Saturday’s DFS card is certainly a tricky one. There are seven day games and eight night games out of the 15-game slate, so the day’s contests are mostly separated split between early or late. Full day players will be able to use any of these options, but each section will include at least one early and one late player/team. It should be a good day of baseball, so let’s make it a profitable one as well.
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The salaries listed are from DraftKings.
Here are the top teams to stack for the big GPPs on Saturday:
Pittsburgh – Rubby de la Rosa is an interesting pitcher to watch throughout the season. In three starts for Arizona so far, he has had a major command problem. He has had some good swing-and-miss stuff with 17 K in 18 IP, but he has also allowed four home runs and 13 runs on 23 hits. His inconsistency from pitch-to-pitch is going to be maddening throughout the season. The Pirates are fairly expensive given the hitter-friendly conditions of Chase Field, but de la Rosa’s fastball ranks among the league’s worst so far this season. The Pirates should take advantage.
St. Louis – Wily Peralta’s early-season woes continued last start against the Reds as he worked seven innings, but gave up six runs. Peralta has been throwing too many meaty pitches this season. He has a 3.79 K/9 and has allowed a .324 BABIP against. Part of the problem for Peralta is that he’s leaving the ball up. After posting a ground ball rate of 51 percent and 53.6 percent over the last two seasons, it’s sitting below 45 percent this season. At a place like Miller Park, pitching up in the zone is a recipe for disaster.
Cleveland – Yes, I’m certifiably insane. Alfredo Simon has a ton of regression red flags in his profile and the Indians are getting their second look at him this season. The first time through, the Indians were 2-for-8 with a walk against Simon. The second time through, they were 0-for-8 with a walk. The third time through, they racked up five straight hits before Simon was pulled in favor of Al Alburquerque. Now that the Indians have seen Simon and got some better the third time through, they’ll be ready for him this time.
Here are the top value hitters for April 25:
Odubel Herrera ($3,300) – Take the good with the bad for Herrera. The rookie strikes out a fair amount, but he’s got good speed, so a high BABIP is certainly possible. Entering play on Friday, Herrera had a .291/.339/.455 slash line and had shown some good extra-base pop. Considering what is usually available at the middle infield positions, saving some money here isn’t a bad idea to grab a stud pitcher or load up on some big bats at the power positions.
Jimmy Rollins ($3,600) – Rollins will draw a pretty favorable matchup on Saturday against Ian Kennedy, who will be making his first start since going on the disabled list for a hamstring problem. It’s always an interesting situation with a pitcher coming off the DL in April because they do all that work building up arm strength in Spring Training and then an injury happens. J-Roll is off to a slow start, but the shortstops that produce are pretty expensive and there are a lot of other spots to fill.
Salvador Perez ($4,000) – John Danks is on the mound for the White Sox against the Royals and that should be a good thing for Salvador Perez. Perez owns a .307/.346/.499 slash against southpaws in his career and he has a 36/25 K/BB ratio in 442 plate appearances. He’s going to put the ball in play and likely elevate it and the White Sox outfield defense is pretty brutal. He’s one of the more expensive catchers, but a very good play for Saturday.
Here are the top value starting pitchers for April 25:
Anthony DeSclafani ($6,900) – Anthony DeSclafani has been terrific. Fangraphs writer Eno Sarris has been beating this drum ever since the Reds acquired DeSclafani and his plus changeup could be a major weapon against the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs have a lot of talent and a lot of upside, but DeSclafani has been a DFS stud at a low price on several occasions this season and it’s possible that he could give us one more gem before regression comes along.
Edinson Volquez ($7,200) – Volquez was dynamite in his last start once again for the Royals. He may be looking at a suspension for his role in the brawl on Thursday night between the White Sox and the Royals, but Volquez would appeal any suspension to make this start and then let the Royals organize their rotation at a better time. The White Sox have quite a few swing-and-miss guys and Volquez has thoroughly enjoyed the defense behind him thus far.
Shelby Miller ($7,300) – Could we be seeing the start of a breakout for Shelby Miller? One huge change from the previous two seasons is that Miller has induced a lot of ground balls in the early going. Increased usage of the two-seamer he started working on last season with the Cardinals and a better mix of cutters and four-seamers have given him another wrinkle in his arsenal. The unfortunate downside of more two-seamers and cutters is a drop in strikeouts, but the Phillies don’t have much of a lineup and Miller average a strikeout per inning last start.