A busy Monday lies ahead in Major League Baseball with 14 games on tap. Fantasy baseball players that want to use the Cleveland vs. Kansas City and Toronto vs. Boston games are restricted to playing those in the “early” matchups, as the 7:05 ET or later games are grouped together in a big 12-game pool of players. It’s a little bit rare to see such a jam-packed schedule for a Monday, since most teams use Mondays for travel but this is a byproduct of the number of off days in April to have contingency plans for bad weather. It should work to our advantage in DFS today with a lot of players to choose from with favorable matchups.
The salaries listed are from DraftKings.
Here are the top lineups to stack for April 27:
Detroit – You could probably do this every day with the Tigers lineup, but a matchup against Tommy Milone is the ideal time to stack the Tigers. You’ll pay a big price, but look what we have to work with. Milone has stranded 85 percent of his runners this season with a 13.9 percent K%. League average, nowadays, is close to 20 percent. Milone has allowed a .196 BABIP despite all of that contact. His 3.38 ERA is accompanied by a 5.41 FIP and a 5.18 xFIP. One underrated element about this play is that Victor Martinez is crushing the ball right-handed. His surgically-repaired left knee has limited him to a .189/.319/.189 slash batting left-handed, but a .417/.533/.500 slash batting right-handed. That’s big for him and the Tigers.
Tampa Bay – The Rays draw Adam Warren on Monday night and it’s a matchup that I liked on my latest edition of The Bettor’s Box. Warren is a converted reliever that lacks a third pitch and some big platoon splits are going to show up against left-handed batters. He’s lost two miles per hour off of his average fastball velocity in the rotation and is showing signs of regression. The Rays don’t have a lot of big bats, so a stack of their lineup is inexpensive and can be very valuable.
Baltimore – Hector Noesi is not very good. He has a 5.23 ERA with a 5.76 FIP and a 5.19 xFIP. By all pitching metrics, including last season’s 4.83 FIP and 4.34 SIERA, he’s at risk of getting rocked every time he takes the mound. This season, Noesi has lost some of his ground ball ability and has allowed more fly balls. That’s bad. Very bad. He has only given up eight hits in 10.1 innings, but he has walked seven. The Orioles don’t walk a whole lot, but they punish mistakes and Noesi makes a lot of them.
Here are the top value hitters for April 27:
Mark Trumbo ($4,300) – Mark Trumbo hasn’t hit for much power yet this season, but the Diamondbacks draw Tyler Matzek on Monday night. Matzek is due for some regression and the Diamondbacks may actually be a decent stacking option once you see who is in the lineup. Matzek has stranded nearly 90 percent of his runners with a below average strikeout rate and a high walk rate. That’s not going to continue, even if the Rockies defense is solid. Given the number of fly balls he has allowed, Matzek’s xFIP is at 6.01. That’s nearly four runs higher than his ERA. When regression hits, it will be bad, and Trumbo could snap out of his power drought with this favorable matchup.
Nick Markakis ($3,400) – With Doug Fister on the mound, the Nationals defense will have to be on top of things and that’s far from a guarantee. The downside to Nick Markakis is that there’s not a whole lot of power in his bat anymore, but he’s going to be batting leadoff against righties for the foreseeable future with his .339/.438/.371 slash in Fredi Gonzalez’s lineup. That means more plate appearances and more opportunities to score runs. The occasional double wouldn’t hurt from Markakis, that’s for sure.
Andrew Susac ($3,300) – With Brandon Belt off to a slow start and southpaw Brett Anderson on the mound, Bruce Bochy may opt to go with Buster Posey at first and Andrew Susac behind the plate. Susac doubled and homered in his last game and has hit well at the minor league levels. His power is his best asset and Anderson has a knack for leaving pitches to drive in the middle of the plate when he misses his spots. Make sure Susac is in the lineup before locking him into your lineups.
Here are the top value pitchers for April 27:
Collin McHugh ($8,700) – If you’re not a believer, become one. McHugh has been throwing the ball like this since early last season and his stuff is exceptional. With good fastball command and a plus-plus curveball, McHugh is hell on right-handed hitters. The Padres have a lot of those. I’ve been on record several times as saying that I would go against the Padres against top right-handers and McHugh falls into that category. As a side note, the under in this game looks like a good play.
Ubaldo Jimenez ($7,200) – I may wind up hating myself for this, but Ubaldo Jimenez is an attractive streaming option against the Chicago White Sox. The White Sox have very few patient hitters. If there’s one big problem with Jimenez, it’s that he can be erratic and walk everybody from the leadoff hitter to the 77-year-old usher in Section 143. Against the White Sox, however, Jimenez’s lack of control may be a good thing. They have swung and missed 10.8 percent of the time this season. Only the Cubs and Twins swing and miss more. Only the Brewers and Twins chase more as a team. It’s risky, but it’s a risk worth taking.
Chase Anderson ($5,400) – Yes, sir. I’m doing this again. Anderson was 3-1 with a 3.52 ERA and a 22/5 K/BB ratio against the Rockies last season. He was 1-1 with a 5.73 ERA at Coors Field, though he allowed six of his seven runs in one start. In the two starts at Chase Field, Anderson was 2-0 with two runs allowed in 12 innings with a 14/1 K/BB ratio. It’s a lot of small samples for Anderson and the Rockies lineup was a little bit watered down by injuries, but this kid can pitch. As good as the Rockies lineup looks on paper, there are nights where they won’t hit.