Fourteen games are on tap in Major League Baseball tonight, since the Baltimore vs. Chicago White Sox game has been postponed. There are quite a few top-notch pitchers on the mound for Tuesday night. Clayton Kershaw and Madison Bumgarner face off once again. Johnny Cueto has the second-highest price tag for his matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers. Tyson Ross, Jeff Samardzija, Julio Teheran, Sonny Gray, and Michael Wacha are among the more reasonably-priced pitchers for April 28. There’s plenty to consider today.
The salaries listed are from DraftKings.
Here are the top teams to stack for April 28:
Chicago Cubs – Jeff Locke is off to a fine start to the season, but there are some red flags in his statistical profile. Those came to light in his last start against the Cubs and now he faces them again. Locke’s walk rate and home run rate are both due for some regression and a powerful Cubs lineup may be able to kickstart that process. The Cubs got 10 baserunners in five innings against Locke in his last start and scored four runs. They struck out seven times, but Locke does not have a lot of depth to his arsenal and that will be on display here. The Cubs are expensive to stack because of their perception, but it may be worth it here.
Colorado – Archie Bradley has done a good job of preventing runs, but a lot of that is due to batted ball luck. He gets a stiff test from the Rockies in this one. Bradley has stranded 84 percent of his runners, despite a strikeout rate well below what he averaged in the minors. The walks have been a problem throughout his career, but Major League hitters make stuff like that hurt more than minor league hitters do. His .149 BABIP is not going to stay that way for long. His 1.45 ERA is accompanied by a 3.72 FIP and a 4.64 xFIP. Regression may come fast or it may come gradually, but this is a very good lineup that will face Bradley on Tuesday night.
Minnesota – Something is wrong with Anibal Sanchez. The stats may not fully show it, but the command profile is a concern. His velocity is down a bit, which may partially be the cold, but he’s thrown too many pitches in the middle of the plate. His walk rate is also up, so the Twins hitters could be in a great position to take advantage. Really, the only things that the Twins lineup excelled at last season were walking and hitting bombs. This is a cheap, under the radar stack that could win you some money if it comes to fruition. No Twins hitter costs more than $4,200.
Here are the top value hitters for April 28:
Jake Marisnick ($3,100) – By the time the DFS guys change Marisnick’s salary, it could be too late. He’s still tearing the cover off the ball and returned from a minor injury to hit another home run and swipe two bags on Sunday. He offers power and speed at a very low price, even if it’s against a quality pitcher like Tyson Ross. There’s no reason Marisnick shouldn’t be streamed on a daily basis until he cools off given his low salary.
Alex Guerrero ($3,000) – Alex Guerrero may add some outfield eligibility soon in light of Carl Crawford’s injury. Guerrero already slots into 2B/3B slots in DFS and he’s a bargain at $3,000. All of his stats need to be taken with a grain of salt because of sample sizes, but he hit in the minors last season and has been a tremendous addition to the lineup for the Dodgers so far at the Major League level this season. It’s hard to find his upside at 2B for this price.
Buster Posey ($3,600) – Clayton Kershaw is awesome, but Buster Posey is pretty good in his own right. Posey’s low salary puts him in the class of first basemen like Ike Davis, Garrett Jones, CJ Cron, and Ryan Howard on Tuesday night. Posey’s slow start is due in large part to a .258 BABIP, which is almost 70 points below his career average. His walk rate is up, so that’s a good sign because he’s still getting on base despite the bad luck. He’ll get it turned around soon.
Here are the top value pitchers for April 28:
JA Happ ($6,300) – Happ has not set the world on fire in his first three starts, but he’s done a good job of keeping hitters off balance. He also hasn’t hurt himself with walks. His swinging strike rate isn’t too far off of last season’s when he punched out 19.8 perent of batters. That’s pretty close to league average, so Happ could see an elevation in his strikeout rate. Given the low walk rate, it seems he’s actively trying to pitch to contact. That may change.
Chase Whitley ($4,100) – Chase Whitley actually flashed some decent stuff last season. His elevated ERA was due to a .361 BABIP against, and his 3.81 FIP and 3.79 xFIP are better indicators of his talent. He only walked 4.7 percent of batters in the rotation last season. Joe Girardi may not let Whitley work too deep into this ballgame, but the idea of using Whitley with one of the heavy hitters in today’s pitching market is kind of attractive to save more for hitting.
Tyson Ross ($9,200) – If there’s anybody that can neutralize the Astros lineup, Tyson Ross is a safe bet. Ross has some swing-and-miss ability with the slider and the righty-heavy Astros lineup is a good matchup for him. Righties posted a .226/.295/.337 slash against him with a 98/29 K/BB ratio last season. At home, righties were held to a .171/.241/.253 slash. Ross doesn’t give up many home runs and keeps the ball on the ground, so he is the best of the second-tier of pitchers for Tuesday.