The daily fantasy MLB card for Wednesday is a tricky one. There are five getaway day games, a couple of 6:10 p.m. ET starts, and then a collection of night games. Today may be the kind of day to isolate the day games and night games rather than play an all day contest. With the split schedule today, each section of lineup tips and suggestions will feature at least one player from the early games. There is definitely some value with the starting pitching market today and it should be another exciting day of DFS action.
The salaries listed are from DraftKings.
Here are the top lineups to stack for April 29:
St. Louis – I’m still baffled by the way that Aaron Harang has pitched over the last two seasons. This season, as it was last season, regression is coming for the veteran right-hander. He has a stunningly low BABIP against of .203. With a rising fly ball rate, Harang’s home run rate is in dire need of normalization. His 3.1 percent HR/FB rate is the third-best of all pitchers that have given up at least one home run in 20 or more innings. SIERA, which is one of the best metrics to use for ERA estimation, has Harang at 3.78. His current ERA is 1.37. Matt Carpenter is the most expensive Cardinal at $4,600, so stacking the Cardinals is very affordable.
Minnesota – Sometimes regression is gradual. Sometimes it hits all at once. Shane Greene was due for regression and it hit in a big way against the Cleveland Indians. Greene is still due for some regression when he takes the ball against the Twins on Wednesday. Greene has yet to allow a home run this season, which is surprising given the sheer number of balls in play. In 27 innings, Greene has a 12/7 K/BB ratio. He has a 4.74 SIERA to go with a 3.00 ERA. A .253 BABIP against with an 11.8 percent strikeout rate is not sustainable at all. If Greene doesn’t get blown up again here, look for it very soon.
Los Angeles Dodgers – You’ll pay a little bit of a premium for this stack, but Ryan Vogelsong has no business being in a starting rotation. Through 16.1 innings, two starts and two relief appearances, Vogey has a 7.71 ERA with a 6.51 FIP, and a 5.18 xFIP. The only reason his FIP suggests positive regression is because he has 15 strikeouts in 16 innings. He has allowed 33 baserunners in 16.1 innings and there was talk of skipping this start. His velocity has fallen yet again and his days as a Major Leaguer may be numbered.
Here are the top value hitters for April 29:
Alex Gordon ($4,100) – The only downside to Alex Gordon is where Ned Yost slots him in the lineup. Gordon might be the best pure hitter on the Royals, but Yost consistently bats him fifth or sixth when he should be in the top three. In any event, Gordon rakes Indians pitching and a matchup against Danny Salazar is pretty good for him. Since 2011, the top 10 fastball hitters are Votto, Miggy, McCutchen, A. Gonzalez, Kemp, Trout, Choo, Ortiz, Gordon, and Goldschmidt. Gordon’s in some pretty good company there and he’ll get plenty of fastballs from Salazar.
Freddie Freeman ($4,000) – It’s a bit surprising to see Freeman priced this low given the season that Jordan Zimmermann is having. Zimmermann’s strikeout rate is way down and his fly ball rate is way up. Those are two things that a pitcher does not want to see. Freeman is off to another fine season with a .376 wOBA, which is what we’ve come to expect from one of the game’s most underrated hitters. His walk rate is a down a tick because he’s one of the few big bats in the Braves lineup, but Zimmermann throws strikes anyways.
Kevin Kiermaier ($3,000) – The bats are a little bit limited in the early games, but Kiermaier is a solid, cheap option against Michael Pineda. The concern is that the Rays probably won’t score a lot of runs, but you can get some value out of Kiermaier at the top of the Rays order against a pitcher who is much better against righties than lefties. Along those same lines, James Loney at $3,200 might not be a bad option either, especially if you’re playing the early contests.
Here are the top value starting pitchers for April 29:
Michael Pineda ($7,400) – The lone concern about Pineda is that he was expecting to start on Friday instead of today, but Masahiro Tanaka’s unsurprising return to the disabled list has put Pineda back on his regular day. The Rays are struggling to hit right now and Pineda has reliably averaged 21 points per start in April. He has great stuff. Health is the question. The only regression in his statistical profile comes in the form of a BABIP that should improve. His strikeout stuff is there. His control is there. The command has been pretty good. He’s a good buy-low guy for Wednesday.
Carlos Martinez ($7,700) – CMart has a fine matchup here against the lowly Philadelphia Phillies. Martinez punched out eight over seven innings last start. One major concern is that the velocity was way down from when he was in the bullpen, but the Phillies haven’t seen much of the talented right-hander, so he can get by with some good pitch sequencing and Yadier Molina. Against teams that have faced Martinez frequently, he’ll be a fade candidate unless the velocity shows up.
Mat Latos ($7,300) – It’s not as crazy as it might seem. In terms of pitchers due for some positive regression, Latos is certainly up there. He has a 7.31 ERA thanks to a .415 BABIP against. His 3.52 FIP is right in line with his career averages and one bad start is really skewing the traditional metrics. Latos has had some trouble working deep into games, but he has only allowed two earned runs in each of his last three starts after getting blown up by Atlanta in the opener. He could average a strikeout per inning and throw a quality start to allow you to spend on more expensive hitters.