The daily grind of playing at DraftKings and FanDuel seems to be a little bit tougher on Sundays. Decisions have to be made early in the day with so many afternoon games and Sunday is a day that managers use to rest some of their players. Paying attention to lineups is very important, especially for those teams playing a day game after a night game. A lot of back of the rotation arms are on the mound for Sunday, so it’s important to find good value with those cheaper options in order to load your lineup with top bats.
Sign up today at DraftKings and FanDuel to get started with daily fantasy leagues. Use these tips and the tips from the twice-a-week MLB betting podcast, The Bettor’s Box, to improve your abilities and be the next big winner.
The salaries listed are from DraftKings.
Here are the top lineups to stack for May 3:
Seattle – The Mariners offense has gotten off to a really slow start as a group, but seeing Roberto Hernandez could be just what they need to turn it around. The lefty-heavy lineup should have some success against Hernandez and his heavy use of the sinker. Hernandez has seen a velocity drop, which may actually work in his favor because the pitch will move more, but there are some signs of regression. Hernandez has a .229 BABIP again, which isn’t sustainable as a ground ball pitcher with a mediocre infield defense behind him. Lefties have a career .285/.360/.442 slash in 2,986 plate appearances against Hernandez.
Minnesota – It’s John Danks Day for the Chicago White Sox and that’s probably not a good thing. Danks’s best start this season is a 6 IP, 3 ER outing in his last start. On the season, Danks has a 5.64 ERA with a 4.98 FIP and a 4.51 xFIP. His command has been way off in the early going with a 31 percent ground ball rate, which is well below his career average of 42 percent. With declining velo for a sixth straight season, Danks cannot live above the best and his changeup has been really flat this season.
Tampa Bay – I don’t love this one, but I have to stay consistent because I talked about Wei-Yin Chen on Thursday’s edition of The Bettor’s Box and how he was a huge regression candidate. If it doesn’t come in this start, it will come soon. Chen allowed five unearned runs last start and now has a 2.78 ERA with a 5.61 FIP and a 5.16 xFIP. His BABIP against is just .177 because four of the 15 hits he has allowed have left the ballpark. His walk rate is up and he has also hit three batters already this season. A start is coming where balls in play find holes and it could be very ugly if the command problem persists.
Here are the top value hitters for May 3:
Kendrys Morales ($3,700) – Morales has posted a .306/.370/.531 slash against right-handers so far this season as a key contributor to the Kansas City Royals offensive juggernaut. There seems to be something wrong with Anibal Sanchez. Sanchez is working up in the zone a lot, which has led to an increase in strikeouts, but also a major increase in home runs allowed. The fastball velocity isn’t there, and it’s back to his 2010-2011 speeds. He’s throwing more strikes overall, but fewer quality strikes, and Morales and the Royals could certainly take advantage on Sunday.
Jean Segura ($3,800) – The Brewers are waking up from their season-long slumber and the return of Carlos Gomez has had a lot to do with it. One of the players having a quality season for the Brewers is Jean Segura. Segura doesn’t provide a lot in the form of power, but he has already swiped five bases and the Brewers offense has shown some signs of life. With a few pricey shortstops for Sunday, Segura is a good value play.
Juan Lagares ($3,600) – The Mets take on Doug Fister on Sunday, which means there will be plenty of balls in play. That helps a player like Lagares, who has some swing and miss and plate discipline problems, but can make things happen with his speed when he puts the ball in play. The Nationals defense has played poorly behind Fister this season, so the Mets could be able to hang a number with Lagares right in the middle of it.
Here are the top value pitchers for May 3:
Jarred Cosart ($6,500) – Cosart has some regression in the profile, but there are some encouraging signs as well. He’s showing the best control of his career with a Zone% above 50 percent for the first time in his career. That has led to a higher percentage of swings and misses, specifically on pitches outside the strike zone. That’s encouraging for his strikeout rate because it could be a sign that his secondary offerings are becoming more polished. The Phillies offense is pretty bad and Cosart’s Marlins are rolling right now.
Trevor Bauer ($7,900) – You take the bad with the great with regards to Trevor Bauer. The great is the amount of strikeouts he can rack up. The bad is the number of walks he can allow. The Blue Jays are ninth in BB% and 15th in K%, but that is a rate of more than 20 percent. The scary part about Bauer in this start is that he can be prone to allowing home runs, but his stuff is showing a lot more refinement this season and he was very vocal following the team’s last start. He’s pitching with a purpose and that makes him a good bet on Sunday.
Michael Wacha ($8,400) – The strikeout rate for Michael Wacha is well below average and it’s time for some positive regression in that area. The swinging strike rate is down with more contact across the board, but Wacha is pounding the zone with regularity. The biggest difference is simply that hitters are swinging more. The changeup hasn’t quite got there yet, but a matchup against the Pirates is an opportunity for Wacha to get everything on track. The Pirates offense has been putrid this season and Wacha is always a good bet with an elite Cardinals defense behind him.