It’s a rare Monday in Major League Baseball in that there are no wrap around getaway day games. All 11 games on the schedule begin at 7:05 p.m. ET or later, so daily fantasy baseball players have all day to analyze the matchups to construct their lineups. The starting pitcher market is very top heavy with Felix Hernandez, Clayton Kershaw, and Madison Bumgarner all in action. It might be the type of day to pony up and take two of those three horses and find some value in other places.
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The salaries listed are from DraftKings.
Here are the top lineups to stack for May 4:
Washington – The Nationals will take their swings against David Phelps on Monday night after winning back-to-back 1-0 games against the Mets. The Nats are off to a slow start offensively, but there are some good signs in their statistical profile as a team. Most of their plate discipline statistics rank right around league average, so they should start to regress to the mean in that regard. Proven hitters like Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth have BABIPs of .250 or lower and those are going to have some positive regression. This is a pretty affordable stack to use one of the top pitchers and a good value play.
Chicago Cubs – As you heard on Monday’s edition of The Bettor’s Box, Carlos Martinez is a pitcher in line for some regression. The Cubs offense is certainly capable of delivering that type of result. The Cubs are taking on a pitcher with a little bit of a home run problem, but a very good BABIP against. With a lot of power bats and guys with great bat speed, the Cubs should be able to barrel up some balls and hit them hard. Martinez has a 1.73 ERA, but a 4.43 FIP, and a 3.60 SIERA. The SIERA is very respectable, but it also speaks to the regression that should be coming.
San Diego – If this one pays off, you will have a great advantage over other GPP players. Madison Bumgarner seems to be experiencing a little bit of a postseason hangover. The stuff is not as sharp and it’s elevated. Bumgarner’s ground ball rate is down about five precent from last season. He has basically abandoned the use of his changeup, a good weapon against right-handed hitters. The Padres have plenty of good right-handed sticks in their lineup and none of them cost more than $3,900 with what is projected to be a very low-scoring game.
Here are the top value hitters for May 4:
Mike Napoli ($3,900) – Napoli has finally hit a couple of home runs lately and it could be a sign that he’s coming out of. He’s a good power hitter off to a slow start, which is understandable in his mid-30s. Cheap power potential like this is too much to ignore because of how valuable home runs are. At some point, he’ll get hot. You’ll want to be ahead of the curve when he does.
Stephen Vogt ($3,400) – This isn’t the first time I’ve advocated Stephen Vogt in DFS formats. He continues to be underpriced as a top notch platoon bat against righties. Phil Hughes is around the plate a lot, which means that there’s a tendency to give up long balls. Vogt and the A’s offense have won a lot of money for over bettors this season and he’s a great option if you want to roll with Hernandez and Kershaw as your starting pitchers.
Cameron Maybin ($2,800) – Watch for the lineups before you lock this one in. Maybin has been getting some more playing time for a Braves offense that is looking for a spark. The Phillies send Aaron Harang to the hill on Monday night. If Maybin is in there, look for him to play aggressively to try and get more playing time. That could include trying to steal a couple of bases or swinging early in the count against Harang. He could provide some nice value at a very low price.
Here are the top value pitchers for May 4:
Clay Buchholz ($6,800) – Clay Buchholz is so hit or miss that it’s hard to rely on him from start to start. In this one, however, Buchholz takes on a Tampa Bay Rays offense that has not done a whole lot lately. The Rays scored four runs in three games against the Orioles over the weekend and Buchholz has the ability to rack up some strikeouts if his stuff is sharp. There’s risk involved, but you can’t argue with the matchup.
Dallas Keuchel ($8,000) – Keuchel is clearly underpriced against an awful Texas Rangers lineup. Of all the starters on the hill tonight, only Felix Hernandez has averaged more points per start than Keuchel. The Astros are rolling along right now and Keuchel’s team is the biggest favorite in the betting market. It’s unlikely that Keuchel would get blasted by the Rangers, so there is very little bust potential from him tonight.
Alex Wood ($8,400) –Wood draws the lowly Phillies on Monday night as he looks to bounce back from one of his worst starts as a professional. Wood has experienced a big decline in swings and misses due to some inconsistent breaking stuff. He’s too good to continue with that type of performance and the Phillies could be the cure for what ails him.