Tuesday’s schedule features all 30 teams in action and all 15 games played at night, so it’s a perfect day for daily fantasy baseball. Most teams will have their lineups out in plenty of time and players will have all day to study the matchups. Monday was a quiet night for offense as only three of the 11 games went over the Las Vegas betting total. With a vast array of pitchers on the mound on Tuesday, offense could be the theme of the night.
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The salaries listed are from DraftKings.
Here are the top lineups to stack for May 5:
Detroit – At some point, Jeff Samardzija will get it together. A matchup against the Detroit Tigers may not be that point. Samardzija’s last start came on extra rest in an empty stadium, so it was a unique set of circumstances. The problem for Samardzija has been command. He is looking at the lowest strikeout rate of his career over his first 32 innings and highest line drive rate at 28 percent. Hitters are not missing the pitches in the zone. The Tigers have a collection of extremely talented hitters that come a tad cheaper than usual because of Samardzija’s name.
Arizona – Tyler Matzek is due for some big regression. The concern with stacking Arizona is that it can be tough to do because their middle infield situation is kind of weird. In a game like this at Coors Field, every hitter involved in the game has an inflated price. Matzek has a 2.70 ERA with a 4.88 FIP and a 5.78 xFIP. He has a 13/13 K/BB ratio. The Diamondbacks should be able to take advantage and the southpaw allowed a .300/.374/.474 slash to righties last season. At the very least, Paul Goldschmidt and Mark Trumbo should be in your lineup.
San Diego – The Padres were shut down by Madison Bumgarner in the opening game of their series with the Giants, but they face Ryan Vogelsong on Tuesday night. Vogelsong should be out of the rotation very soon with his 9.31 ERA and ugly peripheral stats. The Padres will struggle with good righties, which Vogelsong is not. They’re going to be expensive to stack tonight, but it could be worth it. Also, players can stack Astros and Pirates if they wish. It’s a good night for stacking if you can pick the right team(s).
Here are the top value hitters for May 5:
Pedro Alvarez ($3,700) – I immediately went to look at the options for this game because Michael Lorenzen left everything up and flat in his first start. That plays right into the hands of a hitter like Pedro Alvarez. Alvarez has hit a few home runs already this season and is a very good platoon bat against right-handed pitchers. Lorenzen will get better, as his stuff has decent projections, but hitters like Alvarez can catch up to mistakes in his first couple of starts.
Jorge Soler ($4,100) – Coming off of an off day, Soler is a great streaming option against Tyler Lyons and the Cardinals. Lyons is a pitch-to-contact lefty and he has done a good job of being selective against southpaws in the early going. It’s a small sample, but his 7/5 K/BB ratio against lefties suggests that he picks them up a lot better and he could get something flat and out over the plate from Lyons. The Cubs offense is full of dangerous hitters and Soler is in the middle of that.
Ryan Raburn ($3,000) – Ryan Raburn has been raking against southpaw pitching this season, much like he did in 2013. Raburn gets another shot at Jason Vargas on Tuesday night. Raburn has a video game-esque .457/.474/.743 slash at lefties on the year. Vargas is not an overpowering guy, so Raburn should get some good swings in once again. Platoon bats can be undervalued (see Mark Reynolds) in DFS formats, so always be aware of those types of guys.
Here are the top value pitchers for May 5:
Shane Greene ($6,500) – Back-to-back clunkers from Shane Greene certainly hurt his perception, both in the betting market and in daily fantasy formats. Regression can be gradual or it can be sudden. For Greene, it was very sudden, spanning just two starts. He can get back on track with a good matchup against a bad White Sox lineup. He’s still getting contact on a lot of pitches outside of the zone, which often leads to outs and weak contact, and he’s pitching from ahead in the count. The White Sox swing and miss a ton.
Drew Smyly ($7,800) – Drew Smyly has a little bit of an inflated price at this stage, but he is the real deal. The Red Sox lineup has really struggled at the outset and now Hanley Ramirez is out for at least the next few games and likely longer. Smyly has some above average strikeout stuff, though he is liable to hang a pitch or two. The Red Sox don’t have a lot of experience against Smyly and unfamiliar lefties often have success.
Zack Greinke ($9,800) – Yes, there’s value on Zack Greinke. The Brewers were able to get to Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers bullpen, but they have a lot of right-handed bats. The only lefty that can really make things happen is Adam Lind. Greinke should be able to put together a solid outing against a Brewers lineup with a .293 wOBA against righties.