Sunday is shaping up to be a tough day on the diamond for DFS players. All 30 teams are in action, but there are 10 early starts and just five games that begin at 4:05 p.m. ET or later. Some quick decisions have to be made before heading out for Mother’s Day, with your own, with the mother-in-law, or perhaps with somebody else’s mother. With 20 of the 30 MLB teams in action on Monday, some key players may be getting days off, so keep that in mind as you fill out your lineups.
Play with confidence at either DraftKings or FanDuel because daily fantasy sports are completely legal, with the exception of a few states. Use these tips and the tips from the twice-a-week MLB betting podcast, The Bettor’s Box, to improve your abilities and fill out the winning lineup.
The salaries listed are from DraftKings.
Here are the top teams to stack for May 10:
Miami – Ryan Vogelsong’s magic act last week had a lot to do with regression and a cool, crisp night in San Francisco. He takes on a Marlins team that has a little bit of pop on Sunday in an afternoon game. The ball carries a lot better during the day at AT&T Park than it does at night. Vogelsong’s seven shutout last start was the anomaly, not the norm. The Marlins have a pretty decent offense now that Christian Yelich is back in the fold. Once you get past Giancarlo Stanton and Dee Gordon (who is DTD, so be careful), the rest of the Marlins lineup is cheap to stack.
Chicago Cubs – Matt Garza is off to a rough start this season. His strikeout rate has dropped for the fifth straight season and his walk rate has taken a major jump. He’s been fortunate to strand nearly 77 percent of runners to keep his ERA in the 4.50s. His FIP of 5.46 and 4.71 SIERA suggest that similar performances will continue. His HR/FB% is due for some regression, but his command has been horrible so far this season. Hitters are driving the ball to all fields. Anthony Rizzo is one of the most expensive players today, but the rest of the Cubs are quite affordable.
Kansas City – You could probably stack either of Detroit or Kansas City and yield some positive results, but Kansas City is the offense to trust a little bit more. Shane Greene’s Regression Tour makes another stop on Sunday against a Royals lineup that is tearing the cover off the ball this season. The reason it’s not Detroit against Chris Young is because Young has an incredible ability to induce weak aerial contact. Comerica has a huge center field. It may not matter, but the Royals are in a better position than the Tigers.
Here are the top value hitters for May 10:
Brandon Belt ($4,100) – Brandon Belt has been rather quiet so far this season, but he’ll take his cuts against Mat Latos in a very favorable matchup on Sunday. Belt has lacked power production, but he is taking good swings with a .296/.387/.420 slash. His strikeout rate is a little bit high, but he has seven doubles over his last 10 games, so he’s starting to drive the ball a bit more. That’s a good sign and a day game at AT&T Park could be beneficial.
Jayson Werth ($4,000) – Alex Wood has had some command troubles this season and Jayson Werth is gradually starting to come around. He went deep on Friday and walked twice on Saturday. Sometimes a hitter can take his way out of a slump by being more selective and Werth seems to be doing some of that of late. He has good power upside at a reasonable cost for Sunday.
Logan Forsythe ($3,200) – Logan Forsythe and the Rays take on Wandy Rodriguez on Sunday. Forsythe has been swinging a good stick this season with a .287/.363/.446 slash and he’s been hitting both righties and lefties. Wandy Rod has been surprisingly good over his last couple of starts, but the Rays offense is looking to bust out against somebody and he is as good of a candidate as any.
Here are the top value pitchers for May 10:
Trevor May ($5,900) – Trevor May has been throwing the ball well this season. His control and command have been pretty good and his .341 BABIP is a byproduct of a drop in strikeout rate. The Indians offense is very inconsistent on a game-to-game basis, so there’s definitely some value in May at this price tag. May baffled the Indians earlier this season and has a 4.15 ERA but a 2.71 FIP and a 3.85 xFIP. Some positive regression may be coming.
Jake Odorizzi ($7,200) – With the latest blow to the Tampa Bay rotation, Jake Odorizzi’s role is now magnified. Drew Smyly will undergo shoulder surgery just after the announcement that Alex Cobb will undergo Tommy John surgery. That means that Odorizzi and Chris Archer will have to carry the load for this staff. Odorizzi is a bargain in the low $7000s for this start against a mediocre Rangers lineup.
Bartolo Colon ($7,300) – The rotund right-hander has been dynamite to start the season and there’s no reason to see that stopping against a Phillies lineup that isn’t very good. Colon has a 34/1 K/BB ratio over 40.1 innings so far this season, which is incredible. His control and command are phenomenal and the occasional home run he will give up is usually of the solo variety.