Ten games are on tap for Monday as 10 MLB teams enjoy a day off from the rigors of the season. All of them are night games, so it should be a good day to plan out your daily fantasy MLB lineups. The starting pitcher market is definitely tiered for Monday, with top arms like Max Scherzer, Zack Greinke, Jon Lester and Gerrit Cole to go along with middle-tier guys like Shelby Miller, Jacob deGrom and Jeff Samardzija. Wild cards like CC Sabathia and Rick Porcello will be streamed in lineups spending a premium on hitting. It’s a good day to get involved with DFS, especially if you have never played before.
Play with confidence at either DraftKings or FanDuel because daily fantasy sports are completely legal, with the exception of a few states. Use these tips and the tips from the twice-a-week MLB betting podcast, The Bettor’s Box, to improve your abilities and fill out the winning lineup.
The salaries listed are from DraftKings.
Here are the top teams to stack for May 11:
Los Angeles Dodgers – The Dodgers have a favorable matchup on Monday against right-hander Tom Koehler. There’s nothing exciting about Koehler’s arsenal or statistical profile. Last season’s 3.81 ERA was accompanied by a 4.15 xFIP and a 4.16 SIERA. Regression has happened this season, specifically with Koehler’s HR/FB%, which sits at 15.6 percent. Bryce Harper did a number on this in Koehler’s last start, but he’s a pitch-to-contact guy that really benefits from the enormous outfield at Marlins Park. Koehler has a career 4.71 ERA and .428 SLG against in road starts in his career.
Baltimore – Marco Estrada is one of those guys that may have a bit of success his first time or two around the league, but his heavy change-up reliance leaves him with a small arsenal as a starting pitcher. In his first start of the season last time out, Estrada gave up five runs on eight hits in just 4.2 innings of work. The Blue Jays have some serious issues in middle relief and the Orioles should get into the bullpen early, after doing damage against Estrada. Chris Davis costs the most at $4,800, so stacking the Birds isn’t a bad idea at all.
Kansas City – The Royals are in a bit of a tough spot because they played so late into the night on Sunday with the ESPN game and a lengthy rain delay. Colby Lewis is a regression candidate with a 2.61 ERA but a 4.26 xFIP and a 4.09 SIERA. Fly ball pitchers are a tough sell in Arlington and the warmer weather is going to help the ball carry. The lefty-heavy Royals lineup takes on a pitcher with a .282/.355/.471 career slash against vs. left-handed hitters and a .360 wOBA. Lefties regularly barrel up the ball against Lewis and his regression could certainly come in this start.
Here are the top value hitters for May 11:
Michael Cuddyer ($3,700) – This is Michael Cuddyer’s day to shine. The Mets knew that Cuddyer could not handle playing the outfield and his Coors Field numbers were inflated. But, these are the days that Cuddyer needs to step up. The Mets face southpaw Jon Lester and Cuddyer’s major strength is hitting left-handed pitchers. Cuddyer is hitting .292/.393/.417 against lefties this season which is not a big surprise. The Cubs defense has been awful behind Lester, which increases Cuddyer’s chances of getting some hits.
Josh Reddick ($3,700) – Josh Reddick is killing right-handed pitching this season. Eleven of his 27 hits against righties are extra-base hits and he has 11 walks against eight strikeouts. That’s a .342/.422/.620 slash in 90 plate appearances. Reddick has always shown a pretty sharp platoon split. Rick Porcello has had some issues on the mound for the Red Sox this season and sinker guys usually have some platoon split troubles with left-handed hitters.
Evan Longoria ($4,200) – Evan Longoria is tied with Kris Bryant as the ninth-most expensive 3B in DraftKings lineups today. Longo is in the midst of a bounce back season and now has a .292/.402/.491 slash on the season. He has slaughtered left-handed pitching over a small sample size of 30 plate appearances with a .455/.600/.636 slash. It’s a small sample, but Longoria has a .924 OPS in his career against left-handed pitching, so he has made a career out of raking lefties. He faces CC Sabathia on Monday.
Here are the top value starting pitchers for May 11:
CC Sabathia ($7,800) – The hefty lefty draws a Rays lineup that is dependent on drawing walks to be successful. Sabathia doesn’t issue many of those. He’s been the victim of a lot of bad luck this season with a .345 BABIP against and a HR/FB% that should come down. His 5.45 ERA is accompanied by a 4.39 FIP, and a 3.86 xFIP. Positive regression is coming for Sabathia and the Rays lineup is a good matchup for a pitcher like him because he doesn’t issue many free passes.
Gerrit Cole ($8,900) – Gerrit Cole has been spectacular this season and there’s no reason it should stop against the Phillies. Cole’s strikeout rate has climbed, while his walk rate has dropped, and his ground ball rate is currently sitting just below 60 percent. All of those are excellent signs. It’s interesting to note that Cole has one of the lowest pull percentages among starting pitchers, which is a big reason why hitters aren’t doing a lot of damage.
Zack Greinke ($10,200) – This is one of those days where you should probably take one of the top two starters. There are some good second and third-tier options available, but most of the guys below the top few have some big blowup potential. Greinke should mow through the Marlins lineup. The Marlins rank 22nd in wRC+ against righties and they are 25th in slugging percentage. They don’t walk and they swing and miss quite a bit. Greinke could rack up a very nice stat line tonight.