The Cleveland Indians and St. Louis Cardinals play at 6:10 p.m. ET tonight, but every other game on the May 12 slate starts at 7:05 or later. It’s a good day for DFS players with plenty of time to sort through the latest baseball news and lineups. Tuesday is a very interesting day for DraftKings players because no starting pitchers cost more than $9,400. It’s affordable to take the aces and still put together a good lineup. Let’s win some big bucks today by putting the winning formula together.
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The salaries listed are from DraftKings.
Here are the top teams to stack for May 12:
Oakland – The A’s will take their swings against Justin Masterson on Tuesday and this has been a great matchup for the A’s in the past. The lineup looks a little bit different now, but Masterson is 2-7 with a 6.61 ERA in his career against the A’s. Why? Because the A’s often rank among the teams that utilize the highest percentage of platoon advantages. The A’s will throw a lineup full of lefties at Masterson and he has always struggled with them. Masterson has allowed 57 baserunners in 33 innings and the A’s should get plenty of opportunities.
Detroit – Kyle Gibson gets thrown into the Tigers’ den on Tuesday night. Gibson is due for some enormous regression. With one of the league’s worst strikeout rates at 7.1 percent, Gibson has an 11/15 K/BB ratio, but a 2.97 ERA. His 4.66 FIP and 5.13 xFIP are signs that regression is imminent and Tuesday is when it begins. Gibson allowed six runs on eight hits in 3.2 innings and walked five in his first start against Detroit. Expect more of the same tonight.
Kansas City – I have been waiting a week for this game. Nick Martinez is 2-0 with a spectacular 1.47 ERA in six starts this season, but regression is imminent. Martinez has stranded 79 percent of baserunners with a terrible strikeout rate this season. His 3.39 FIP is due to a lack of home runs allowed, but his 4.60 xFIP and 4.71 SIERA are good indicators of future performance. Against a Royals lineup that makes a lot of solid contact, Martinez’s regression train will make its first stop in Arlington on Tuesday.
Here are the top value hitters for May 12:
Nolan Arenado ($3,900) – Arenado hasn’t done a whole lot since his hot start, but he’ll get to take his hacks against CJ Wilson on Tuesday. Arenado has fared very well against lefties throughout his career and Wilson has some command problems. Wilson has been the benefactor of a .246 BABIP against so far this season and the Rockies could provide some regression. If they do, Arenado should be right in the middle of it. Righties posted a .273/.365/.409 slash last season against Wilson.
Andrelton Simmons ($3,900) – Known for his defense, Andrelton Simmons is putting together quite an offensive season this year. In the two-hole on Monday, Simmons homered and provided the bulk of the Braves offense in a 2-1 win. He’s batting .282/.346/.460 for the season and his BABIP is a little bit on the low side given his high rate of putting the ball in play. It’s hard to remember that this is only Simmons’s third full season in the big leagues and he jumped straight from Double-A. It takes time to become a good MLB hitter and Simmons may have turned the corner.
Mark Canha ($3,400) – Canha is the latest Billy Beane find to be a productive bat. Canha has a .253/.317/.442 slash and he has shown the ability to swing at strikes. He has actually been a lot better against same-side pitching this season, which is increasingly rare in today’s MLB. He provides some cheap power and also has flexibility with eligibility at both 1B and OF in daily fantasy formats.
Here are the top value starting pitchers for May 12:
Collin McHugh ($7,400) – I don’t get it. Collin McHugh continues to deal and get disrespected in daily fantasy formats. He draws a lackluster Giants offense on Tuesday night and, most importantly, it’s another team that has not seen much of McHugh. His curveball and fastball are two legit MLB pitches and strikeouts are a possibility against a lineup that has not faced him much. The strand rate is a little bit high and could regress, but his home run rate should regress as well, which is why his 3.39 xFIP is only 0.1 runs above his ERA.
Rubby de la Rosa ($6,700) – The Nationals offense has come around in a big way, but de la Rosa is a different type of hurler. He’s one of those “effectively wild” types of guys. De la Rosa was dynamite against the Padres his last time out and has enjoyed being in the National League so far. The strikeout rate is up, the walk rate is down, and the 4.38 ERA shows signs of positive regression with a 3.48 xFIP and a 3.36 SIERA. It might be time to buy in to de la Rosa, though the control profile is still a little bit iffy.
Mike Fiers ($8,500) – The time is now to buy in to Mike Fiers. The Brewers right-hander shows signs of very positive regression. He’s missing bats at a great clip, but command has been a concern with 1.82 HR/9 and a .408 BABIP against. Considering that home runs don’t count towards BABIP, that’s a lot of bad luck on balls in play. His 3.33 xFIP and 3.22 SIERA are well below his 5.46 ERA. The White Sox have a subpar lineup that strikes out a lot. Fiers is a definite buy candidate for Tuesday night.