There are a couple of early getaway day games out west on Wednesday in Major League Baseball and the Cleveland Indians continue their test of 6:10 p.m. ET start times against the St. Louis Cardinals. Players can find all day contests or three-game early contests with those games, but the focus for today’s article will be on the 12 night games. That leaves out the Indians, Cardinals, Red Sox, Athletics, Nationals, and Diamondbacks from today’s article. There are plenty of good options in the night games, so let’s cash some contests tonight.
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The salaries listed are from DraftKings.
Here are the top teams to stack for May 13:
Kansas City – The Royals had a pretty good offensive day against Nick Martinez and the Texas Rangers bullpen as Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, and Alex Gordon all homered. They could have similar results against Yovani Gallardo on Wednesday night. There aren’t any big signs of regression Gallardo’s profile and his 4.19 ERA and 4.37 FIP are pretty accurate given the league change. But, what that means is that he’s just not a very good pitcher. It’s a small sample, but 85 lefties have posted a combined SLG of .487 against Gallardo this season. The Royals lineup, as we know, is loaded with lefties.
Baltimore – Aaron Sanchez has experienced some positives over his last couple of starts as he may be getting more comfortable pitching in the big leagues. Regression is coming. Sanchez has a walk rate of 17.6 percent. The Orioles don’t walk a lot, but their chase rate isn’t wildly out of control. Sanchez has a .239 BABIP against and an 81.5 percent strand rate. With a 3.62 ERA, but a 5.70 FIP, and a 4.95 xFIP, he’s due for a blowup here real soon.
Houston – Tim Hudson gave up 15 hits in his last start against the Marlins. It’s possible that the 39-year-old has simply hit the wall. He’s on pace for the highest home run rate of his career and the lowest strikeout rate of his career. Hudson is still getting ground balls at a high rate, but that will lead to hits. With Houston’s team speed and power, a lot of baserunners are going to increase their chances of hanging a big number and that’s precisely what they can do against Hudson.
Here are the top value hitters for May 13:
Josh Harrison ($3,400) – Josh Harrison is off to an awful start to the season. He’s batting .177/.218/.310 and his last 10 games have been even worse. Nevertheless, Harrison is getting extremely unlucky on balls in play. He has above average speed, but a .189 BABIP on the season. He’s going to come around and his value right now is at its lowest point. What that means for you is that he’s a bargain in the event that he can get it going. Cole Hamels is a tough assignment, but Harrison posted a .345/.370/.487 slash against southpaws last season. He could be a diamond in the deep rough.
James Loney ($3,500) – Loney will have a nice platoon advantage on Wednesday night against Adam Warren for the Yankees. Loney’s downside is that he doesn’t provide a lot of power, but he’s a consistent hitter with a .228 BABIP on the season. That’s going to regress in a positive way and a chance to get some swings against Adam Warren could very well be the start.
Andre Ethier ($3,700) – Andre Ethier is your prototypical platoon bat. Ethier is off to a great start this season with a .329/.423/.598 slash. He does most of his damage against righties and Jarred Cosart is a good matchup for him. Cosart will provide the power with his mid-90s fastball and Ethier should be able to do the rest.
Here are the top value starting pitchers for May 13:
Raisel Iglesias ($5,000) – Going out on a bit of a limb with this one. The Cuban import has a lot of upside and pitched better in his first start than his line would indicate. His fastball mix with a slider can be effective against the Braves, who are below average as a team against both offerings this season. The Reds are a very solid defensive team and the Braves have not been very consistent offensively since their hot start to the season.
Brett Oberholtzer ($5,400) – Taking a major gamble on this one as well. Oberholtzer will probably be held to a pitch count, but he doesn’t hurt himself with walks and has a very effective changeup against left-handed batters. The Giants offense is very hit or miss and the unfamiliar lefty tends to be a profitable betting angle. The Giants have not seen much of Oberholtzer and the Astros should give him plenty of run support.
Jimmy Nelson ($6,100) – Saving the best for last. Nelson has a lot of upside in this awful Brewers rotation. He’s one of the few guys with a lot of strikeout potential and his strand rate should see some positive regression soon. The White Sox lineup is full of right-handed hitters with swing-and-miss tendencies, which plays right into Nelson’s strengths as a pitcher. He has averaged just shy of a strikeout per inning and the righty-heavy Brewers lineup should give him some run support.