Ideal conditions for daily fantasy baseball leagues are presents on Tuesday. All 30 teams are in action and all 15 games are at night. There won’t be any secrets and players will have all day to go over the matchups and make those last-minute decisions to win big. The starting pitching market is very interesting as only five of the 30 pitchers in action are priced at $9,000 or more. That means that there should a lot of good value somewhere on the board. It also means that hitting may be a little bit pricier today. Let us help you make smart decisions in your quest to be the next big winner.
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The salaries listed are from DraftKings.
Here are the top teams to stack for May 19:
Cincinnati – Is there an “ace” whose stock has dropped more than Yordano Ventura? Ventura is now down to $6,600 for today’s start against the Reds and that represents a pretty significant fall from grace. Ventura is getting to the point where positive regression is coming, so the fade train won’t be leaving the station too much longer, but we may get one more bad start out of him. Ventura has a 5.36 ERA with a 4.09 xFIP and a 4.13 SIERA. His walk rate is similar to last season’s, but a big strikeout rate drop and an uptick in home runs has really hurt the right-hander. The Reds are hardly a great offensive team, but they are tied for third with 48 home runs and home runs are essential to cashing. At the very least, take some power guys like Joey Votto, Todd Frazier, and possibly Jay Bruce.
Baltimore – Like the Reds, there’s some good power upside on Tuesday night for the Orioles. Taijuan Walker has given up six home runs in 33.2 innings of work and most of his starts have come in good parks to pitch in. Walker has pitched at Safeco Field, his home park, three times, once in Oakland, once at Dodgers Stadium, once in Houston, and once in Texas. Three of the six home runs allowed came in Houston and the Orioles have a somewhat similar lineup with quite a few free-swingers with power. The Mariners are a bad defensive team and Walker has given up a lot of hard contact this season.
Miami – The Marlins could be a good stack for Tuesday night. Outside of Giancarlo Stanton, most of their players are reasonably priced and they take on Jeremy Hellickson, who is terrible. Hellickson has a 5.92 ERA with a 4.65 FIP, a 4.55 xFIP, and a 4.60 SIERA. Some positive regression is likely coming because of the high BABIP, but Hellickson is not a very good pitcher. The Diamondbacks have been a solid defensive team overall, so a high BABIP on a good defensive team generally means hard contact against.
Here are the top value hitters for May 19:
Kolten Wong ($3,800) – Normally you look at a left-handed hitter and expect to see platoon splits. Kolten Wong does not have sharp ones. Wong takes on southpaw Jon Niese on Tuesday and could be a very good option at second base. Wong has 123 career plate appearances against lefties with a very respectable .297/.350/.405 slash. Considering Wong is the 15th-most expensive second baseman, there’s great value on him as a cheap middle infield option.
Pedro Alvarez ($3,400) – I keep coming back to this one at first base because of the power potential. Alvarez has only hit one home run over his last 10 games, but he’s still drawing walks. Alvarez is a platoon bat at this stage of his career, but he has a .238/.333/.455 slash against right-handers this season, which is 13 percent above league average. Ricky Nolasco has not allowed a home run over 18.1 innings this season, but he’s allowed a lot of hard contact with a .393 BABIP against and has a 4.85 xFIP. Alvarez is 44th on the price list, below far worse hitters at 1B.
Joc Pederson ($3,800) – It was inevitable that Joc Pederson would cool off. The nice thing about his recent skid is that he’s still drawing walks. That’s a sign that things will turn around quickly. When hitters are still being selective and don’t let frustration take over, balls in play tend to even out. Pederson has a favorable matchup against Tim Hudson on Tuesday night and this could definitely be a spot where Pederson gets it going.
Here are the top value pitchers for May 19:
Aaron Sanchez ($5,500) – We’re all gamblers at heart, right? Aaron Sanchez is definitely a gamble. But, there’s some method to the madness. The Angels offense has been terrible this season and their 6.5 percent walk rate is tied for 25th. Sanchez’s biggest problem is that he doesn’t throw enough strikes, but the Angels thrive on making contact and Sanchez has a .250 BABIP against. A high ground ball split has been very helpful. If there’s a good matchup for a guy like Sanchez, it’s probably this one.
Gio Gonzalez ($9,000) – If you’re looking for a pitcher in line for positive regression, Gio Gonzalez is that guy. His 4.25 ERA is accompanied by a 2.75 FIP, a 3.20 xFIP, and a 3.35 SIERA. An ugly .387 BABIP against is the culprit right now. Gonzalez has increased the usage of his changeup this season and has induced more balls on the ground. With more fastballs classified as two-seamers, it’s impressive that Gio hasn’t sacrificed a lot of strikeouts for weak ground ball contact. He’s a great streaming option against a mediocre Yankees lineup on Tuesday.
Jason Hammel ($8,700) – Hammel seems expensive here, doesn’t he? There’s probably a reason for that. Righties have a .211/.248/.358 slash with a 28/4 K/BB ratio against him. In 2014, Hammel held righties to a .231/.291/.380 slash. The Padres have a very right-handed heavy lineup and I have said countless times that they will struggle against better right-handed pitchers. Hammel may not be in that category overall, but he does a good job against righties and is worth a look on Tuesday.