Eight games are on the Major League Baseball schedule today with a doubleheader in Baltimore to make up the games that were postponed due to the riots last month. It’s much too difficult to try and figure out how teams will do during doubleheaders, so those two games are going to be eliminated from contention for today’s daily fantasy baseball tips and tricks article. Six games are on tap this evening, beginning at 8 p.m. ET, which means that contrarian may be the way to go because a lot of lineups are going to have the same components.
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The salaries listed are from DraftKings.
Here are the top teams to stack for May 28:
Atlanta – Let’s start contrarian right away. The Braves and Giants meet at AT&T Park. Heston has been blasted in his last two starts to kick off the regression that was suggested by his advanced metrics. He entered his May 17 start with a 2.91 ERA. Over his last two starts, Heston has allowed 11 runs on 15 hits and three home runs in 7.2 innings of work. The light-hitting Braves won’t be a popular stack, but lefties are posting a .340/.390/.581 slash against Heston and the best Braves hitters are lefties.
Boston – The Red Sox offense has been terrible all season long, but Nick Martinez’s regression is coming soon, so why not expect it to come today? Martinez has completely changed as a pitcher by going with more of a two-seam/change arsenal than the fly ball-heavy four-seamer he predominantly threw last season. His 1.96 ERA is accompanied by a 3.99 FIP and a 4.88 xFIP, so regression is coming. His high strand rate and high contact rate do not mesh and the Red Sox still have talent in that lineup.
Pittsburgh – Stacking options are really slim on Thursday night. Pittsburgh becomes a de facto choice because I love their lineup and Ian Kennedy has struggled. Admittedly, Kennedy is due for positive regression, but hopefully it doesn’t start on Thursday. Kennedy’s command has been terrible and he has allowed a lot of hard contact and nine home runs in 35.1 innings of work. An early-season hip injury kept him from getting into a rhythm and that seems to still be a problem.
Here are the top value hitters for May 28:
Billy Butler ($3,400) – Country Breakfast goes up against CC Sabathia on Thursday night as one of the cheaper first base options on the market. Sabathia has a long history of struggling in Oakland in front of friends and family. The first basemen list is filled with injuries among the cheaper options, but Butler has a good chance to do some damage as one of the most cost-efficient first basemen.
Nori Aoki ($3,700) – Remember when the Nori Aoki bandwagon left the station back in April? Aoki has continued to hit and his presence at the top of the lineup has fueled the Giants offense all season long. Aoki is averaging eight points per day and he is hot once again with a .483/.520/.692 slash over the last 10 games. This will slow down for Aoki, because he’s not that good of a hitter, but enjoy it while it lasts.
Mike Aviles ($3,300) – Terry Francona is an unabashed Mike Aviles supporter. Aviles will continue to play against left-handed pitchers and he has actually justified Francona’s love affair this season. Against southpaw James Paxton, you can bet that Aviles will be in there somewhere, likely at shortstop in place of Jose Ramirez. Aviles has hit .303 with an .846 OPS this season and .277/.375/.447 slash against lefties.
Here are the top value starting pitchers for May 28:
Buck Farmer ($4,300) – Farmer is an intriguing prospect in the Tigers organization. He was fast-tracked through the minors and has shown a good ability for missing bats at every level. In nine starts this season, Farmer has shown impeccable command with one home run allowed to 213 batters. He has averaged nearly a strikeout per inning and relies on a three-pitch mix with a live fastball and a good changeup to keep hitters off-balance. The Angels offense has struggled all season and Farmer could be in the big leagues to stay with some of Detroit’s issues.
Kendall Graveman ($4,700) – This is about as good of a matchup as it can get for Kendall Graveman. Graveman struggled early, but figured it out in Triple-A and his sinker/cutter style should play up against a Yankees lineup that has been reliant on power this season. Oakland’s home park should also play up Graveman’s stuff and the fact that it suppresses home runs will hurt the Yankees, who are also flying cross-country for this game.
James Paxton ($7,700) – The betting total for the Mariners/Indians game is just 6.5. A lot of that has to do with Corey Kluber and how dominant he has been, but Paxton has been solid this season and Safeco Field is still a good park to pitch in. The Indians are around league average against lefties, so there’s no clear advantage for Paxton, but with such a low total, Paxton is definitely worth a look.