A lot of day games populate the Sunday MLB schedule as teams look ahead to a new series or a day off on Monday. The lone night game should be a good one on ESPN between Lance Lynn and Zack Greinke. Over two months into the season, many statistics have reached or will soon reach stabilization points, though there is still a lot of day-to-day variance in the daily fantasy sports market as it can be hard to pinpoint the players and teams due to break out. Let’s see who might have a big day on June 7.
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The salaries listed are from DraftKings.
Here are the top teams to stack for June 7:
Milwaukee – Those looking for Kyle Gibson regression were validated on Friday night when the Brewers put up some numbers against the pitch-to-contact righty. The Brewers draw a similar matchup on Sunday against Mike Pelfrey. Pelfrey has a 2.59 ERA, but a 4.14 FIP, and a 4.61 xFIP on the season. His strand rate is entirely too high for a contact pitcher at 80.5 percent and his HR/FB shows some signs of negative regression, as the xFIP suggests. He has made some arsenal changes to throw more splitters this season, which has kept the ball down, but those may start to flatten out. If they do, Milwaukee certainly has power.
Colorado – You’ll pay a premium for this stack because Jose Urena is the cheapest SP option out there, but it may be smart to just go with the obvious team. The Rockies get a pitcher making his third career start and first start at Coors Field. There’s a definite learning curve to figuring out how to command one’s stuff in the light air and Urena, with six Triple-A starts and 13.2 MLB innings isn’t going to have that. Home runs and command have already been a problem and they project to be one again.
Pittsburgh – This one is a little bit of a shot in the dark against a very good lefty like Alex Wood, but there are some signs of regression present. Wood’s strikeout rate has dropped in a big way this season and a .342 BABIP against has not been as much of a detriment as it could be. His 3.19 ERA is accompanied by a 3.92 xFIP. On a warm day in Atlanta, the ball may carry a little bit better and Pittsburgh has some guys with some pop. Wood has not missed many bats this season, with a swinging strike rate below six percent, so the Pirates are a decent gamble.
Here are the top value hitters for June 7:
Logan Forsythe ($3,400) – Forsythe has had a fine season to date and there are some good signs against southpaws that DFS players should be monitoring. He has a .561 SLG against LHP, but is only batting .227. The reason is because of a .213 BABIP. He has great strikeout-to-walk rates against lefties and has flashed extremely good power. He has a .276/.364/.464 slash overall on the season and has been a very underrated hitter.
Joey Gallo ($3,500) – The all-or-nothing Gallo is a great streaming option against Jeremy Guthrie on Sunday. Guthrie likes to work up in the zone and Gallo’s bat speed is one of his top assets. Guthrie doesn’t whiff many hitters, which should help Gallo put balls in play and do so with authority. Arlington is a good hitter’s environment as it warms up and Gallo has a great chance to flash that 8-grade power on Sunday.
Joc Pederson ($4,100) – Young Joc has continued his power tear into June and draws a good matchup against Lance Lynn, whose problems against left-handed batters are back. Lefties are slugging .422 against Lynn and have 11 extra-base hits in 123 plate appearances. Pederson has hit 14 of his 17 home runs in just 184 plate appearances against righties.
Here are the top value starting pitchers for June 7:
Kyle Hendricks ($7,100) – Hendricks has increased his strikeout rate from last season and has a lot of peripherals that are right in the proper range. One difference is that his 3.99 ERA is accompanied by a 3.46 FIP, 3.66 xFIP, and 3.55 SIERA, so some better fortunes are headed his way. His low line drive rate and high ground ball rate are attractive qualities and the Nationals offense has struggled unless Bryce Harper has hit more than one home run in a game.
Collin McHugh ($7,500) – McHugh struggled out of the gate in his last start, but made some good adjustments and kept his team in the game. He’ll try to lower his 4.33 ERA on Sunday against Toronto. Streaming against Toronto is a worry, but McHugh’s biggest problem has been sequencing, not stuff. He has a 3.71 FIP, a 3.61 xFIP, and a 3.56 SIERA. The strikeout rate should climb a little bit soon because his swinging strike rate and chase rate are both higher than last season. His first-pitch strike percentage is also higher. Good things are coming for McHugh.
Josh Collmenter ($5,400) – This play doesn’t have a ton of upside, but there are some compelling reasons to take Collmenter in this start. The Mets return home to enjoy an off day on Monday, so they will be looking forward to getting on the plane for the cross-country flight back. Collmenter does have some slight signs of positive regression with a 4.39 FIP and 4.34 xFIP compared to a 5.03 ERA. The Mets don’t exactly have a great offense and Collmenter does eat innings.