The dog days of summer are starting to make an appearance as some reliable offensive teams have gone into slumps and some pitchers are starting to see regression in their numbers. The day-to-day variance of daily fantasy sports is still so tough to overcome, but the brain game of trying to put together the perfect lineup remains an addicting drug. Hopefully these tips for June 13 will help you do just that so you can be the next big winner.
Want to try out daily fantasy baseball? Try either DraftKings or FanDuel and you could be the next big winner. Test your baseball, soccer, football, basketball, hockey, MMA, golf, and NASCAR intelligence out against players from around the country and fill that need for competition.
The salaries listed are from DraftKings.
Here are the top teams to stack for GPPs on June 13:
Colorado – The Rockies are in a major offensive funk right now, but a matchup against Mat Latos may be just what they need to start swinging the bats. Latos is making his first start back after a stint on the disabled list and control has not been his forte this season. His strikeout rate climbed just before he went on the disabled list, but his 8.3 percent walk rate would be his highest Major League rate since 2009. His command is also failing him with a .358 BABIP against. His advanced metrics suggest improvement, but it may not come in this first start back.
Texas – Hopefully I’m on target by fading Mike Pelfrey in this one. Pelfrey is a guy that I have covered extensively on The Bettor’s Box and in various other forms of baseball content. He is due for massive regression with a 2.28 ERA, a 3.83 FIP, and a 4.36 xFIP. Some guys just defy the odds, but with this Twins defense, Pelfrey seems very unlikely to do that. He has the highest LOB% rate with men on base, even though he has the lowest K%. That won’t continue.
Milwaukee – The Brewers have done a number on the Nationals so far in this season and they should do the same on Saturday against Joe Ross. Ross is making his second career start in the Majors after jumping up from Double-A. Ross is essentially a one-pitch pitcher at this point with a good fastball and not much else. The Cubs had some trouble the first time through in his first start, but they scratched out three runs on six hits in five innings. The Nationals defense is terrible and Ross’s lack of secondaries should mean a lot of contact on Saturday.
Here are the top value hitters for June 13:
AJ Pollock ($4,300) – AJ Pollock was a huge loss for the Diamondbacks last season when he got hurt and he has averaged 9.3 points per game in DraftKings formats this season. Only Bryce Harper, Giancarlo Stanton, Mike Trout, and Nelson Cruz are higher among players with more than a handful of games played. Pollock has hit all season long and has been a huge piece for the Diamondbacks during their resurgence. He has swiped 14 bags and has hit eight home runs. He’s scoring points in all kinds of ways and that’s worth paying for.
Marcus Semien ($3,300) – Fortunately, fielding doesn’t count in daily fantasy contests, so that makes Marcus Semien a good streaming option at a low cost. Semien has a .283/.338/.350 slash against lefties this season. The power hasn’t been there are it has been against righties, but Semien has a good matchup against CJ Wilson, who is a bit erratic and has had some major command issues over the last couple of seasons.
Chris Carter ($4,300) – Chris Carter’s big problem is that he strikes out a ton. That shouldn’t be a concern against Mike Montgomery on Saturday. Montgomery has a bit of strikeout upside, but his unpolished secondary pitches shouldn’t be an issue for Carter, who has posted a 1.032 OPS over his last 10 games. Carter homered on Friday and has a good chance to do so again on Saturday.
Here are the top value starting pitchers for June 13:
Collin McHugh ($7,800) – I’m going to buy into Collin McHugh’s positive regression again here against the Mariners. McHugh has about the same number of swings and misses and has been working ahead in the count more often. Eventually, that will translate into better strikeout numbers. His BABIP against is a little bit inflated and Seattle isn’t a lineup to fear. Innings pitched and strikeouts are what matters and McHugh should be a good return on investment against a lineup that doesn’t work the count much.
Jimmy Nelson ($6,900) – The Nationals are in some trouble right now since Bryce Harper stopped carrying the offense. Key contributors are struggling and Jayson Werth is out. Jimmy Nelson has some clear upside. He has developed a knuckle-curve for this season that has been a nice new wrinkle to get swings and misses. Nelson has the 15th-best swinging strike rate and his name is among some of the game’s elite pitchers in that category.
Jeff Samardzija ($8,300) – Samardzija is getting overshadowed in this start against Chris Archer as the DFS market is focusing on the Rays right-hander. Samardzija was rocked in his last start, but his 4.93 ERA shows some positive regression with a 3.98 FIP and a 3.86 xFIP. He’s getting a lot of swings on pitches outside of the zone, which has to yield some positive results at some point. The Rays offense isn’t all that exciting and Samardzija is in a good bounce back spot.