It’s an early day for DFS on Sunday with 14 games starting in the afternoon. As always, a word of caution for contest players because a lot of guys do get days off on Sundays, especially those that may have a game on Monday or played a night game on Saturday. You’ll have to be quick with those decisions in the morning once the lineups get released. Five pitchers cost more than $10,000 on Sunday, so it could be a tough day for offense outside of the fact that a lot of games start early.
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The salaries listed are from DraftKings.
Here are the top teams to stack for GPPs on June 14:
New York Yankees – The Yankees face Mike Wright on Sunday and I’m not buying him in the slightest. Wright has a .239 BABIP against because four of the 21 hits he has allowed to 97 batters faced have left the ballpark. Home runs weren’t a huge problem in the minor leagues, but low strikeout rates suggest pretty pedestrian stuff and that’s the kind of thing that MLB hitters take advantage of. His 88.8 percent LOB% is going to come down and his 4.14 xFIP and 4.03 SIERA are better indicators of his talent level than the 2.96 ERA. After two good starts to open his MLB career, Wright has allowed eight runs on 14 hits and four home runs in his last 10 innings. Small sample sizes, but word gets around quick about a pitcher.
San Francisco – I hate to do this since I’ve been all aboard the Rubby de la Rosa train, but the Giants are hitting everything in sight over the last six weeks and de la Rosa just doesn’t have the command it takes to pitch against good lineups. I know what the advanced metrics say, but his inconsistency from pitch-to-pitch is too much to overlook in this start. The ball should carry a little better at AT&T Park during the day, which could bring his poor home run rate to the surface more than it normally would be in San Francisco.
Texas – Oh, Phil Hughes. You conned everybody into thinking that you had turned a corner last season and have suddenly lost your command. After a breakout 2014 with a historic walk rate and a dramatic drop in home run rate, Hughes is back to serving up more meatballs than an Italian grandmother. Hughes gave up 16 home runs in 209.2 innings pitched last season. He has allowed 13 in 76.2 innings this season. His strikeout rate has also dropped by more than seven percent and he’s a fly ball pitcher making a start in Texas. Woof.
Here are the top value hitters for June 14:
Carlos Correa ($4,100) – On a day when another premier shortstop prospect (Francisco Lindor) makes his debut, you should expect Carlos Correa to keep right on raking. The smooth-swinging righty has two bombs and a double in his first 20 at bats and draws a favorable matchup against Roenis Elias on Sunday. If Jose Altuve is out again on Sunday, Correa will probably bat second again, which will increase your chances of getting points from the young dynamo.
Martin Prado ($3,500) – I’m going back to the well with platoon All-Star Martin Prado. Prado entered Saturday with a .309/.345/.473 slash against southpaws and has a career mark of .295/.360/.462 slash against southpaws. Jorge de la Rosa has pitched better than some of his stats would indicate, but Prado has hit much better lefties in the past. Prado’s .366/.398/.580 slash against lefties last season came in his first season with Miami in a bad hitter’s park. This is a legit trend.
Joe Panik ($3,600) – It’s hard to believe that Panik’s salary has only increased by a few hundred dollars since the start of the season. He and Brandon Crawford have been excellent middle infield options all season for the surprising Giants offense. Panik has a .317/.380/.473 slash on the season and one-third of his hits against right-handed pitching have gone for extra bases. That’s highly valuable out of a non-traditional offensive position. These are three good value bats to use in your infield to pay for pitching or outfielders.
Here are the top value pitchers for June 14:
Dan Haren ($7,100) – Haren has averaged almost 6.1 innings per start this season because he is very efficient with his pitch count. Haren doesn’t walk many hitters and hasn’t throughout his entire career. Some of his mistakes get hit out of the ballpark, but Marlins Park is very friendly to pitchers and his batted ball data shows just how much he uses that to his advantage. There’s a little bit of strikeout upside there, with a few six and seven-strikeout games this season. Ultimately, the Rockies are struggling to score and Haren forces hitters to hit their way on base.
Lance McCullers ($7,800) – McCullers continues to be underpriced in daily fantasy formats. McCullers has a 24.4 percent K%-BB%, which is incredible for a pitcher that barely stopped in Double-A. The stuff is legit all the way around. The Mariners have not seen McCullers yet, but they’re not the type of lineup to run up his pitch count. Over his last two starts, McCullers has an 18/0 K/BB ratio. I’m not one for small sample sizes, but this suggests to me that he is getting more comfortable at the MLB level. His strikeout upside is worth this price alone, let alone the fact that he should pick up a win and pitch deep into the game.
AJ Burnett ($9,500) – AJ Burnett goes up against Cole Hamels in a game that should probably be low-scoring. The Phillies are not a good offensive team, as everybody knows. Burnett may be the safer bet of the two because the Pirates are more likely to provide him with some support and they are a much better defensive team. Burnett has regained his control after pitching through a sports hernia last season and has made it a point to pitch to his defense, along with racking up strikeouts against right-handed batters.