July will be a fantastic month in Major League Baseball. For one thing, handicappers and daily fantasy players will get a nice respite from the day-to-day grind for the All-Star Break. For another thing, the non-waiver trade deadline is coming up and teams will have some tough decisions to make. For now, however, it’s just another day of baseball with four day games and 11 night games, per the Daily Fantasy slate. We’ll focus on the night games as we look to win big on Wednesday July 1.
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The salaries listed are from DraftKings.
Here are the top teams to stack for July 1:
New York Yankees – This one defies a lot of conventional baseball wisdom. The Yankees are playing a 4:05 p.m. local start time to wrap up a seven-game road trip. They return home for a big AL East series against Tampa Bay on Friday after an off day on Thursday. This seems like the type of spot where a team would roll over. Joe Girardi is a pretty good manager and the Yankees have a good matchup against Matt Shoemaker. Shoemaker has lost some velocity this season and has shown poor command with 15 home runs allowed in 78.2 innings of work. If there’s one thing we know about the Yankees, it’s that they hit for power this season. Only the Rockies and Dodgers have posted a higher SLG against righties this season.
Chicago Cubs – Things are trending in the wrong direction for Bartolo Colon. Over his last nine starts, Colon has a 6.45 ERA with a .309/.338/.509 slash against. There are some good starts mixed in, but the aggressive Cubs hitters often seek out fastballs to hit and Colon will throw a steady diet of those. At 42, Colon’s command may simply be on the fritz. He has allowed 14 home runs over 92 innings and the Cubs have some power to exploit that statistic in this one.
Baltimore – Does Nick Martinez’s regression continue? It certainly could. He was bombed by the Blue Jays in his last start and the fact that the Orioles are an enormous betting odds favorite and that Martinez’s advanced metrics still show regression are reasons to take a stab with the Orioles. It won’t be cheap, but pitching is relatively cheap, so you can make that trade-off. With a 3.39 ERA and a 4.96 xFIP, the Nick Martinez Regression Tour may be coming to a city near you very soon.
Here are the top value hitters for July 1:
Giovanny Urshela ($2,200) – Gio Urshela is on a nice little run for the Indians. He homered on Tuesday night and has a hit in nine straight games. He hasn’t been stringing hits together, per se, since he has one hit per game in that span, but he’s looking a lot more comfortable at the plate. He was a bat-to-ball guy in the minors, so he’s going to put pitches in play. The Indians offense is showing some signs of life and Urshela could be in a position to benefit from that. Plus, at $2,200 against a guy with spotty command and control like Alex Colome, why not take a stab?
Ben Revere ($4,000) – The light-hitting outfielder has the chance to do some damage against Kyle Lohse on Wednesday. Lohse’s command has dropped off in a big way, which opens up some extra-base hit potential for Revere. At the very least, he should get on base a couple of times and could swipe a bag or two. The Phillies need to start doing something creative to generate offense and maybe interim manager Pete Mackanin will encourage more running.
Jimmy Paredes ($4,500) – Paredes is batting in a premier spot in the Orioles lineup and, as mentioned above, the Orioles are expected to have a nice day offensively against Nick Martinez. Paredes is tied for the third-most expensive second baseman, but it’s probably worthwhile to take a good, long look at him. Paredes is hitting .325/.355/.534 against righties on the season.
Here are the top value starting pitchers for July 1:
John Lackey ($9,300) – It is a terrible night to find pitching value with a lot of pitch-to-contact arms on the slate. Lackey is one of those, but he probably has the best matchup against the lowly Chicago White Sox. The White Sox offense ranks among the worst in the league in seemingly every statistical category. Lackey doesn’t have any great peripherals that stand out, but this is a play against the White Sox lineup.
Chris Heston ($6,500) – The Miami Marlins have never seen Chris Heston and when his two-seamer and curve are on, he can be unhittable. The New York Mets found that out the hard way when they faced him for the first time. He has strikeout-per-inning upside at times and the Marlins are not a good offensive team, especially without their best bat. At this price, 6 IP, 6 H, 3 ER with 6 K is plenty good enough.
Carlos Carrasco ($10,200) – On a night like tonight, it’s probably best to pay for at least one of the highest-priced arms. The first two Indians starters in this series have taken perfect games into the fifth inning, as the Rays offense has really struggled. Carrasco probably has the best stuff out of the Cody Anderson, Danny Salazar, Carrasco trio, so that’s encouraging. However, Anderson and Salazar each had only two strikeouts, so that could limit Carrasco’s value.