There are 11 games on tap for Monday night. Weather could be a factor tonight as rain is forecasted to threaten several games. Don’t let rain completely scare you off from certain players, since every attempt is made to play these games because nobody wants to play doubleheaders or lose off days. The best pitcher on the board takes on the best offense in the league, so it will be interesting to see how everybody plays it today.
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The salaries listed are from DraftKings.
Here are the top teams to stack for July 6:
Atlanta – How bad has Kyle Lohse been this season? Matt Wisler has a higher salary in his fourth career start. A lack of power has hurt Atlanta’s overall numbers against righties, but they don’t get to face a guy like Lohse every time out. Even though Lohse has reverse platoon splits this season, everybody has been putting up power numbers against him. I’m not a big believer in home/road splits in small samples, but there’s something to be said about Lohse’s 8.16 ERA with a .306/.356/.557 slash line against at Miller Park.
Baltimore – Phil Hughes has proven that last season was a flash in the pan. The K/BB metrics are there, but the command is terrible. The Orioles are comfortably in the top 10 in SLG against righties and that’s not good for Hughes, who has allowed 19 home runs in just 105.1 innings of work. He is striking out 2.5 fewer batters per nine innings than he did last season and he’s fortunate to only have a 4.27 ERA because of his 77.2 percent strand rate.
Kansas City – Command has plagued Alex Colome all season long. The Royals offense is really scuffling right now, but so is Colome. His 4.70/4.59/4.44 pitcher slash doesn’t inspire a whole lot of confidence and lefties have posted a .273/.341/.428 slash with a 24/16 K/BB ratio on the season. The Rays are a pretty good defensive team in the outfield, but Colome has also allowed nine home runs in 69 innings and Kauffman Stadium has really deep alleys.
Here are the top value hitters for July 6:
Yan Gomes ($3,300) – Gomes may have underwhelming numbers on the season, but there are a lot of really encouraging signs. As of July 5, Gomes had 11 batted balls with an exit velocity of 100 mph or more. Nine of those came in June, and seven in his last 12 games, per Jordan Bastian of MLB.com. Gomes is starting to hit the ball with more authority. You never want to pay a premium for catcher production and you don’t have to with Gomes, especially against a lefty.
Brandon Crawford ($3,600) – For the second straight season, Brandon Crawford is showcasing reverse platoon splits. The Giants shortstop has a .333/.394/.583 slash against southpaws on the season. This is on the heels of a .320/.395/.484 slash in 2014. Crawford has shown surprising power this season and is certainly worth a look with Monday’s weak shortstop market.
Andre Ethier ($3,500) – Ethier has struggled recently, but it’s hard to argue with his performance against right-handed pitching throughout his career. Lefties are batting .360/.424/.730 against Sean O’Sullivan on the season. In all honesty, a Dodgers stack may be worthwhile as well, but certainly a stream of Ethier. He’s coming at a low cost here due to the struggles. All 10 of his home runs have come against righties and his .285 BABIP against RHP may be on the rise soon.
Here are the top value starting pitchers for July 6:
Jonathon Niese ($7,200) – I’m a big believer in the Circadian Rhythm as a handicapping angle. In this instance, the San Francisco Giants, who have lost six straight, played the ESPN Sunday Nighter at Washington last night. They had a cross-country flight home and now take on the New York Mets, who were sightseeing in San Francisco by 7 p.m. local time. This should be a great spot for Niese to take on a tired team in a good park for him to pitch in.
Mark Buehrle ($6,800) – Mark Buehrle takes on his former team, the Chicago White Sox, who boast the league’s worst offense against left-handed pitching. How bad are the White Sox against LHP? They have a .573 OPS, the lowest in the league by 46 points. They have a .255 wOBA, the worst by 22 points. Their 55 wRC+ means that their performance is 45 percent below league average. Buehrle may not rack up strikeouts, but it’d be surprising to see him pick up less than 15 points in the DK format.
Carlos Carrasco ($10,200) – Sometimes you have to pay up and that’s the case with Carlos Carrasco. Carrasco has struck out nearly 28 percent of opposing batters on the season and that’s a good stat to have going up against an Astros offense that strikes out a ton. The Indians could really rack up some punchouts in this series, with Carrasco setting the tone. He doesn’t walk many batters and keeps the ball in the park, so the dangerous Astros offense loses some of its punch with a guy like Carrasco on the mound.