Eleven of today’s 15 games will conclude under the lights and those are the games that will be the focus of today’s daily fantasy baseball tips and suggestions piece. Clayton Kershaw tops the board among starting pitchers for his matchup with the lowly Philadelphia Phillies, but buyer beware, as Max Scherzer struggled to his worst outing in quite a while on Tuesday with a $14,000 price tag. With some intriguing games and some good matchups on tap for July 8, let’s dive right in.
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The salaries listed are from DraftKings.
Here are the top teams to stack for July 8:
Boston – The Red Sox offense is trending in the right direction thanks to some BABIP regression. In April, the Red Sox posted a team BABIP of .272 and a 98 wRC+. In May, it fell to .266 with an 80 wRC+. In June, it ballooned to .315 with a 110 wRC+. In July, the Red Sox have a 122 wRC+. It’s a small sample this month, but this talented offense was going to get better and it has after a run of bad luck early in the season. Tom Koehler sports a 4.62 ERA away from Marlins Park and will be pitching against an extra hitter with this game in Boston.
Colorado – After stacking the wrong team in this game on Tuesday, we’ll hope that Colorado is the right side on Wednesday. Matt Shoemaker’s season-long command problems have the potential to be a serious problem at Coors Field. He has already allowed 16 home runs in 84.1 innings this season and a drop in velocity hasn’t helped. There is some regression in his HR/FB% rate per his xFIP, but Coors Field isn’t the type of park where HR/FB% regresses.
Toronto – Obvious stack is obvious, right? The Blue Jays will take their elite offense against left-handed pitching to the plate against John Danks. Danks is nowhere near the caliber of either Chris Sale or Jose Quintana. Even though Danks has pitched better of late, his changeup, which is his go-to pitch, has seriously regressed this season. His changeup is over nine runs below average and none of his pitches rate as above average. The Blue Jays have a robust .365 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. After two days of struggling against lefties, they seem ready to break out.
Here are the top value hitters for July 8:
Preston Tucker ($3,300) – After going through some momentary struggles, Preston Tucker is back to hitting for the Houston Astros. Tucker has a .278/.350/.528 slash against right-handers on the season and has rebounded from a tough month of June. Tucker had a .240 BABIP in the month of June, but things have turned around quickly for him and the Astros have gotten some steam in the betting market against Trevor Bauer on Wednesday.
David Murphy ($3,000) – As you know, platoon bats are very valuable in DFS formats. Murphy doesn’t rate particularly well in DraftKings because he hits a lot of singles, but he’s hitting in a premier spot in the Indians batting order and the Wahoos should get something going offensively against Dan Straily. Murphy’s .329/.367/.484 slash against righties is great production at this type of price.
Todd Frazier ($4,300) – The Toddfather has hit lefties and righties this season, so there really aren’t any platoon splits to mention. What we can mention is the way that Frazier has batted against lefties. He has a .274/.315/.667 slash with nine home runs in just 84 plate appearances. For his career, Frazier is a .267/.329/.506 hitter against southpaws. Gio Gonzalez is on the mound for the Nationals.
Here are the top value starting pitchers for July 8:
Adam Morgan ($5,500) – In Adam Morgan’s third career start, he gets to go against Clayton Kershaw. The Dodgers are in the middle of the pack against lefties this season with a .304 wOBA and 96 wRC+, which is a stark contrast to the way that they batter right-handed pitching. It’s coincidental, but the Dodgers don’t give Kershaw a whole lot of run support. Morgan is an unfamiliar lefty with a fly ball split and some deception. Those things can play up at Dodger Stadium.
Rick Porcello ($5,800) – It seems like Rick Porcello’s positive regression should come any time now. The Red Sox are a decent defensive team and Porcello’s numbers are so out of whack that they are unsustainable. Perhaps it doesn’t happen on Wednesday, but at this price, I’m willing to take the chance. The Marlins rank 27th in wOBA against right-handed pitching on the season, despite a .297 BABIP. This is a bad offensive team and, as mentioned above, I expect Porcello to get some support.
Drew Hutchison ($7,200) – The mystery that is Drew Hutchison has about as good of a situation as possible on Wednesday. His offense destroys left-handed pitching and they face a below average lefty. Hutch takes on a White Sox offense that is terrible against everybody, including a .297 wOBA against righties on the season. The White Sox don’t hit for any power, which should mitigate Hutchison’s command troubles and Chicago’s 85 wRC+ is 15 percent below league average.