With the exception of the 4:05 p.m. ET start time for the Windy City rivalry at Wrigley, night games are on the menu for Friday night. All 30 teams are in action with just three days left until the All-Star Break. As mentioned on Thursday’s recording of The Bettor’s Box, approach this weekend with caution as some players and teams will have one foot on the plane for their midseason vacation or break with their families. That shouldn’t be an issue on Friday, and may only slightly come into play on Saturday, but it should be evident on Sunday. In any event, there are plenty of good streaming options for Friday, so let’s jump in.
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The salaries listed are from DraftKings.
Here are the top teams to stack for July 10:
Los Angeles Dodgers – Command has not been a hallmark of the 2015 season for Jimmy Nelson. Nelson was supposed to take some strides forward in his first full season in the Majors, but he has found that it is pretty difficult to be successful at this level. With a 4.50 ERA and a 4.37 FIP, Nelson really has nobody to blame but himself. An increase in walks and bombs has kept him from being effective this season. Lefties have done quite a bit of damage with a .300/.381/.513 slash. The Dodgers still have the highest wOBA (.340) and the highest BB% (9.5) in the league against righties.
Minnesota – Justin Verlander is not fixed. After a long stay on the DL, Verlander has allowed 18 runs in 22.2 innings of work. The swing-and-miss stuff is non-existent and the command has dropped off in a big way. Verlander has allowed six home runs and has a 6.75/7.05/5.75 pitcher slash in his starts this season. The Twins aren’t thought of as a great offensive team, but they definitely have some pieces worth using against Verlander with guys like Dozier, Sano, Mauer, Hunter, and Plouffe.
Texas – The Texas Rangers haven’t done much offensively lately and they’ve gone into a tailspin. That makes them an interesting stack for Friday night. With Ian Kennedy on the mound, there’s potential for Texas to snap out of it. Kennedy has had all sorts of command problems this season with 18 home runs allowed in 80 innings. As a frame of reference, he gave up 16 home runs in 201 innings last season. A fly ball pitcher in Arlington is always a worry and Kennedy’s 4.84 ERA and 5.20 FIP don’t match up well with going up against an American League team in this park.
Here are the top value hitters for July 10:
Danny Valencia ($3,000) – Time to go back to the well again with this one. Valencia really struggled this week for the Blue Jays as they had a hard time with the lefties that they faced. They’ll get another one on Friday night when they face Danny Duffy. Valencia’s performance against lefties has tailed off a bit, as he is now at .303/.343/.424 for the season, but his career .325/.365/.493 shows sustained production against lefties and that’s something to gamble on at this low price.
Francisco Lindor ($3,100) – The fielding phenom is getting BABIP’d in a bad way right about now. He homered on a line drive on Thursday night, one of the 20 line drives he has hit since getting called up out of 70 balls in play. Despite the solid contact, Lindor is batting just .220 with a .254 BABIP. His production will start coming around as those line drives start to find some holes. The Indians offense is showing some minor signs of life and Lindor continues to bat in a premier spot in the order.
Jarrod Dyson ($3,500) – Jarrod Dyson should get the bulk of the playing time in Alex Gordon’s absence as the Royals look to hang on without their top offensive threat. Dyson will hit in an unfavorable spot in the batting order for DFS purposes, but the way that DFS values stolen bases will make him an asset. Dyson isn’t a huge extra-base hit threat, though his speed pushes doubles into triples. He can get you some quick points with bags because Ned Yost may want to create more havoc on the bases without his top BB guy in the lineup.
Here are the top value starting pitchers for July 10:
Hector Santiago ($7,700) – There won’t be many spots where you feel comfortable backing Hector Santiago given the regression in his stat profile, but this is one of those starts. The Seattle Mariners have struggled most of the season offensively and rank 19th in wOBA against lefties, with the worst walk rate in baseball. Really, since Nelson Cruz’s hot April, the Mariners haven’t done much against lefties. Santiago has been working deep into games and is averaging about a strikeout per inning. You can’t ask for much more at this price.
Danny Salazar ($8,900) – This is going to be an uncomfortable matchup for the Oakland hitters. Even though the A’s aren’t walking as much as usual this season, guys that throw a lot of strikes give them fits and that’s what Danny Salazar does. Salazar has some occasional command issues and will allow home runs every now and then, but he has a 54/10 K/BB ratio against lefties so far this season. The A’s use a lot of platoon advantages, but they rate in the middle of the pack in most offensive categories and will strike out with some of the deeper counts that they work.
Wandy Rodriguez ($5,400) – I hate myself for this, but there’s value on Wandy, especially if you take one of the top aces on Friday night. With a price tag like this, you’re basically hoping to get 12-15 points out of Wandy and that seems doable against the Padres offense. The Padres have an 84 wRC+ on the road this season with a .293 wOBA. That’s among the worst marks in the league and this is a team dying for the All-Star Break to get here. Plus, things are uncomfortable in the clubhouse with all of the trade rumors. It’s a perfect storm of concerns about the Padres and Wandy is adequate enough to take advantage.