The last Saturday before the All-Star Break looks like a good day for hitting with only a few top pitchers in action. The Toronto Blue Jays and Kansas City Royals kick the day off at 2:10 p.m. ET, with every other game at 4:05 p.m. ET or later. Daily fantasy baseball contests are separated early and late today, so we’ll select teams and players from both parts of the day in order to make your Saturday nice and profitable.
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The salaries listed are from DraftKings.
Here are the top teams to stack for July 11:
Detroit – The Phil Hughes of 2014 is not the same Phil Hughes in 2015. The Twins right-hander has a 4.19 ERA with a 4.64 FIP and a 4.15 xFIP on the season. After being worth 5.7 fWAR, Hughes will be fortunate to crack one win above replacement player this season. The strikeout rate has declined in a big way and the home run is the highest of his career. Hughes has given up 21 bombs in 111.2 innings. Last season, he gave up 16 in 209.2 innings. The Tigers are limping into the ASB, but they are coming off of a crushing defeat last night and will try to put it behind them in a hurry.
Boston – I like Ivan Nova moving forward this season. I don’t like this start against the Boston Red Sox. After some bad batted ball luck throughout April and May, the Red Sox offense has come around in a big way. Over the last 30 days, your top MLB offenses by wOBA are the Detroit Tigers, Baltimore Orioles, and Boston Red Sox (.338). Nova is making his fourth start back from Tommy John surgery and neither the command nor the control is there for him right now. The Red Sox are moving up the charts offensively in a hurry.
Los Angeles Angels – Hisashi Iwakuma gave up four home runs in his first start back off of a lengthy DL stint against the Detroit Tigers last time out. The Angels have found their stride offensively, ranking seventh in wOBA over the last 30 days, and Kuma is a guy that needs good command to succeed. Not only that, but the Mariners bullpen has had all sorts of issues and the Mariners aren’t going to push Iwakuma that hard in his return. He only made three rehab starts, lasting 13.1 innings.
Here are the top value hitters for July 11:
Ian Kinsler ($3,900) – After struggling for a little while, Ian Kinsler seems to have found his stroke again. He pounded out a couple of hits on Friday night after homering on Thursday night. There is a pretty big drop-off in salary at 2B between Kinsler and Dee Gordon ($4,500). With an option like this, there’s no reason to pay a premium for production at second base. Kinsler is among the top options for Saturday.
Delino DeShields ($3,400) – The speedster has been back for a few games after missing some time with a hamstring injury. He puts the ball in play and has been successful on 14 of his 16 stolen base attempts this season. The spotty command of James Shields may allow DeShields to pick up a couple of extra-base hits in this one. There’s not a whole lot of power upside, but the Padres have a horrible defense and DeShields will make contact and force them to make plays. Opposing batters have already taken 10 bases against Shields in 15 tries this season.
Carlos Santana ($3,800) – Fans in Cleveland are ready to run Santana out of town because of his low batting average, but the AL’s most patient hitter is starting to get hot at the right time for the surging Indians. Santana reached base three times on Friday for the second straight game. The drop in power production has been the most frustrating part, but Santana looks a lot more free and easy at the plate and in the field right now and confidence is growing. He may snap out of his homer drought on Saturday.
Here are the top value pitchers for July 11:
Patrick Corbin ($6,500) – This is Corbin’s second start in his return from Tommy John surgery. He showed some minor command problems with some loud contact in his first start, but he takes on a Mets offense on Saturday that ranks 23rd in wOBA against lefties with a 23.6 percent K%. Corbin isn’t a big strikeout guy by any means, but he is a guy with good control and some good secondary stuff. On a day without a lot of pitching value, you either have to pay for aces or hope the low-salaried guys pitch well.
CJ Wilson ($7,400) – The Mariners are a few ticks below average against left-handers this season and CJ Wilson has been throwing the ball rather well on the year. He hasn’t sacrificed last year’s strikeout rate to issue fewer walks and he has done a better job of inducing weak contact. With a 3.82/3.81/3.86 pitcher slash, nothing stands out that would suggest regression. Wilson is what he is and that should be good enough on Saturday with the Angels offense having a great shot to do damage against Iwakuma.
Ryan Vogelsong ($6,600) – Ryan Vogelsong is one of those guys that surprise you every now and then with a gem. Saturday looks like a good day for that to happen. After a short outing thanks to home plate umpire Phil Cuzzi’s floating strike zone last time out, Vogelsong draws a Phillies team that cannot wait for the All-Star Break. The Phils have the worst offense in baseball against righties with a .282 wOBA and a 76 wRC+. That means they are 24 percent below league average against righties. Vogelsong isn’t great, but this is a good matchup.