After taking a week off with the All-Star Break, we’re back to providing excellent daily fantasy sports coverage here at BangTheBook. Monday’s card features 11 games, including a doubleheader between the Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. It’s a bit surprising to see so many teams with Monday off after the All-Star Break, but a smaller pool of players for Monday night may make things a little bit easier. Right now, it’s probably a good idea to avoid players on the trade market, as the uncertainty can have a major effect on their performance.
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The salaries listed are from DraftKings.
Here are the top teams to stack for July 20:
Atlanta – The Braves are still without Freddie Freeman, whose rehab isn’t progressing as well as the team thought it would, but that makes them a very cheap stacking option on Monday night against Brandon Beachy. Beachy is making just his second start in two years after his second major operation. Beachy had control and command problems in his first outing against the Brewers and draws a Braves lineup that will have a good platoon advantage in this one. The Braves aren’t much of an offense, but this is a tough spot for Beachy against his former team with a lot to prove.
Colorado – You’ll pay the Coors Field surcharge to stack the Rockies in this one, but it may be worth it against Nick Martinez. Martinez returns from a stint at Triple-A Round Rock to make this start for the Rangers. Martinez was sent down with a 3.43 ERA, which seems like a stunning development, until you notice his 4.86 xFIP and 4.76 SIERA. The Rockies have the highest wOBA in the league against righties, albeit Coors-inflated, so this is a horrible matchup for a guy like Martinez. He’s already due regression and will be pitching in suboptimal conditions.
Chicago Cubs – In general, I believe in Michael Lorenzen. Right now, it’s a tough sell. The 23-year-old righty has a 3.53 ERA during his first taste of big league baseball, but it comes with a 5.69 FIP and a 4.83 xFIP in those 71.1 innings of work. Lorenzen has poor K/BB rates and has been very fortunate to strand 85.5 percent of his runners. Command has been a problem with 12 home runs allowed in his 14 appearances, 12 of them starts. The Cubs are a boom or bust offense for the most part, but they have a good shot to boom in this one.
Here are the top value hitters for July 20:
Buster Posey ($4,000) – We’re living in a world where the best offensive catcher in the game is barely the most expensive catcher in DFS on Monday. Posey is raking over his last 10 games with a .402/.432/.477 slash and has a .317/.385/.495 slash for the season. The Giants have turned it up of late now that everybody is healthy again and they draw Ian Kennedy on Monday. Kennedy is probably making his last start or second-to-last start for the Padres, so the uncertainty will be eating away at him. His command has been poor this season anyway, so Posey, if not a full Giants stack, is a must on Monday.
Victor Martinez ($3,900) – I’ve been waiting for a good opportunity to do this and it happens on Monday night. The Tigers are under .500 for the first time this season, so there will be a little bit of desperation on Monday taking on JA Happ. V-Mart has had a rough season, but most of the problems stemmed from his inability to hit right-handed pitching. From the right side of the box, Martinez has a robust .447/.500/.617 slash in 54 PA against lefties. A knee injury was preventing Martinez from driving the ball against righties. It hasn’t had as much of an impact against lefties.
Kyle Schwarber ($3,400) – After an impressive debut during interleague play last month, Kyle Schwarber is back with the Cubs thanks to Miguel Montero’s injury. Schwarber destroyed both levels of the minors that he played at and has hit at every level since getting drafted out of Indiana in 2014. Schwarber has C/OF eligibility, so he’ll be a tremendous value at either position with a favorable matchup against Michael Lorenzen. At this price, his power potential is a must-stream in all formats.
Here are the top value starting pitchers for July 20:
Andrew Heaney ($8,400) – In four starts with the Angels, Andrew Heaney has been excellent. He has a 1.32 ERA with a 2.77 FIP and a 3.19 xFIP. He is just shy of a strikeout per inning, but, more importantly, this is an excellent situational play on the southpaw. He will start Game 2 of a doubleheader at Angel Stadium today. He’s going up against mediocre knuckleballer Steven Wright and the Red Sox have to fly out to Houston after the game. They may take a lot of early swings in the nightcap.
Rubby de la Rosa ($6,500) – I picked the right time to jump off the Rubby de la Rosa train, as he allowed 31 runs over 46.1 innings in June and the first part of July. Against the Miami Marlins, however, RDLR is worth a look. He has held righties to a .222/.267/.338 slash and has a 62/11 K/BB against them. The Marlins are third in wOBA against lefties and 26th in wOBA against righties. If there’s going to be a good time to use de la Rosa, it’s probably tonight.
Gio Gonzalez ($8,100) – There’s no pressure on Gio Gonzalez tonight, just that he opposes Matt Harvey. But, this start sets up rather well for Gonzalez. His occasional control problems should be mitigated against a Mets lineup that is tied for 28th in OBP against lefties. The Mets have a .293 wOBA against southpaws this season, which ranks 24th. In what has been a low-scoring season series so far, averaging just 4.57 runs per game, both Gio and Harvey could put together strong outings on Monday.