We’ll make it easy for you DFS players today and cut the card down to the 10 games that will take place tonight. This is the last day this week that baseball has the spotlight, so we’ll all be distracted by some sort of football from tomorrow through Monday. All 30 teams are in action today, but September getaway day games or day games after night games are things that you want to try to avoid with the expanded rosters. That’s why we’ll look for value in tonight’s slate only.
Remember that our column here at BangTheBook is centered exclusively on finding value. You know who the good players are. So does everybody else. It’s those under-the-radar guys that you pair with those high-salary players that allow you to come out on top.
DraftKings or FanDuel are the industry leaders in ease of use and safe, free transactions. Use these tips and the tips from our daily radio show to improve your abilities and fill out the winning lineup. Our MLB daily fantasy tips and suggestions article is different in that we’re not looking for the top scorers, but for the best values so that you can get the edge that you need in order to save money for the game’s best players.
The salaries listed are from DraftKings:
Here are the top teams to stack for September 14:
Chicago White Sox – Until Josh Tomlin proves that he can be effective, it’s best to fade the Indians right-hander. I’ve speculated that Tomlin is hurt and the performance stats certainly back up my theory. Tomlin has a 7.96 ERA with a 6.08 FIP and a 4.03 xFIP in his last 10 starts. He’s given up 72 hits and 16 home runs in 52 innings. He’s still not issuing walks, which is good because his numbers would be even worse. Tomlin is making his first start since August 30 and he’s only made one relief appearance in that span, so there’s a lot to worry about here.
Detroit – Tyler Duffey has given up four or more runs in all but two of his starts since the All-Star Break. The right-hander owns a 6.13 ERA with a 4.83 FIP and a 3.95 xFIP. When you see a gap like that, you know that the command has been the problem. It has. Duffey has allowed 149 hits in 120.1 innings and 23 of those hits have left the ballpark. He’s given up at least one home run in 16 of his 23 starts.
Texas – Joe Musgrove will make the eighth start of his MLB career and it will be his third against the Texas Rangers. It’s hard for young pitchers to capture everything that goes on during a game and a third start against a team in the span of 38 days means that adjustments will need to be made. Musgrove has a 4.78 ERA with a 4.66 FIP and a 4.13 xFIP in his 43.1 innings of work so far this season. He’s given up eight homers in seven starts.
Here are the top value hitters for September 14:
Brandon Guyer ($3,100) – Brandon Guyer provided Cleveland’s only offense on Tuesday night with a dinger off of southpaw Jose Quintana. Guyer draws another lefty here today with Carlos Rodon. In 138 plate appearances this season, Guyer has a .318/.457/.555 slash. He has a .435 wOBA and a 178 wRC+, which means he’s 78 percent above league average in that split. This isn’t a one-year anomaly, as Guyer posted an .844 OPS last season in his 226 PA versus lefties.
George Springer ($3,600) – George Springer is struggling a little bit, but we’ll gladly scoop up the value on the young slugger here today. With a platoon advantage, Springer is batting .269/.395/.538 this season with a .397 wOBA and a 154 wRC+. He’s hit nine of his 26 home runs in just 177 PA against lefties on the season. He also hits near the top of the Astros lineup, so he’ll get plenty of chances to rack up points.
Justin Bour ($3,600) – Justin Bour has developed into a very useful hitter for the Marlins. This season, Bour owns a .275/.363/.539 slash against right-handed pitching. He has a 135 wRC+ in that split and all 15 of his home runs in just 237 PA. Bour also tagged righties to the tune of a .270/.326/.519 slash last season with 23 home runs. At a price point like this and with a platoon advantage, you have to take Bour tonight.
Here are the top value pitchers for September 14:
Jake Thompson ($4,300) – Young pitchers sometimes develop some bad habits when they get to the big leagues. They try to aim the ball instead of pitch. They try to add more velocity and ruin their mechanics. For Jake Thompson, his last three starts represent what the Phillies think he is capable of as a big leaguer. Thompson has allowed five runs on 18 hits over his last 19.1 innings of work. The strikeouts aren’t there just yet, but the command is and that’s why he’s a good buy at this low price.
Junior Guerra ($6,300) – It’s never good to get hurt, but it may have been a small blessing in disguise for Junior Guerra. He should get to finish out the season now, which he probably wouldn’t have done had he been pitching right along. Guerra has already worked a career high in innings. He takes on Cincinnati here and he’s got a 2.96 ERA with a 3.74 FIP on the season. His 20.3 percent K% is plenty good enough and this is a good price against a bad lineup.
Hisashi Iwakuma ($7,100) – Hisashi Iwakuma takes the ball in Anaheim, which is generally a good place for pitchers. He’s also a good fit there, especially now, since his ground ball percentage has dropped so much this season. Kuma has posted a 3.25 ERA with a 3.82 FIP over his last 12 starts and he has really cut back on the long ball, which is why he’s been able to have so much success.