The final Saturday before the MLB Trade Deadline features 15 games with 4:05 p.m. ET or later start times. Trade candidates Cole Hamels, Johnny Cueto, Ian Kennedy, and Yovani Gallardo are all on the bump today. Pitching is cheap for the five games that are part of the “early” contests, with a couple of top arms in Jake Arrieta and Madison Bumgarner, Cole Hamels on the periphery, and then a lot of low-priced pitchers. Chris Sale, Carlos Carrasco, Matt Harvey, and Carlos Martinez are part of the night games. It will be an interesting day on the diamond, which makes it an interesting day in DFS.
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The salaries listed are from DraftKings.
Here are the top teams to stack for July 25:
San Francisco – An interesting point was posed by Jeff Zimmerman of Fangraphs and BaseballHeatMaps.com a couple days ago on Twitter. Chris Bassitt, through 27.2 big league innings this season, is vying to be the next Chris Young. Young has a lower walk rate, but Bassitt has a 2.93 ERA with a 4.04 FIP and a 5.43 xFIP. The key for Young’s success as a fly ball pitcher is inducing pop ups. So far, that has worked for Bassitt as well. I’m not sure that this is a sustainable trend, which is why the Giants are a decent stacking play on Saturday. The Giants have a good offense and Bassitt’s walk rate with eventually hurt him in the form of doubles and home runs.
New York Yankees – The Yankees stack backfired on Friday night as Phil Hughes and the bullpen managed to scatter 10 hits in a blowout win. We’ll get back on the horse on Saturday with the Yankees against fly ball left-hander Tom Milone. Some sequencing luck has kept Milone from having an ERA in the 4.50 range, as he has stranded over 80 percent of his runners. The number I’m focused on is 11 home runs allowed in 69.1 innings. The Yankees are seventh in slugging and eighth in wOBA against lefties. They have the sixth-worst BABIP against lefties this season, a number that should turn around a bit and Milone is a pitch-to-contact guy.
Houston – Danny Duffy could be in for a rough outing on Saturday. Duffy’s strikeout rate has dropped to 14.9 percent and his walk rate has increased to 9.2 percent. Among starters with 70 or more innings pitched, only six of the 122 have a worse K-BB% than Duffy’s 5.6 percent. The Astros are fifth in SLG and seventh in BB% against southpaws this season. Duffy’s command has been poor this season and Kansas City’s outfield defense won’t play as much of a factor at Minute Maid Park than it would at home.
Here are the top value hitters for July 25:
Kyle Seager ($3,600) – Seager has been one of Seattle’s most valuable players over the last couple of seasons. This year, the third baseman is batting .271/.327/.457 overall, but has a .413/.423/.700 over his last 10 games with seven extra-base hits. Seager has some reverse platoon splits this season, but he had hit 46 home runs over the last three seasons against right-handed pitching. Drew Hutchison, Saturday’s starter for the Jays, is dealing with an illness and also has reverse splits after allowing lefties to slug .477 last season. It’s a good matchup for Seager.
Mike Moustakas ($3,700) – We’ll stay at the hot corner for a later game with Mike Moustakas against Scott Feldman. Moose has a robust .296/.358/.444 slash this season and has posted a .322/.386/.493 slash against right-handers this season. He has done an excellent job of using the whole field and driving the ball to left field with authority. He looks like a changed hitter. In a band box like Minute Maid Park, don’t be surprised if he has a big day.
Carlos Gonzalez ($3,700) – This is a gamble against Johnny Cueto, who looked awful in his last start, as he couldn’t control anything. CarGo hit two bombs on Friday night and has been locked in since the start of June after a slow start start to the year. CarGo hit four homers in his first 45 games and has 12 in 40 games since. As you would expect, he has a .284/.343/.535 slash at home. At this price, in this park, Cueto or no Cueto, he’s worth a look.
Here are the top value pitchers for July 25:
Zach Lee ($5,800) – Any warm body with a pulse has been able to have success against the New York Mets lately. Enter Zach Lee, who will be making his Major League debut at Citi Field on Saturday. The 2010 draftee is a control pitcher with a pretty good feel for the craft and a long, lanky delivery. That could create some deception the first time or two through the Mets lineup as they try to score runs for Matt Harvey. His changeup is probably his best weapon against the Mets and it should be good enough for you to pair him with one of the aces on the board.
Taylor Jungmann ($7,600) – I’m on the Taylor Jungmann bandwagon. The 12th overall pick in 2011 has a 2.04 ERA with a 3.21 FIP and a 3.88 xFIP. Some regression red flags are there, but Jungmann’s command has been outstanding over his first 53 Major League innings. His extreme ground ball nature should allow him to have success at Chase Field and good fastball command is often all it takes to put together a good start. He’s not a high strikeout guy, but he should be a safe pick at a reasonable salary.
Hector Santiago ($9,100) – I’ve been wary of Hector Santiago on several occasions this season. In terms of ERA-FIP regression, Santiago pretty much takes the cake with a 2.30 ERA, 3.71 FIP, and a 4.17 xFIP. He’s averaging just shy of a strikeout per inning and the Rangers are 25th in wOBA against left-handed pitching with one of the worst K/BB ratios in the league. If regression is coming for Santiago, it will wait at least one more start.