It’s a nice day of Major League Baseball to wrap up the month of August with six day games and nine plus one night games on this Wednesday. The Dodgers and Rockies play a twin bill today. It’s the final day before rosters expand, so there are fewer players to sort through today than there will be throughout the rest of the season. Keep in mind that some of these call-ups may end up being bargain bin players, so they could carry some decent DFS value. But, we’ve got one more day before that happens, so let’s organize our thoughts for a full slate of baseball action.
Remember that our column here at BangTheBook is centered exclusively on finding value. You know who the good players are. So does everybody else. It’s those under-the-radar guys that you pair with those high-salary players that allow you to come out on top.
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The salaries listed are from DraftKings:
Here are the top teams to stack for August 31:
San Francisco (early) – The Giants offense has gradually been coming out of its six-week funk, including games with seven and 13 runs in the last series against the Braves. Hanging a big number on Shelby Miller seems like a decent possibility today. Miller has a 7.14 ERA with a 5.65 FIP and a 5.16 xFIP. He’s had virtually no command with a .335 BABIP against and 13 HR allowed in 69.1 innings of work. His walk rate is awful at 10.7 percent and he’s not missing enough bats to get out of jams. This is his first MLB start since July 6, so we’ll see if he actually fixed anything in Triple-A.
St. Louis (late) – The Cardinals have been among the league leaders against right-handed pitching all season long, so they should have plenty of success tonight against Matt Garza. Garza lowered his ERA in his last start because all five runs he allowed were unearned. It’s pretty clear that the 32-year-old with a long injury history is running out of mileage on his arm with poor K/BB rates and a lot of hits allowed. The Cardinals are one of the best stacking options of the night.
Cleveland (late) – The steady stream of lefties that the Indians have been seeing lately has given the switch hitters an extended look from the right side and has allowed players like Rajai Davis and Brandon Guyer to have more success with the platoon advantage. Pat Dean is the lefty that they will face tonight, marking their sixth lefty faced in the last seven games and seventh in the last nine. Dean has a 6.24 ERA with a 4.96 FIP and a 4.56 xFIP in 49 MLB innings. He has a 5.56 ERA and a 4.25 FIP in Triple-A this season.
Here are the top value hitters for August 31:
Rob Segedin (early) ($3,000) – With Josh Reddick’s platoon splits and struggles, Rob Segedin is getting some more looks for the Dodgers. The 27-year-old is making the most of his first MLB stint and he has a chance to add to it today against southpaw Tyler Anderson. Segedin is batting .348/.412/.617 against lefties in 131 PA between Triple-A and the bigs this year. He did a similar thing last year with a .341/.386/.488 in 88 plate appearances, so he’s a good platoon option, especially in the thin air.
Jefry Marte (late) ($3,200) – This one is a little bit of a gamble, but Brandon Finnegan’s home run rate plays well with the splits that Jefry Marte has. This season, Marte has actually struggled from an average and OBP standpoint against lefties, but he’s still slugging .469 with the platoon advantage. In 94 PA against LHP at the big league level, Marte has a .523 SLG with six homers and six doubles. Power adds up quickly in DFS, so he’s worth rostering.
Jose Reyes (late) ($3,700) – Jose Reyes doesn’t offer much in the way of power, but the Mets are getting some excellent production out of the switch hitter and he’s red hot right now. Reyes owns a .300/.344/.493 slash on the season, aided by some triples, but he’s batting .349/.391/.512 over his last 10 games and he’s been a big spark for a Mets offense that was mostly dormant earlier in the year.
Here are the top value pitchers for August 31:
Tyler Anderson (early) ($7,100) – I felt that this was a tough spot for the Dodgers with a standalone road series in Colorado, but today’s doubleheader makes it even harder. This will be a very long day at the ballpark for a team that just wants to get back home. That could play to Tyler Anderson’s advantage. I can make a case that the Dodgers will want to win early to secure at least a split, but Anderson can be frustrating because he induces a lot of ground balls and seems to have a knack for the Coors Field conditions.
Luke Weaver (late) ($4,500) – You might want to start paying attention to Luke Weaver. The 2014 first-round pick just might be here to stay. He’s posted some strong peripherals in the minor leagues and he’s getting more and more comfortable at the big league level. Weaver has a 3.60 ERA with a 4.61 FIP and a 3.13 xFIP in his 15 innings, but he’s struck out over a batter per inning and draws a very friendly matchup tonight in the Brewers.
Jason Hammel (late) ($6,800) – I’ve been waiting for Jason Hammel regression and it hasn’t come. Maybe the Cubs defense is just so spectacular this season that they’ve been able to keep it from happening. Hammel’s been able to carry a low BABIP and he’s pitching to less barrel contact this year with a five percent drop in line drives. He still has some strikeout upside and this is a very reasonable price for a guy having a solid season.