Nine games are on the docket for Monday night as teams try to figure out whether or not they will buy or sell. It is not a particularly exiting day for pitchers, with two cracking the five-figure mark. One of them is Anibal Sanchez, who has given up 21 home runs already this season. Only Chris Heston joins Sanchez and Lance Lynn as pitchers costing more than $9,000. It’s a tough to week to bet or play DFS with all of the trade uncertainty, but there’s always going to be value somewhere.
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The salaries listed are from DraftKings.
Here are the top teams to stack for July 27:
St. Louis – I really like Raisel Iglesias in the future. I’m not sure how much I like Iglesias right now. The Cuban import has averaged a strikeout per inning, but command remains a problem. He’s living in the middle of the plate too much and that’s a concern as a fly ball pitcher. This will be his third start back in the bigs after missing time and subsequently rehabbing an oblique injury. Things are uncomfortable in the Reds clubhouse right now with the Cueto trade and other moves that could be made and that stuff leaks onto the field.
Kansas City - The Indians quit on themselves last weekend and now to have pick themselves up off the mat to face the Kansas City Royals. The rejuvenated Royals know that the front office is getting them some help and they are playing at an extremely high level once again. They draw Cody Anderson on Monday, who has gotten really fortunate with batted balls over his first five Major League starts. Anderson has a .224 BABIP against, even though he has only struck out 12 of the 125 batters he has faced. He also has an 89 percent strand rate. Seeing those numbers continue against the Royals is unlikely.
New York Yankees – Don’t let Matt Harrison’s lucky start in Colorado fool you. He only struck out two and managed to scatter seven hits. Harrison is a below replacement level pitcher due to all of the injuries that he has dealt with over the last three seasons. The Yankees have hit a lot of home runs this season and Harrison is making just his third start of the season. It’s unrealistic to expect his command to be sharp and the Yankees have punished pitchers with poor command this season.
Here are the top value hitters for July 27:
Nick Castellanos ($3,200) – The Tigers have been waiting for Castellanos to come around since they promoted him. It seems that he may be finding some confidence and consistency. Since June 23, Castellanos is batting .316 with six homers, six doubles, and 21 RBI. It’s not ideal production, but it’s certainly pretty good for a player at this price. With a lot of pricey third basemen due to the nature of the pitching market today, Castellanos may provide some good value at a low price.
Mike Napoli ($3,400) – After struggling all season long, Mike Napoli has a .317/.385/.500 slash over his last 10 games and has turned himself into a viable trade candidate for the Boston Red Sox. Boston faces left-hander John Danks on Monday. Righties have hung a .306/.359/.520 slash on Danks this season with 12 home runs. His changeup command has been awful, which is a big reason why righties have a .341 BABIP and 12 home runs against him. Even in a down year, Napoli has an .823 OPS against southpaws.
Eric Hosmer ($4,400) – Because of the high salaries, some higher-priced hitters have some value on Monday. One of them is Eric Hosmer, who has a history of owning Indians pitching. He got a day off on Sunday, a much needed one, but he has a .349/.400/.494 slash in July after a lackluster month of June. Outside of June, he has been very consistent this season. If you don’t trust a Royals stack, at least add Hosmer in all formats.
Here are the top value starting pitchers for July 27:
Kyle Hendricks ($8,200) – I’ve been on this train before and I’ve bought another ticket for today. Hendricks has a 3.66 ERA with a 3.24 FIP and a 3.31 xFIP on the season, worth just over two wins for the Cubs. His tremendous control is a major asset and he has strikeout per inning upside without issuing many walks. He only has four wins in 19 starts, which is a concern in DFS formats, but the Rockies enter this game ranked 26th in road wOBA this eason. Their offensive performance is tied directly to Coors Field and they’ll be at Wrigley for this one.
Robbie Ray ($8,000) – I’m not a huge believer in Robbie Ray overall, but I do think that this start sets up really well for him. He’s somewhat of an extreme fly ball pitcher, which is doable at Safeco Field. The Diamondbacks have one of the league’s best defenses and Ray actually has some areas of improvement. His 69 percent LOB% should regress positively and his BABIP could drop given the number of fly balls. With a 2.72/2.63/3.95 pitcher slash, some home run regression is coming, but probably not on Monday.
Joe Kelly ($5,100) – When you’re looking at starting pitchers in DFS, you only need 10-12 points from guys in this salary range if you combine them with a top arm. Joe Kelly should be capable of something like that or better against the Chicago White Sox. The White Sox broke out of their offensive shell in Cleveland, but Kelly has made some good adjustments with Pawtucket, throwing more strikes and issuing fewer walks. It’s a small sample size of four starts, but he’s nowhere near as bad as he pitched during his first stint and he should get plenty of run support.