It’s definitely a good thing that all of the games are at night on Tuesday since there could be a lot of fireworks on the trade market during the day. There’s a very real possibility that Tuesday’s most expensive starter, David Price, could be scratched from that start. There’s a possibility, as well, that Jeff Samardzija may be bumped from his. Could Hisashi Iwakuma be bumped from his? Mike Leake may also get skipped. It’s a very tough day to pick pitchers with the uncertainty in the market.
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The salaries listed are from DraftKings.
Here are the top teams to stack for July 28:
Seattle – Zack Godley shined in his Major League debut with six shutout innings and seven strikeouts. The swing-and-miss stuff was there in the lower levels, but Godley jumped straight from Double-A, after just three starts, to the Major Leagues. It’s fair to wonder if he can have similar success on Tuesday against an American League lineup. The Mariners are back to being a respectable offensive team after scoring just 74 runs in 27 games in June. The Brewers chased a lot against Godley. The Mariners have some video to go on now and should be a more disciplined group.
Toronto – Everybody’s favorite stack on Tuesday will be Toronto against Philadelphia left-hander Adam Morgan. By now, everybody knows the numbers. The Blue Jays have a .362 wOBA and a 130 wRC+ as a team against southpaws. Their .832 OPS is more than 60 points better than the next best team (Tigers). Troy Tulowitzki won’t be in the lineup tonight, but they still have plenty of players capable of beating up Morgan and the Phillies bullpen.
Chicago Cubs – After a slugfest yesterday that saw the bullpens combine for nine innings, the Cubs turn to Dallas Beeler and the Rockies turn to Yohan Flande. Flande has been up as a reliever with the Major League team since early July. He has 12 starts in the minors, but no starts in the Majors. He has a mixed bag of MiLB results, but there’s nothing suggesting that he can hold the Cubs at bay in this start. He doesn’t miss many bats and the Cubs do damage when they make contact.
Here are the top value hitters for July 28:
Kolten Wong ($3,700) – As you might expect, hitters are really expensive on Tuesday with some many below average pitchers on the mound. Wong is currently scheduled to face Mike Leake, though who knows if that will happen. If the Reds do send out a righty, Wong has a .291/.356/.484 slash against them this season. If the Reds scratch Leake and use a lefty, get Wong out of there as quickly as you can. It’s unlikely that they would, unless they did something like spot-start Brandon Finnegan and that’s probably not an option.
Gerardo Parra ($3,400) – Parra should get a good shot to improve his trade value on Tuesday night against Matt Cain. Parra has been swinging a very good bat lately, posting a .492/.575/.632 slash over his last 10 games. For the season, Parra has a .318/.361/.505 slash and his splits really aren’t that bad for a team that is interested. He has a .323/.365/.510 against righties on the season, which is 37 percent above league average.
Corey Dickerson ($3,400) – The Rockies are taking it very easy with Corey Dickerson as he deals with plantar fasciitis. He should be in the lineup on Tuesday against Dallas Beeler, whose results have not been very appealing over the last four seasons. He’s posted some lower ERAs in the minors with higher advanced metrics and he has four mediocre MLB starts under his belt. Dickerson is 5-for-12 since his latest DL stint.
Here are the top value starting pitchers for July 28:
Wade Miley ($6,400) – Today’s pitching slate is ugly. Wade Miley might be the best of the cheap guys because he’s taking on a White Sox offense that has been deplorably bad against left-handed pitching this season. The White Sox have a .266 wOBA with a 63 wRC+ against guys that throw left-handed this season. Miley occasionally shows strikeout per inning upside and it could be a tricky start for Jeff Samardzija given the trade rumors.
Julio Teheran ($7,500) – I’m still buying Julio Teheran, even though most seem to be out on him for this season. His command is improving and his sequencing luck should continue to even out. He has only stranded 68.6 percent of his runners this season, a 7.3 percent from last year. Teheran is taking on an Orioles offense that hasn’t done a whole lot lately and he has the advantage of not facing them very often. There’s some upside in this play.
Jose Fernandez ($12,700) – Do it. Find a way and do it. I told you last time Fernandez pitched that I’d follow him into the depths of hell. He gave up three runs on five hits, but he also struck out 11. Now he’s back home against a Nationals lineup that is getting healthy, but some guys are coming back into the fold on Tuesday night and facing Jose Fernandez is not a good way to return to the lineup. Expect another dominant outing that justifies the cost. Find a cheap complement to go with him, like Miley, Chris Young against the awful Indians offense, or you could take a chance on Zack Godley because of the strikeout upside.