With all sorts of things going on this morning, apologies for being slightly late with today’s look at daily fantasy baseball contests. The MLB Trade Deadline is causing quite a stir and it could be a big day for Major League player movement. There are 13 games today, including two getaway day games, which have been excluded from this tips and suggestions article. Pitching is very clearly tiered today, with four guys over $10,000, four more over $8,000, and then the rest. Yovani Gallardo is the only one on the trade market and it is a “dice roll” per reports as to whether or not Gallardo is traded.
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The salaries listed are from DraftKings.
Here are the top teams to stack for July 30:
St. Louis – The Cardinals are down Matt Holliday and Matt Adams now, but they have a favorable matchup against left-hander Chris Rusin on Thursday night. Turning 29 in three months, Rusin is a fringe rotation guy on bad teams, like the Rockies. In 65.1 big league innings this season, Rusin has shown some poor command en route to a 4.13 ERA, 4.36 FIP, and 3.73 xFIP. The Cardinals have struggled against LHP in recent years, but Rusin has allowed 101 baserunners in 293 plate appearances. Even the weakest offenses will generate something with opportunities like that, especially against contact pitchers with bad command.
Baltimore – The Orioles are on a bit of a roll right now and Alfredo Simon shouldn’t be able to slow it down. The Tigers could lose two key pieces of their team today and that will officially signal the end of their current window of contention. That takes a toll on a team mentally and Simon is not going to give them much of a lift. In 19 starts, Simon and his spotty command have a 4.46 ERA with a 3.97 FIP and a 4.23 xFIP. He hasn’t been able to strand many runners and his ERA is a full run above last season’s performance. The Orioles have all kinds of aggressive hitters capable of doing damage in this game and they probably will.
Houston – I’ve been a supporter of Matt Shoemaker’s positive regression lately, but it may be time to step off of that train momentarily. Shoemaker’s biggest issue this season has been command and leaving too many pitches down the middle of the plate. Against Houston, that’s a problem. To be fair, Shoemaker has only allowed three home runs over his last nine starts, but he’s still not missing bats with much regularity and that’s what a pitcher has to do to be effective against Houston.
Here are the top value hitters for July 30:
Kevin Pillar ($3,400) – Rather than put it all on the line with a Toronto stack, picking up a guy like Kevin Pillar at a low price seems like a decent way to go about it. Pillar doesn’t have a whole lot of power, but he has a good chance of being involved today and could grab some easy points with runs scored or stolen bases. Remember, the whole point of this article and what makes it different than others is to find value. Because this game is expected to have quite a few runs, Pillar is a valuable pick at this price that allows you to spend on other areas.
Corey Dickerson ($3,300) – We’ll go back to this one as well, as the Rockies’ outfielder gets back into the lineup after Wednesday’s night off. The Rockies are being careful with him in his return from plantar fasciitis. In four games back, Dickerson is 7-for-16. He hasn’t shown power just yet, but the potential is still in there and now that he is playing his fifth game back, his timing should be coming back around. Even against a good arm like Carlos Martinez, Dickerson should still get his points.
Mike Napoli ($3,000) – As much as Mike Napoli has struggled this season, his .868 OPS and .373 wOBA against left-handed pitching are a big reason why he is 37 percent above league average versus southpaws. Chris Sale is definitely about as elite as they come, but Napoli is in a nice groove right now with a .333/.385/.650 slash over his last 10 games. He homered again on Wednesday off of Jose Quintana and is one of a few Red Sox capable of handling Sale.
Here are the top value starting pitchers for July 30:
Chris Bassitt ($4,200) – Bassitt won’t rack up strikeouts, but his fly ball style could make him an effective pitcher against the Indians on Thursday. The Indians have not scored many runs lately, their 12-run outburst on Wednesday excepted. The A’s are in “evaluation mode” now, which means that Bassitt should work as deep as he can and he was solid in his first start against the Indians. This is a fade of the Indians offense and the chance to get some cheap production out of Bassitt to pair him with a top arm.
Phil Hughes ($6,800) – Buying stock in Phil Hughes is hard to do, but the Mariners did very little against the Diamondbacks and they’re having a rough go of it offensively right now. Hughes has fiven up three runs or less in seven of his last nine starts and he doesn’t cost you any cheap points by walking batters.
Jimmy Nelson ($7,800) – If I asked you who the worst offenses over the last 30 days are, would you mention the Chicago Cubs? They are one of the worst offensive teams over the last 30 days with a .279 wOBA and the lowest wRC+ in baseball. Their .326 SLG is the lowest in the league. It’s hard to fathom, right? Jimmy Nelson has strikeout per inning upside and has the ability to keep the ball on the ground to limit damage. He’s certainly worth a look against an offense struggling as bad as the Cubs are.