Tuesdays are one of our favorite days to play daily fantasy baseball because all the games are at night and we have a traditional schedule. That means all day to consider the matchups and plenty of time to make adjustments in the event that guys are getting a breather. Technically, there are actually 16 games today, as the Brewers and Cubs honor the memory of Ernie Banks by playing two at Wrigley. We’ll exclude the matinee and look at the 15 games that will conclude under the lights.
Remember that our column here at BangTheBook is centered exclusively on finding value. You know who the good players are. So does everybody else. It’s those under-the-radar guys that you pair with those high-salary players that allow you to come out on top.
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The salaries listed are from DraftKings:
Here are the top teams to stack for August 16:
Seattle – There are quite a few low-priced starters worth stacking against on Tuesday night, but we’ll start with Jhoulys Chacin against the Seattle Mariners. The Mariners eked out a close win on Monday night against mostly-competent MLB starter Ricky Nolasco. After Chacin was blasted to the tune of seven runs in 1.1 innings his last time out, he enters this start with a 6.00 ERA with a 4.71 FIP and a 4.86 xFIP. Stacking Mariners lefties seems profitable, as Chacin has allowed a .278/.356/.479 slash to left-handed hitters.
Pittsburgh – This is a little bit of an unconventional stack, with a road team at AT&T Park, but the situation sets up pretty well for the Pirates. They’ll get their swings in against Jeff Samardzija. Samardzija has a 4.23 ERA with a 4.36 FIP and a 4.29 xFIP. However, since May 30, Samardzija has a 5.83 ERA with a 5.65 FIP and a 4.99 xFIP in a span of 13 starts. He only has 45 K in 75.2 innings of work and has allowed 16 HR in that span. The Pirates certainly have some guys capable of lighting him up tonight in a stack that most people won’t have.
Miami – I’m a big fan of Anthony DeSclafani, but he’s playing with fire right now. The Reds right-hander has a 3.11 ERA with a 3.92 FIP and a 4.06 xFIP. There are some signs of regression for him, with an 80.6 percent LOB%. He has decent K/BB peripherals, but that LOB% is definitely something that will come down as the season moves along. Not many people are thinking about Miami stacks with Giancarlo Stanton out, so this is another under-the-radar option.
Here are the top value hitters for August 16:
Aaron Judge ($2,700) – The situation isn’t as great as it was with David Dahl, who mostly had platoon advantages and the luxuries of Coors Field to start his MLB career, but Aaron Judge is swinging a good bat at the outset and has the short porches of Yankee Stadium to work with. Marco Estrada does have some pretty big signs of regression and he’s actually been fortunate to stave it off while his BABIP has risen.
David Dahl ($3,200) – Speaking of David Dahl, he’s back in our price range on Tuesday night. Dahl is facing lefty Gio Gonzalez, but Dahl actually has a higher OPS against LHP this season than RHP. He has a .337/.414/.551 slash against southpaws on the year. Factor in Coors Field and what that does to hitters and Dahl is an excellent value at this price, even if he has a bit of a tricky matchup in the eyes of most.
Mike Trout ($4,400) – In terms of the most expensive players for tonight, Mike Trout is not among them. That seems like something to take advantage of any time it happens. Trout owns a .353 wOBA and a 127 wRC+ against lefties on the season and a .393 wOBA with a 157 wRC+ in his career. Trout is always worthy of consideration, regardless of price, since he’s one of the game’s elite players, but this looks like a bargain against Ariel Miranda.
Here are the top value pitchers for August 16:
Braden Shipley ($7,400) – It is not a good night for value pitching. After a rocky MLB debut, Braden Shipley has allowed just two runs over his last 19 innings. He pitched around some walks two starts ago, but he does seem to be getting more comfortable at the big league level. Shipley is facing the Mets for the second time, so we’ll have to see how he adjusts, but he’s a decent gamble at this price.
Blake Snell ($8,700) – Blake Snell runs into a Padres lineup that has done very well against left-handed pitching this season, but they have fallen to seventh in wOBA after being in the top five most of the season, so maybe some fortunes are starting to turn. Snell has huge strikeout upside with 58 punchouts in 56.2 innings of work. He’s pitched extremely well in his first 11 starts with a 3.18/3.42/4.29 pitcher slash.
Jose Quintana ($9,200) – The Indians’ bats went silent on Monday against Drew Pomeranz and Jose Quintana may do the same to them on Tuesday night. The Indians have ranked in the bottom third in wOBA against lefties throughout the season and a matchup with Quintana takes some key players like Lonnie Chisenhall and Tyler Naquin out of the lineup. Quintana has a spectacular 2.85 ERA with a 3.42 FIP on the season.