Happy Weekend! It’s a Saturday slate on the diamond that features all 30 teams in action and a lot of shaky weather. Keep an eye to the skies and make sure that you don’t get stuck with any rainouts or starters that may have to exit the game early. It’s an often overlooked element of DFS contests, but it can be prevented. We’ll focus on the 11 night games coming up around the country as we look to cash big in those GPPs, H2Hs, and 50/50s on August 13.
Remember that our column here at BangTheBook is centered exclusively on finding value. You know who the good players are. So does everybody else. It’s those under-the-radar guys that you pair with those high-salary players that allow you to come out on top.
DraftKings or FanDuel are the industry leaders in ease of use and safe, free transactions. Use these tips and the tips from our daily radio show to improve your abilities and fill out the winning lineup. Our MLB daily fantasy tips and suggestions article is different in that we’re not looking for the top scorers, but for the best values so that you can get the edge that you need in order to save money for the game’s best players.
The salaries listed are from DraftKings:
Here are the top teams to stack for August 13:
Minnesota – We’ll start with a little bit of an unconventional stack as the Minnesota Twins face Dillon Gee. In eight starts and 15 relief appearances, Gee sports a 4.54 ERA with a 5.14 FIP and a 4.78 xFIP. He’s given up 15 dingers in 81.1 innings of work on the season, so the long ball has been part of his repertoire. You probably didn’t realize this, but the Twins have the third-best wRC+ since the All-Star Break at 108. They’ve been swinging the bats well and should again today.
Miami – Will the James Shields Regression Tour make a stop in South Beach? Shields got it together in the minds of traditional statisticians when he posted a 2.11 ERA in seven starts from June 23 to July 26. He had a 4.80 FIP and a 5.29 xFIP in that span with awful peripherals. Shields’s regression hit like a ton of bricks. In his last two starts, he’s allowed 14 runs on 15 hits in 6.1 innings of work. He’s back to getting lit up like the Griswold house and the Marlins could continue that trend.
Arizona – The Diamondbacks have fallen off the face of the earth this season, largely due to their pitching. The offense has been decent more often than not and they have a favorable matchup in a good hitter’s park on Saturday. The Snakes will swing against Clay Buchholz, who has a 5.64 ERA, a 5.61 FIP, and a 5.46 xFIP in his 91 innings. Buchholz has awful K/BB rates and has given up 17 dongs in his 26 appearances. The Diamondbacks add an extra hitter by virtue of playing in an AL park, so they’re worthy of consideration today.
Here are the top value hitters for August 13:
Hunter Pence ($3,100) – Like anything else, you want to play against extremes and recency bias. There’s a little bit of both with Hunter Pence. The Giants outfielder is batting .171/.209/.195 over his last 10 games, but we all know he’s a much better hitter than that. Pence draws Kevin Gausman today, a pitcher with really extreme reverse splits. Righties are slashing .292/.347/.524 against Gausman on the season, so that gives Pence a quality matchup.
Xander Bogaerts ($3,800) – This is one of the lowest prices of the year on Xander Bogaerts. Some BABIP regression has hit the Red Sox superstar, so he’s struggled over his last 10 games. Like Hunter Pence, we know that Bogaerts is a much better player than he has shown of late, so we play the percentages and look for him to turn it around quickly. He has a .315/.371/.459 slash on the season.
Steve Pearce ($2,900) – Keep an eye on Tampa Bay’s lineup since Steve Pearce has been a little bit banged up, but the platoon bat extraordinaire draws a left-hander today. It’s Madison Bumgarner, so it’s definitely a tough matchup, but Pearce has a 204 wRC+ in his 70 PA against lefties this season. He has a 131 wRC+ for his career, including a 208 wRC+ in 2014.
Here are the top value pitchers for August 13:
Mike Clevinger ($4,000) – This is a play partially built on upside, but also built by what my eyes have seen. Mike Clevinger has some strikeout upside, so there’s hope that he can give five or six innings with a K per inning and a decent stat line. The Angels have also taken quite a few early-count swings in this series and don’t seem all that engaged in playing. Clevinger has good raw stuff, albeit very raw and he can lose his poise in high-leverage spots. At this price point, as a complement to Madison Bumgarner or Jacob deGrom, he’s worth a look.
Reynaldo Lopez ($4,100) – The same can be said of Reynaldo Lopez. Lopez draws a much easier assignment in the Atlanta Braves, so he may be a better streaming option. He has 13 K in 8.2 innings of work and has shown some promise against two tough lineups. He faced the Dodgers in his debut and the Giants on the road in his second start. This is a much better draw and he’s definitely a good arm to pair with one of today’s aces.
Zach Davies ($7,600) – Zach Davies has been a very pleasant surprise for the Brewers this season. He has a 3.58 ERA with a 3.96 FIP and a 4.01 xFIP and he should cross the two-win plateau per Fangraphs’s WAR calculation before the month is out. Davies doesn’t miss a ton of bats, so his DFS upside is a little bit limited in that respect, but he induces a lot of weak contact and is a safe pick.