Four getaway day games and 11 night games are on the MLB schedule for Wednesday night. Today’s daily fantasy baseball suggestions article will also look at the four-game sample for the early ones, since going against the grain or digging deep for value may be the way to go today. The variance and volatility of larger sample sizes of games can be very tricky to beat, but isolating these small cards could be a good way to make some money.
As you know, this DFS article is a lot different from others, because we’re not projecting the best hitters and pitchers to take, rather trying to seek out the best values to add to your lineup. Keep that in mind as you peruse today’s suggestions looking for the magic formula to cash a big winner.
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The salaries listed are from DraftKings:
Here are the top teams to stack for August 5:
Tampa Bay – There are a couple of interesting stacking options in the early games, but the contrarian point of view is probably Tampa Bay. The Rays just knocked around Chris Sale on Tuesday night and draw another southpaw in Carlos Rodon on Wednesday. For all of their offensive shortcomings, the Rays are sixth in wOBA against lefties at .323 with a wRC+ that is 10 percent above league average. Rodon, as we know, has some control problems and the Rays generally field patient lineups. They haven’t walked as much this season, but they also don’t face many guys with the control profile of Rodon. Tampa Bay is fourth in SLG against lefties and could do some damage as a sneaky stack in the matinee games.
San Diego – As mentioned in my game preview for the Padres vs. Brewers matchup on Wednesday, regression is coming for Taylor Jungmann. You may not expect it to come against a lineup full of right-handed bats, but that’s what makes the Padres a great stacking candidate tonight. Jungmann has a 2.23 ERA with a 3.86 xFIP and a 3.82 SIERA. His strikeout rate is going to regress with a 7.7 percent whiff rate and his .271 BABIP against will climb as a ground ball pitcher that doesn’t get many swings and misses. Given their home park factor, the Padres have been exactly league average offensively since the Break. Playing at Miller Park may help them in this game.
San Francisco – I like Williams Perez, but he missed over a month with injury and came back to get torched by the Philadelphia Phillies to the tune of nine runs on nine hits with four walks in 4.1 innings of work. Perez has some upside with a decent arsenal and a high ground ball rate, but he also has questionable control and it seems like he is the type that will need some time to settle back in. The Giants quietly have a really strong offense and the third-best wRC+ since the Break.
Here are the top value hitters for August 5:
Richie Shaffer ($2,500) – Shaffer hit his first Major League home run on Tuesday night and that could be the first of many for the 24-year-old. Shaffer was slashing .265/.359/.595 with Triple-A Durham prior to his call up and had hit 23 home runs in 94 games so far this season. He does swing and miss quite a bit, but he also works a lot of deep counts and draws walks as a result. In his two minor league stops this season, Shaffer slashed .273/.395/.621 in 81 PA against lefties.
Nick Ahmed ($2,600) – The Diamondbacks are a pretty quality offensive team and they seem to be getting contributions from various guys on a nightly basis. One that could be a surprise contributor on Wednesday is Nick Ahmed. Ahmed has uninspiring numbers on the season, but he owns a .324/.393/.432 slash against lefties, which is 26 percent above league average. Ahmed has an 8/8 K/BB ratio against lefties and has a couple of home runs. You can save money at shortstop to load up on outfielders or pitchers by picking a cheap option like Ahmed.
Stephen Piscotty ($3,300) – Piscotty showed some reverse splits in the minor leagues this season, but has historically hit lefties better than righties and he draws a very hittable lefty in David Holmberg on Wednesday. He’s 6-for-13 against lefties so far at the Major League level, which isn’t much of a sample to draw from, but he posted an .804 OPS against lefties in 2014 in the minor leagues. With such small sample sizes, it is hard to slap predictive value on him, but he puts bat to ball and the Cardinals should score some runs off of Holmberg and the Reds pen.
Here are the top value starting pitchers for August 5:
Hector Santiago ($9,400) – Later, rinse, repeat. Picking pitchers against the Indians of late has been a pretty profitable endeavor and it should be again on Wednesday. After a late extra inning affair last night in which the Indians scored two runs on 10 hits, they have a quick turnaround before flying home for a day off. Normally, I look to go against pitchers with big ERA to xFIP/SIERA discrepancies, like Santiago’s 2.70 ERA and 4.38 xFIP, but I won’t do that here. Santiago is a strikeout per inning pitcher with decent control and a .206/.293/.330 slash allowed at home this season.
Carlos Martinez ($8,700) – Martinez is one of the reasons why the Cardinals have played and pitched so well in the absence of Adam Wainwright. He has gotten stronger as games have gone on and he may have some of the best pure stuff in the National League. Martinez has averaged better than a strikeout per inning and has a 2.61 ERA with a 3.45 FIP and a 3.24 xFIP. Keep in mind that Martinez has two relief appearances that have skewed his points per game statistic, if you use that as a determining factor at all.
Scott Kazmir ($9,300) – The Rangers offense has been pretty good of late, but they run into Scott Kazmir on Wednesday and that presents a problem. Kazmir hasn’t given up a run yet in his 14.2 innings for the Astros to lower his season ERA to 2.10. The Rangers are 21st in wOBA against lefties and have one of the highest strikeout percentages. With Nick Martinez going for the Rangers, a strikeout per inning, a win, and a low walk rate awaits if you take Kazmir tonight.