The Chicago Cubs and San Francisco Giants begin at 4:05 p.m. ET, so they are exempt from the August 7 look at the daily fantasy baseball landscape. There are several games with betting totals of 6.5 or lower, which is why there are seven pitchers that are going to cost you are least $10,300 tonight and there are a couple others that will run you nine grand or more. In what is expected to be a poor night for offense, we’ll dig deep to see what kinds of players we can find.
As you know, this DFS article is a lot different from others, because we’re not projecting the best hitters and pitchers to take, rather trying to seek out the best values to add to your lineup. Keep that in mind as you peruse today’s suggestions looking for the magic formula to cash a big winner.
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The salaries listed are from DraftKings:
Here are the top teams to stack for August 7:
Arizona – I really like Raisel Iglesias. I think the stuff is there and I think the tools are there. What I don’t like about this start is the opponent and the ballpark. Iglesias has shown the ability to miss some bats, but he is also a fly ball pitcher heading to Chase Field, which boasted well above average park factors in doubles, triples, and home runs. If the Diamondbacks can get some traffic on the bases, they should have success. Iglesias, a 25-year-old Cuban import, is still trying to get his emotions in check in tight spots and smooth out his mechanics from the stretch. With men on, opposing batters have hit .289/.367/.432 and it improves to .341/.391/.535 in 47 PA with men in scoring position.
Kansas City – Resilience has been the most important trait of the Kansas City Royals during their 2.5-year run. They’re struggling a little bit right now, but they seem to have these games where they break out and then get on a roll again. A matchup against John Danks may be just what they need. Danks has thrown the ball well lately, with three good starts out of his last four outings. But, the changeup command is way down this season and he’s been able to pitch around some walks lately. The Royals will be facing him for the fourth time this season and, for whatever reason, Danks has given up at least five runs in four of his last five road starts. In the one he didn’t, he managed a complete game shutout against Houston with 10 hits allowed.
Minnesota – As quickly as hype built around Cody Anderson, it has crashed down just as fast. Anderson allowed three earned runs over his first four starts as a Major Leaguer. Over his last three starts, spanning 15 innings, Anderson has allowed 15 runs on 24 hits with four home runs and six walks allowed. He doesn’t miss bats and that’s his biggest problem. The Indians have improved their infield defense, but Anderson’s command has dropped off in such a big way that it hasn’t mattered. The Twins are in a major funk right now, but the old adage is that teams have to “hit their way out of it”. Anderson gives them that chance.
Here are the top value hitters for August 7:
Adrian Gonzalez ($3,600) – What you will see on days like today is a lot of great hitters that are priced low because of the opposing pitcher. Gonzalez, who has cost at least $4,000 on DraftKings in eight of the last 10 games, is just $3,600 tonight and that makes him a great candidate at first base. As outstanding as Gerrit Cole is, Gonzalez is batting .294/.379/.555 against right-handed pitching this season. That’s a 158 wRC+, which means that it is 58 percent above league average. Cole or not, that’s a great stat line. Don’t shy away from great hitting talent if the price is right.
Andrew McCutchen ($4,000) – Cutch is another example from the same game. You’ll never catch Cutch at this price. But, since he’s facing Clayton Kershaw, McCutchen winds up being a good value. On the season, he’s batting .308/.384/.446 against lefties, which is 38 percent above league average. For his career, McCutchen is a .327/.414/.564 hitter, that’s 69 percent above league average. Good hitters will hit good pitching. McCutchen is one of the best.
Nelson Cruz ($4,700) – Continuing the same theme, you’d be wise to take a look at Nelson Cruz. Cruz takes on Cole Hamels on Friday night, so his salary is the lowest it has been in a while. It’s not a surprise to see this, but Cruz has decimated left-handed pitching this season. He has a .387/.467/.731 slash. That’s 130 percent better than league average. The salary is still high, but there’s clearly value there in a performer of that caliber at his most reasonable price tag in a long time.
Here are the top value pitchers for August 7:
Raisel Iglesias ($5,800) – I realize what I said above about stacking Arizona. On the other hand, if you’re looking at a 50/50, H2H, or a different GPP lineup, Iglesias will have some value as a guy that you can pair with one of the top pitchers. He doesn’t work overly deep into games because of efficiency problems, but he’s almost a strikeout per inning guy. Chase Anderson is making his first start back off the DL, so Iglesias may get some run support and could throw a quality start with a strikeout per inning. That plays nicely at this price.
Aaron Nola ($6,000) – Through three Major League starts, righties are batting .154/.175/.316 against Aaron Nola. We know about how right-handed heavy the Padres are. Nola has a 13/1 K/BB against right-handed batters over 40 batters faced and will be pitching in a pretty good park to pitch in. Petco Park isn’t the pitcher’s haven that it used to be, but Nola’s biggest concern to date has been home runs and some of the balls that leave Citizens Bank Park won’t leave Petco.
Julio Teheran ($7,200) – Completely overshadowed by Jose Fernandez in this start, Julio Teheran merits consideration at this price. The Atlanta Braves “ace” has had a tough year, but he has the best swing-and-miss rate of his career and some unfortunate sequencing luck has hurt his run prevention numbers. He hasn’t pitched nearly as bad as his stats suggest and the Marlins are the worst team in baseball against right-handed pitching. For whatever reason, Teheran has been awful on the road, but owns a 2.37 ERA with a .197/.278/.277 slash against at home.