A big night is ahead on the diamond, as 15 of today’s 16 games will conclude under the lights. Only 14 of those games are available for those looking to play in DraftKings contests, as the doubleheader between the New York Mets and St. Louis Cardinals has been eliminated from the discussion. With that, we’ll sort through the 28 teams in action here tonight to look for some great value opportunities to help you win big in those H2H, 50/50, and GPP contests.
Remember that our column here at BangTheBook is centered exclusively on finding value. You know who the good players are. So does everybody else. It’s those under-the-radar guys that you pair with those high-salary players that allow you to come out on top.
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The salaries listed are from DraftKings:
Here are the top teams to stack for July 26:
Boston – We’ve been stacking against Mike Pelfrey just about every time he takes the mound, but it’s a lot easier to stomach today. Pelfrey and the Tigers continue their series at Fenway Park, so the Boston Red Sox will be looking to take some hacks against one of the worst pitchers in baseball. The numbers are as bad as they’ve always been for Pelfrey and he’s coming off of a start in which he allowed eight hits in 5.1 innings, struck out just one, and only allowed one run. Sounds like regression!
Chicago Cubs – It seems like cherry picking to stack against James Shields, but you have to realize that Shields has been really good lately. He’s allowed two runs or less in each of his last five starts, while going at least six innings in all of them. But, he’s posted LOB% of 100, 75, 100, 89.3, and 100 in those five outings. He’s only struck out 16 in 34.1 innings. BABIP luck and sequencing variance have been on his side. Don’t expect that to be the case again here.
Houston – Regression has arrived for the hefty lefty and I think it’s going to continue. CC Sabathia now owns a 4.04 ERA with a 3.88 FIP and a 4.75 xFIP. His 6.5 percent HR/FB% is unsustainably low for a guy that hasn’t been lower than 12.5 percent in any of the last four seasons. Houston has some power and they walk a lot. Sabathia is posting his worst BB% since 2004, so expect the Astros to get a lot of traffic out there and take advantage of mistakes.
Here are the top value hitters for July 26:
David Dahl ($2,100) – Expect to see David Dahl’s name here with some frequency over the next couple weeks. At $2,100, he’s definitely worth a look. Dahl was one of the top offensive prospects in the minor leagues until his MLB debut on Monday. He has a .313/.387/.567 slash against righties on the season with 14 of his 18 home runs. Chris Tillman, as good as he has been, has still allowed a .419 SLG to left-handed hitters this year.
Mac Williamson ($2,600) – The Giants’ slugger seems to be getting accustomed to the big leagues. After a little bit of a slow start to 2016, Williamson is slashing .293/.370/.634 in the month of July and has hit four home runs against lefties in just 57 plate appearances. Cody Reed has already given up nine home runs in 30.2 innings for the Reds, so look for Williamson to get some good cuts against the southpaw today.
Joc Pederson ($3,300) – Something has to give here. Joc Pederson does swing and miss a lot, but he also has prolific power. Chris Archer induces a lot of swings and misses, but he’s also fought with his command this season. Pederson had 12 dingers in 253 PA against RHP before getting sent down and owns a career .222/.355/.433 slash against righties. The average isn’t great for DFS purposes, but he gets on base and has power.
Here are the top value pitchers for July 26:
Tyler Skaggs ($5,600) – Normally, this is a gamble that I don’t like to make. Tyler Skaggs is making his return to the big leagues after going through the Tommy John surgery and rehab process. In nine rehab starts, Skaggs worked 39.1 innings and struck out 53 batters. He scattered 26 hits and allowed seven earned runs. That’s against minor leaguers, but it does seem like he’s finally pain-free and he was more than a strikeout per inning guy in the minors for a while.
Gio Gonzalez ($6,500) – Gio Gonzalez has been riding the struggle bus for a while of late, but he draws an Indians lineup that rates very poorly against left-handed pitching. The Indians also don’t see much of Gonzalez, so the unfamiliar lefty angle is in play here. He won’t have to hit, which is probably beneficial for him, so we’ll look for him to ride the momentum of his last start. He does have over a strikeout per inning this year and signs of positive regression.
Marcus Stroman ($8,400) – Any right-hander with a pulse is a decent streaming option against the San Diego Padres. Marcus Stroman is no different. Stroman has had some bad luck this season, as his 4.90 ERA can attest to, given his 3.95 FIP and 3.60 xFIP. With those signs of positive regression and one of the worst lineups against righties, Stroman is definitely worth a look this evening.