Eight teams have today off and there are a couple of day games, so our focus falls to the nine night games on Thursday July 7. There are four days until the All-Star Break, so we should still get a max effort and regular lineups, but tread lightly over the weekend. We’ll have DFS tips and suggestions Friday and Saturday, but nothing on Sunday since it’s basically a throwaway day around the league. For now, let’s see how we can win big tonight.
Remember that our column here at BangTheBook is centered exclusively on finding value. You know who the good players are. So does everybody else. It’s those under-the-radar guys that you pair with those high-salary players that allow you to come out on top.
DraftKings or FanDuel are the industry leaders in ease of use and safe, free transactions. Use these tips and the tips from our daily radio show to improve your abilities and fill out the winning lineup. Our MLB daily fantasy tips and suggestions article is different in that we’re not looking for the top scorers, but for the best values so that you can get the edge that you need in order to save money for the game’s best players.
The salaries listed are from DraftKings:
Here are the top teams to stack for July 7:
Colorado – Coors Field is on the schedule for tonight, so that means a good opportunity to stack in the best hitting environment in baseball. Adam Morgan picks up a start in place of Aaron Nola, who is struggling badly right now. Morgan has a 6.31 ERA with a 5.16 FIP and a 4.68 xFIP on the season. He’s also a fly ball pitcher in a place where fly balls are very bad. In 61.1 innings this season, he’s allowed 13 HR. In 145.2 career innings, he’s allowed 27 HR. All of those are promising numbers to stack against.
Philadelphia – Oh, look. Coors Field again. Sorry for being unimaginative, but it is what it is. Chad Bettis sports a 5.85 ERA with a 4.19 FIP and a 4.00 xFIP. His low walk rate helps in the FIP department, but it’s pretty clear that his command is lacking. It’s very hard to be a ground ball pitcher and allow 12 HR in 95.1 innings of work. His .347 BABIP and 22.8 percent line drive rate both suggest that he’s getting hit pretty hard. The Phillies are one of the top offenses in the league over the last couple of weeks, so they ride that momentum into a place where hitting is fun.
San Diego – Since you only have a couple of spots to fill after stacking the Coors crowd, the Padres are a good look on Thursday night. They draw left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu, who will be making his first start since September 12, 2014. Ryu had two solid seasons in 2013 and 2014, but has been sidelined ever since with shoulder issues. Ryu made eight rehab starts between High-A and Triple-A, but he’s back in the bigs now. In his rehab starts, he gave up 16 runs on 32 hits in 27.2 innings.
Here are the top value hitters for July 7:
Yangervis Solarte ($3,300) – One of those Padres to consider is Yangervis Solarte. Dual eligibility helps here, as Solarte can slot in at either second or third and has a .375/.457/.625 slash on the season against left-handed pitching. Solarte is a hot trade candidate as we approach the deadline, since he’s also hitting .284/.366/.483 against right-handed pitching. He’s a good value buy on most nights.
Nick Castellanos ($3,600) – For whatever reason, Nick Castellanos’s breakout season has come at the expense of same-side pitching. The Tigers third baseman has mauled right-handed pitching this season with a .336/.372/.559 slash in 247 plate appearances. We know that command isn’t a strong suit for Drew Hutchison, so this could be an opportunity for Castellanos to continue to pad those stats against righties.
Salvador Perez ($2,900) – You never want to spend a lot for a catcher because production is so hit or miss. Salvador Perez is a good buy tonight against James Paxton. Perez owns a .275/.309/.446 career slash against lefties and has a .469 SLG so far on the season. With limited financial resources to use on a backstop, he’s the best of the bunch under $3,000.
Here are the top value pitchers for July 7:
Jason Hammel ($7,400) – I’ve been looking for regression out of Jason Hammel, but that shouldn’t be a worry against the Braves. Atlanta is the worst offense in baseball against both lefties and righties, so Hammel has plenty of upside tonight. In terms of the nighttime card, there’s not a whole lot of strikeout upside, so Hammel is almost a must-stream in all formats tonight.
Danny Duffy ($9,300) – This price is undoubtedly inflated based on a pretty small sample size of starts, but we don’t have much of a choice tonight. Danny Duffy has 87 K in 75.1 innings of work and has managed to carry a high K rate in his conversion back to the rotation. In his last six starts, Duffy has struck out at least eight five different times. The left-handed-heavy Mariners could have some difficulty here against Duffy.
Lucas Giolito ($8,100) – The uberprospect gets another opportunity in the starting rotation with Joe Ross heading to the disabled list. Giolito possesses excellent raw stuff and that could wreak some havoc against a Mets offense that hasn’t been able to live up to its billing or its second half performance of a year ago. The Mets are 19th in wOBA against right-handed pitching, so Giolito is worth a stream tonight.