We’ve got two days of real baseball left until the All-Star Break. Sunday’s going to be a bad day for DFS and for handicapping, since effort levels are going to be all over the map, so it’s best to just avoid that day. We will here, as well, with no DFS or picks and analysis piece for the last day of the first half. In the meantime, we’ll dig deep on Friday and Saturday to give you the information that you need in order to be a big winner.
Remember that our column here at BangTheBook is centered exclusively on finding value. You know who the good players are. So does everybody else. It’s those under-the-radar guys that you pair with those high-salary players that allow you to come out on top.
DraftKings or FanDuel are the industry leaders in ease of use and safe, free transactions. Use these tips and the tips from our daily radio show to improve your abilities and fill out the winning lineup. Our MLB daily fantasy tips and suggestions article is different in that we’re not looking for the top scorers, but for the best values so that you can get the edge that you need in order to save money for the game’s best players.
The salaries listed are from DraftKings:
Here are the top teams to stack for July 8:
Toronto – Happy Mike Pelfrey Day! Pelfrey has actually thrown the ball fairly well over his last three outings, but the last one came against the Rays, who are awful against righties and another came in relief against the Indians, who had already built a big lead. Pelfrey owns a 4.78 ERA with a 5.29 FIP and a 5.06 xFIP on the year. His assignment today is the Toronto Blue Jays, who are sixth in MLB in wOBA against RHP and have a lot of guys capable of hitting dingers.
Seattle – Speaking of teams that do well against RHP, the Mariners are fifth in wOBA and tied for third in wRC+ in that split and they have a good matchup today against Yordano Ventura. Ventura is pitching through a mild ankle sprain, which should act up on him during the game. He’s also struggling quite a bit this season with a 5.26 ERA, a 5.12 FIP, and a 5.05 xFIP. He’s allowed 13 HR in 87.1 innings after allowing 14 HR in 163.1 innings last season.
Chicago Cubs – Francisco Liriano’s disastrous first half could come to a rough end on Friday night against the Cubs. Chicago is third in wOBA against left-handed pitching and also third in wRC+. The Cubs have one of the best walk rates against lefties and Liriano has walked 55 in 87.2 innings of work. He walked 70 in 186.2 innings last season. With terrible command and worse control, Liriano owns a 5.34 ERA with a 5.33 FIP and a 4.79 xFIP on the season.
Here are the top value hitters for July 8:
Justin Upton ($2,300) – It’s been a rough season for Justin Upton. Kate could probably do a better job at the plate right now. But, JUp has a decent matchup here tonight against JA Happ. Righties have been carving up Detroit’s big free agent signing, but he’s racked up nine extra-base hits against lefties in just 99 plate appearances. He has a .422 SLG against lefties on the year. Upton is a career .270/.375/.499 hitter against lefties. I’ll trust those numbers over the smaller sample size, but his power production against southpaws is decent this season.
Mac Williamson ($2,900) – Mac Williamson is a big dude that can really generate some power. In a small sample size this season, Williamson looks like a platoon bat capable of hammering left-handed pitching. Patrick Corbin is left-handed, so Williamson is worth a look today. All three of his MLB HR have come against lefties in just 44 plate appearances. He actually did really well against same-side pitching in the minors, so he’s got a chance after Corbin leaves the game.
Cameron Rupp ($3,900) – The Phillies backstop is slugging .490 on the season and his team is playing at Coors Field tonight. There’s always value in taking guys at Coors Field. Even though Rupp’s recent hot stretch drove up his price tag a little bit, the Colorado factor should be represented in your DFS lineup every single day, whether it’s a stack or just a couple of players.
Here are the top value pitchers for July 8:
Chad Green ($5,500) – There’s a chance that the Cleveland Indians are hitting the wall. This is a team that has had three days off since May 13 and they also played a doubleheader in that span. Chad Green has shown the propensity to miss bats in his short MLB sample and in his extended minor league sample. At this price point, you could certainly do a lot worse and it’s a good reminder that pitchers are low salaries really don’t need to do a whole lot to serve their purpose.
Chris Archer ($6,800) – My best guess is that a lot of people will stay away from Chris Archer today at Fenway Park. Their loss could be your gain. Archer has averaged 17.2 points per start in DraftKings formats and that’s plenty good enough for this price. The command has been iffy, but the strikeouts are there. If you want to gamble on a high-upside starter at a good price, this is the spot to do it.
Collin McHugh ($7,500) – This is a pretty decent spot to gamble on Collin McHugh. The Athletics are down to 28th in wOBA against right-handed pitching. Only the Padres and Braves have lower wOBAs in that split. McHugh has allowed seven runs over his last four starts, so maybe things are turning a corner. He was due for some regression and you’ll be sitting pretty if the positive side of that continues.