For the final time in the first half of the 2016 MLB season, we’re bringing you daily fantasy baseball advice. Sunday’s slate of games features way too much uncertainty to be investing money from either a handicapping or a DFS standpoint, so we’ll finish things up on Saturday. There is a full slate of games to consider, including some interesting pitchers and a lot of players looking to end the first half on a high note.
Remember that our column here at BangTheBook is centered exclusively on finding value. You know who the good players are. So does everybody else. It’s those under-the-radar guys that you pair with those high-salary players that allow you to come out on top.
DraftKings or FanDuel are the industry leaders in ease of use and safe, free transactions. Use these tips and the tips from our daily radio show to improve your abilities and fill out the winning lineup. Our MLB daily fantasy tips and suggestions article is different in that we’re not looking for the top scorers, but for the best values so that you can get the edge that you need in order to save money for the game’s best players.
The salaries listed are from DraftKings:
Here are the top teams to stack for July 9:
Colorado – The Rockies will get some swings against Jerad Eickhoff in what could be a very bad matchup for the right-hander. Coors Field can wreak havoc on breaking balls because of the unique altitude conditions and that’s the problem with Eickhoff. He’s seventh in curveball % on the season, so he relies heavily on his primary secondary pitch. Add in 16 percent usage on his slider and all the makings are there for a lot of flat secondaries. Those get hit a long way.
Baltimore – Nick Tropeano is the middle class version of Chris Young. Or maybe Chris Young is a poor man’s Nick Tropeano. However you want to word it, Tropeano could be walking into a tough situation here on Saturday. Tropeano has a 3.28 ERA with a 4.90 FIP and a 5.05 xFIP. He’s walked 11 percent of opposing batters and has given up 10 HR in 60.1 innings. These are all bad things as a fly ball pitcher going to Oriole Park at Camden Yards. It could be a long, or short, depending on how you look at it, day for Tropeano.
New York (AL) – Going to take a stab at this one. American League All-Star Danny Salazar has one last start before heading out to San Diego and it comes on Saturday against the Yankees. So far, Salazar has been able to work around an 11 percent BB% with the help of an increased ground ball rate, a great infield defense, and a high strand rate. His 85.6 percent strand rate should regress and his 2.36 ERA, 3.31 FIP, and 3.73 xFIP suggest regression. It could very well happen here, as he’s seemed to be teetering on the brink of regression in recent starts.
Here are the top value hitters for July 9:
David Freese ($3,600) – With the impending All-Star Break, it’s best to be really selective this weekend. David Freese should be trustworthy. He’ll bat in a premier spot for the Pirates against Jon Lester. Entering play on Friday, Freese owned a .333/.400/.603 slash against lefties, good for a 168 wRC+ and a .419 wOBA. In his career, Freese is a .299/.370/.473 hitter against southpaws.
Adam Duvall ($3,700) – It might really be time to take Adam Duvall seriously. He now has 30 HR in 461 plate appearances as a Major League. He’s slugging .507. Duvall will participate in the Home Run Derby in his first All-Star Game and that seems to be a pretty good choice. Duvall draws Adam Conley on Saturday. Three of his 22 HR have come off of lefties, but he doesn’t have a big sample size against them. Conley has a .310 SLG against at home, but it balloons to .422 on the road.
Brandon Belt ($3,700) – We get a bit of a bargain on Brandon Belt for facing a same-side pitcher, but that’s quite alright. Belt is a .300/.399/.519 hitter on the season, but he’s done quite well against lefties with a .279/.380/.529 slash. He actually has a higher SLG against lefties than against righties, so it seems like the algorithms bias in lowering players without a platoon advantage actually gives us an edge here on Saturday.
Here are the top value pitchers for July 9:
Lance McCullers ($9,700) – Strikeout upside is really hard to find at a reasonable price on Saturday. The best option is probably fireballer Lance McCullers, who draws an Oakland lineup that is among the league’s worst in wOBA against right-handed pitching. McCullers has 66 K in 53 innings of work so far. He has fought with his control a little bit, but the A’s aren’t walking like the old Moneyball teams, so this is a great option.
Tyler Anderson ($4,900) – Streaming Coors pitchers is not a good idea, but if you want to combine a low-priced pitcher with one of the top arms, Anderson might actually be the one to go with. His extreme ground ball rate may allow him to play up a little bit in Denver and the unfamiliar lefty angle is also in play here. That gives the Rockies southpaw a chance at putting up a decent number.
Carlos Martinez ($9,300) – The Cardinals right-hander takes on a Milwaukee lineup that does swing and miss quite a bit. Martinez has 80 strikeouts in 102.1 innings of work, so he hasn’t been able to keep up a great pace, but this is a good lineup for getting back on track. Martinez has solid peripherals on the season and has an offense that can give him a lot of support. That could take the pressure off early and allow him to coast.