Thanks to Canada Day and the start time in Washington, our focus is narrowed to 13 of the 15 games today in daily fantasy formats. The Indians attempt to run their streak to 14 with a 1:07 p.m. ET first pitch and the Nationals look for another win over the Reds beginning at 6:05 p.m. ET. To make it easy, we’ll focus solely on the “night” portion of the Friday night schedule at 7:05 p.m. ET or later. As always, there are plenty of options and plenty of angles to consider in your DFS contests.
Remember that our column here at BangTheBook is centered exclusively on finding value. You know who the good players are. So does everybody else. It’s those under-the-radar guys that you pair with those high-salary players that allow you to come out on top.
DraftKings or FanDuel are the industry leaders in ease of use and safe, free transactions. Use these tips and the tips from our daily radio show to improve your abilities and fill out the winning lineup. Our MLB daily fantasy tips and suggestions article is different in that we’re not looking for the top scorers, but for the best values so that you can get the edge that you need in order to save money for the game’s best players.
The salaries listed are from DraftKings:
Here are the top teams to stack for July 1:
Houston – The red-hot Astros finally managed to gain ground on the Rangers in the AL West, in part because they didn’t play. The Astros got the bats going last month with an average of 4.8 runs per game and they should be able to build off of that number here against Miguel Gonzalez. Gonzalez has been a punching bag for teams in his 10 starts and one relief appearance with a 5.17 ERA and a 4.87 xFIP. He’s actually been lucky to scrape by with a below average walk rate and a .327 BABIP against. If he sees any home run rate regression, he’s going to be even worse in the coming weeks.
St. Louis – Matt Garza is still a thing. Surprising, isn’t it? The embattled right-hander has posted a 2.81 ERA in three starts this season, but the advanced metrics tell a more harrowing tale. He’s stranded 80 percent of his runners despite a terrible K% and a .345 BABIP against. St. Louis enters this game as the fourth-best offense by wOBA against righties and should get plenty of good swings against the 32-year-old.
Minnesota – This one is a bit of a gamble, but there’s a method to the madness. Martin Perez has a 3.44 ERA with a 4.74 FIP and a 4.92 xFIP. We sometimes see metrics like this from extreme fly ball guys, but rarely from extreme ground ball hurlers. Perez’s 53.7 percent GB% comes with a 78.6 percent strand rate and a .273 BABIP against. I don’t have an xBABIP calculator handy, but I can assure you that it’s closer to .300 with a 20.3 percent LD% and a 53.7 percent GB%. We should see some regression in that and somebody it happens when you least expect it.
Here are the top value hitters for July 1:
Trayce Thompson ($3,300) – It’s kind of incredible that Trayce Thompson is still so underrated by the DFS algorithms. Maybe the batting average isn’t there, but he has a solid walk rate and tremendous power with a .463 SLG. It should be elevated a bit against lefty Jorge de la Rosa. Thompson is a couple ticks below league average against lefties, but he’s still slugging .446 in that split. Last season, in a similar sample size, Thompson hit .327/.362/.636. His true talent is somewhere between these two seasons, in all likelihood, but the power upside is what we want at this price.
Carlos Gonzalez ($3,400) – It’s rare to get a player with CarGo’s upside in this particular price range, but that’s the case here and he has a very favorable opponent in Bud Norris. Gonzalez is raking to the tune of a .436/.488/.769 slash over the last 10 days and is batting .329/.375/.584 for the season. Away from Coors Field, he’s still batting .288/.339/.438, so that’s plenty good enough, and he has a .412 wOBA against righties on the year.
Chris Carter ($3,600) – Power potential is what we want and Chris Carter provides plenty of it. The Milwaukee Brewer has hit 19 home runs this season and has nine extra-base hits, including five home runs, in just 74 PA against left-handed pitching. Jaime Garcia has been struggling a little bit of late and may be pitching with some ailments, as he seems to do every single season. Carter has a .447 career SLG against lefties.
Here are the top value pitchers for July 1:
Shelby Miller ($4,200) – Earning confidence back in the DFS or betting markets is not easy. Shelby Miller has a lot of work to do in order to gain some favor, but he’s priced really nice here tonight. He had a 7.09/6.67/5.87 pitcher slash prior to his DL stint. He came back and threw a quality game against Philadelphia before getting bombed in Denver. I’m going to give him a pass for that game. Remember, you don’t need a big score here to get good ROI. You just need enough to add a top arm like Michael Fulmer.
Nate Eovaldi ($5,400) – Nate Eovaldi has been terrible for the last few weeks, as his command has taken a total nosedive and he’s stopped missing bats. San Diego seems like a good place to stop the skid. The Padres are 30th in wOBA against right-handed pitching this season and only the Braves have a lower SLG than the Padres. Facing one less hitter could help Eovaldi get back on track.
Ian Kennedy ($8,800) – This is a few dollars higher than you want to pay for Ian Kennedy, but the Philadelphia Phillies are a good matchup for Kennedy. He’s used to having to hit, so that shouldn’t bother him, and the right-hander draws a lineup that is 28th in wOBA against right-handers. He’s also racked up 85 K in 88.2 innings of work, so we have good strikeout potential as well.