I think we’ve all got a case of the Tuesdays today. Coming out of the long holiday weekend, Tuesday feels like Monday and we’ll all thrown off now. Fortunately, the Tuesday daily fantasy slate should help you get back on track with one day game and 14 night games. That gives us a lot of time to get back into the swing of the work day and then break down the matchups to make that paper in the world of DFS.
Remember that our column here at BangTheBook is centered exclusively on finding value. You know who the good players are. So does everybody else. It’s those under-the-radar guys that you pair with those high-salary players that allow you to come out on top.
DraftKings or FanDuel are the industry leaders in ease of use and safe, free transactions. Use these tips and the tips from our daily radio show to improve your abilities and fill out the winning lineup. Our MLB daily fantasy tips and suggestions article is different in that we’re not looking for the top scorers, but for the best values so that you can get the edge that you need in order to save money for the game’s best players.
The salaries listed are from DraftKings:
Here are the top teams to stack for July 5:
Cleveland – The Indians had a #PartyAtNapolis to pull of a big win on Monday night in front of the remnants of a sellout house after a long rain delay. It’s the type of win that can help a team get over fatigue. The Indians are definitely fatigued, but a matchup with Anibal Sanchez should also energize them. On the season, Sanchez owns a 6.05 ERA with a 5.79 FIP and a 5.24 xFIP. He’s given up 16 HR in just 74.1 innings of work and his peripherals have fallen across the board. The Indians should get some good swings tonight.
Boston – AJ Griffin was surprisingly good in his return from the DL last week at Yankee Stadium. He may meet his match tonight. The Red Sox continue to be the best lineup across the board against right-handed pitching and the fly ball stylings of Griffin aren’t conducive to the bandbox that is Fenway Park. Boston is now 29.7 wRAA better than the next closest team against RHP and has a .360 wOBA in that split.
Toronto – Chris Young and Rogers Centre probably aren’t much of a combination. The Blue Jays are slowly, but surely coming around for this season. The offense has started to get it going, even in the absence of Jose Bautista, with a .344 wOBA over the last couple of weeks. A couple of decent outings for Chris Young have lowered his numbers to 6.24/7.56/5.29, but that awful FIP really stands out because he’s allowed 22 HR in just 57.2 innings of work, which is an astronomical number.
Here are the top value hitters for July 5:
Robbie Grossman ($3,200) – Robbie Grossman got to celebrate American Independence with a day off on Monday, so he should be ready to go tonight against Sean Manaea. Grossman owns a .382/.433/.636 small sample size slash line against southpaws on the season and he is one of the rare switch hitters that fares a lot better from the right side of the plate. He’s now a .282/.333/.395 guy from the right side and should be batting in a premier spot in Paul Molitor’s lineup.
Trevor Story ($3,400) – When the opportunity arises to speculate on cheap power in DFS, you have to do it. Everybody knows that Trevor Story strikes out a ton and that Madison Bumgarner is an elite starting pitcher, but Story, in 48 PA, does have a .310/.396/.571 slash against left-handed pitching away from the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field. Is that significant or predictive? Probably not, but he’s hitting okay away from home and has enough power potential to be included in your lineup.
Alex Rodriguez ($3,500) – It’s not just a collection of #narratives with Alex Rodriguez. He’s nearing the end of the line and some believe he already crossed it. But, he’s still a reasonable buy-low guy at this price point against a left-handed pitcher. A-Rod has a .263/.306/.474 split against southpaws on the year after posting a .263/.394/.532 last season. Dual position eligibility in DFS is a nice bonus, since he can’t play any position in real life.
Here are the top value pitchers for July 5:
Chris Tillman ($7,000) – We’ll have to see how long Chris Tillman is able to pull rabbits from his top hat, but his increased slider/cutter usage has worked wonders this season. We’ve seen some regression recently, as his ERA is now 3.71 with a 4.35 FIP and a 4.28 xFIP, but he’s still recording strikeouts at a decent clip and has a bit of a safety net with a start at Dodger Stadium.
Dallas Keuchel ($7,600) – The reigning AL Cy Young Award winner feels like he’s on the cusp of turning a corner. He’s started to get some more strikeouts over his last six starts and the Mariners are an average offense against left-handed pitching. With the Astros surging and the Mariners in the tank a little bit, this is a good opportunity to get Keuchel at a reasonable price with a lot of platoon advantages throughout the game.
Steven Matz ($8,300) – The injury concerns are very real for Steven Matz, but he’s still posted spectacular numbers with great peripherals this season. He’s just shy of a strikeout per inning with a 3.40 ERA, 3.24 FIP, and a 3.32 xFIP. The Marlins are 20th in wOBA against LHP and have a 94 wRC+, so they have struggled with southpaws this season. That makes Matz an even more attractive play at a very reasonable price.