We’ve got a lot of day baseball on the slate today, with eight early games and seven night games. It’s officially the dog days of summer for a lot of teams, who may have had their last off day prior to the All-Star Break or may have it coming up tomorrow or next Monday. Because of that, it’s important to make sure that the lineups are going to shake out as expected. In the meantime, we’ll give you some ideas based on the matchups and you can adjust accordingly. We’ll also have players/teams from each segment of the day.
Remember that our column here at BangTheBook is centered exclusively on finding value. You know who the good players are. So does everybody else. It’s those under-the-radar guys that you pair with those high-salary players that allow you to come out on top.
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The salaries listed are from DraftKings:
Here are the top teams to stack for June 22:
Arizona (early) – The only viable stacking option for the day games is probably the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks take on JA Happ and it is a getaway day game for them, so that is a bit of a worry. But, Arizona is the best offense in baseball against left-handed pitching by wOBA at .358. They have the highest SLG at .493. Happ shows some signs of regression with a 3.41 ERA, but a 4.54 FIP and a 4.54 xFIP.
Baltimore (late) – Erik Johnson will make his third start for the Padres and the first two went poorly. He’s given up 10 runs on 16 hits in 10.2 innings of work and has now given up 10 home runs out of the 104 batters he has faced. Taking on the Baltimore Orioles at Camden Yards probably won’t go much better for him. The Orioles are third in wOBA against right-handed pitching and rank second in SLG.
Texas (late) – Dan Straily’s rough outing last time out is probably a sign of things to come. The Reds right-hander has a 3.66 ERA, but he has a 4.38 FIP and a 4.68 xFIP. He’s stranded 77.6 percent of his baserunners thanks to a .239 BABIP, which seems pretty unsustainable. He’s been really fortunate against lefties with a .180/.313/.318 slash, even though he only has a 30/25 K/BB ratio in 178 plate appearances.
Here are the top value hitters for June 22:
Ryan Raburn (early) ($2,800) – CC Sabathia’s renaissance has been impressive, but Ryan Raburn might be able to scratch out a nice day against the left-hander. Raburn is having a little bit of a down year, but he’s batting .245/.359/.509 against lefties on the year. It’s not Coors-inflated either, since Raburn has a .292/.469/.583 slash against lefties on the road this season. He’s certainly worth a look at this price.
Yasmany Tomas (early) ($3,400) – One of the reasons the Diamondbacks have been so good against lefties is Yasmany Tomas. He’s batting .333/.397/.667 against southpaws on the season and has already hit six dingers in just 73 plate appearances. His strikeout and walk rates are both a lot better with the platoon advantage and his .442 wOBA is among the best in the league in that split.
Chris Davis (late) ($5,100) – Sometimes there’s value in the most expensive players on the board. With Chris Davis tonight, that seems to be the case. Davis is batting .297/.395/.568 over his last 10 games and draws a very favorable matchup here tonight in Erik Johnson. With a Baltimore team that should get a lot of traffic going on the bases, Davis could clean up in DFS formats tonight.
Here are the top value pitchers for June 22:
Junior Guerra (early) ($6,400) – The safety net of O.co Coliseum is attractive for any pitcher and so is a matchup against the Oakland A’s. Guerra has seen some minor regression recently as the league gets better advance reports on him, but the right-hander takes on an Oakland offense with a sub-.300 OBP against right-handed pitching. They are 27th in wOBA in that split.
Ubaldo Jimenez (late) ($4,300) – I don’t like Ubaldo “The Enigma” Jimenez, but I don’t like the Padres offense either. Obviously, Ubaldo has been terrible. But, he still has some swing-and-miss upside and that’s enough for me to consider him at this price against one of the worst offensive ballclubs in the league. The Padres are 30th in wOBA against RHP and they don’t walk, so that limits their potential against Jimenez.
Julio Urias (late) ($6,900) – Reports are that the youngster will have an innings restriction placed on him after this start, so he’s free to let it fly. The rookie 19-year-old is still looking for his first win and he has a shot to get it here. He’s struck out 29 over 22 innings of work and Dave Roberts might let him go a little bit longer in search of that W. After some early bumps in the road, Urias has only given up three runs over his last 14.1 innings with 22 K and 3 BB.