The Wednesday getaway day craze continues this week, with seven early games and eight night games for your viewing, betting, and DFSing pleasure. We’re just about 10 days away from the All-Star Break and Monday is a holiday, so days off will be few and far between for teams. Managers will be trying to snatch some rest for some of their key players down the stretch run of the first half, so always double check those lineups before locking anything in. With the day split almost down the middle, we’ll distinguish between which part of the day players are on the field.
Remember that our column here at BangTheBook is centered exclusively on finding value. You know who the good players are. So does everybody else. It’s those under-the-radar guys that you pair with those high-salary players that allow you to come out on top.
DraftKings or FanDuel are the industry leaders in ease of use and safe, free transactions. Use these tips and the tips from our daily radio show to improve your abilities and fill out the winning lineup. Our MLB daily fantasy tips and suggestions article is different in that we’re not looking for the top scorers, but for the best values so that you can get the edge that you need in order to save money for the game’s best players.
The salaries listed are from DraftKings:
Here are the top teams to stack for June 29:
Boston (early) – The command profile for Matt Moore isn’t pretty. The Rays left-hander has decent K/BB peripherals, but the command hasn’t been there. Moore has allowed 96 hits in his 89.1 innings of work and 16 of those hits have left the ballpark over the fence. Moore has a 5.04 ERA with a 4.61 FIP on the season and it seems unlikely that he will lower either of those numbers against a Red Sox offense that owns the third-best wOBA in MLB against lefties at .346. Nobody in baseball has a higher OBP, so expect a lot of traffic on the bases.
Cleveland (late) – The Indians had to scratch and claw on Tuesday night to extend their winning streak. Perhaps it will be easier on Wednesday. Joel De La Cruz is making his Major League debut after spending parts of nine seasons in the minor leagues. There’s nothing exciting about his peripherals in any way and he’s moved back and forth between the rotation and the bullpen in the minors. With only 334 strikeouts in 466.1 innings, there’s not much upside to him and the Indians should take advantage.
Pittsburgh (late) – The Pirates have been in a pretty big funk this season, but maybe Wade Miley is what they need to start turning things around. Miley, who has had plenty of command problems this season, is returning from a stint on the DL for a bum shoulder. The Pirates are 10th in wOBA at .330, but well into the top 10 in wRC+ against lefties on the season, including a solid walk rate and decent power. With an extra hitter in the lineup, they carry some extra value.
Here are the top value hitters for June 29:
Josh Donaldson (early) ($5,500) – Josh Donaldson is one of the most expensive players on the board, but it’s a terrible day for picking hitting in the afternoon, so Donaldson has to be viewed as a value player. On the year, the slugging third baseman owns a .342/.462/.575 slash against southpaws and he gets one here in Tyler Anderson. Take as many certainties as you can early, because there’s not a lot at the bottom of the barrel.
Seth Smith (late) ($3,300) – Platoon bat extraordinaire Seth Smith draws a good assignment here against Jameson Taillon. Taillon has had some command troubles this season, particularly against lefties, who own a small sample size slash of .298/.345/.500 in 60 PA. Smith is a .269/.373/.409 hitter with the platoon advantage this season and has similar numbers throughout his career.
Curtis Granderson (late) ($3,300) – Make sure you double check the status of Granderson for tonight’s matchup. Lefties are batting .247/.333/.469 against Max Scherzer this season, who has already given up 20 home runs. Granderson probably has the best left-handed power of any Mets hitter and he’s hit 11 dingers off righties this season with a .466 SLG.
Here are the top value pitchers for June 29:
Kyle Hendricks (early) ($9,500) – Everything sets up beautifully for Kyle Hendricks today. The Cubs right-hander will get to go as long as he can because the Cubs bullpen was heavily taxed on Tuesday night with a 15-inning marathon. It’s a getaway day game and the Reds have very little to play for. Hendricks should be able to spin an absolute gem today and more than validate this price.
James Shields (late) ($4,400) – Things haven’t been pretty for James Shields, but one good approach to betting, and it should apply to DFS as well, is that buying a pitcher, player, or team with a track record at its lowest point is often profitable. It’s been a while since Shields threw a really good outing, but the Twins are 21st in wOBA against RHP on the year and Shields doesn’t have to do much to validate this price to pair him with Danny Salazar or Max Scherzer.
Ricky Nolasco (late) ($7,100) – From that same game, you’re probably a little bit more comfortable rostering Ricky Nolasco. Nolasco is still trying to get that ERA to resemble his advanced metrics. His 4.95 ERA is directly correlated to a 63.5 percent LOB%, which is why his 3.73 FIP and 4.16 xFIP are better indicators of future performance. One worry is the declining strikeout rate, but he should give you length against a White Sox lineup that ranks 23rd in wOBA against RHP.