It’s amazing to watch things change in daily fantasy sports. Recency bias plays with the salaries on a regular basis, particularly for pitchers, which is why Michael Fulmer and Matt Harvey are priced higher than Jose Quintana and Cole Hamels for Friday night’s DFS slate. Matchups matter, obviously, but the changes made week-to-week with pitcher salaries are really interesting to follow.
Remember that our column here at BangTheBook is centered exclusively on finding value. You know who the good players are. So does everybody else. It’s those under-the-radar guys that you pair with those high-salary players that allow you to come out on top.
DraftKings or FanDuel are the industry leaders in ease of use and safe, free transactions. Use these tips and the tips from our daily radio show to improve your abilities and fill out the winning lineup. Our MLB daily fantasy tips and suggestions article is different in that we’re not looking for the top scorers, but for the best values so that you can get the edge that you need in order to save money for the game’s best players.
The salaries listed are from DraftKings:
Here are the top teams to stack for June 17:
Arizona – The Diamondbacks get a very favorable matchup on Friday night against left-hander Adam Morgan. Arizona is third in wOBA against lefties this season with a .348 mark and they are second in SLG, behind only the Tampa Bay Rays. Morgan doesn’t miss a whole lot of bats and has struggled with command, posting a 6.33 ERA with a 5.02 FIP and a 4.87 xFIP.
Houston – John Lamb has everything that the Astros need to have success. Lamb hasn’t been able to replicate his strikeout rate from last season, so he’s not missing nearly enough bats, but he’s missing the zone often and he has already allowed seven home runs in 42 innings this season. If the Astros are able to put balls in play, they’re in excellent shape and Lamb will provide every opportunity to do that. Lamb has a 5.14/5.54/5.37 pitcher slash on the year.
Boston – It’s possible to stack Boston every day with what they’re doing offensively, but a matchup with Hisashi Iwakuma works quite well. The Red Sox are first in SLG against righties at .481 and their 121 wRC+ is the best mark in baseball. They have a wRC of 321 against right-handed pitching, which is 59 more runs created than any other team in that split. Iwakuma has a 4.10 ERA with a 4.44 FIP, a 4.37 xFIP, a declining K rate, a rising BB rate, and the worst HR/9 rate of his career to date.
Here are the top value hitters for June 17:
Jonathan Villar ($3,700) – Jonathan Villar’s assault on left-handed pitching continued last night when he took Scott Kazmir deep. Villar is now a .338/.440/.507 hitter against southpaws and he’s also stolen 24 bases on the year. He’s a great bet against lefties, including those with great raw talent like Julio Urias. Villar’s been locked in from that side of the plate in his 86 PA and he’s worth a look tonight against the inconsistent teenager.
Nomar Mazara ($3,400) – Our old friend has hit the skids a little bit, lowering his price down about $700 from his peak. Mazara, despite a rough go of it lately, is still a .295/.343/.449 hitter on the season and always has the chance to get back on track. A matchup against Michael Wacha could be a good spot, since lefties are slugging .463 against Wacha in 123 PA on the season.
Giancarlo Stanton ($2,800) – Giancarlo Stanton is in the slump of all slumps. A couple days off to figure things out could be beneficial for the Marlins slugger, who is batting just .193/.301/.416 on the season. He draws a tough customer in Jon Gray, but Stanton is an elite hitter that has the chance to break out at any time. As long as he’s priced like this, he has value, no matter how bad he’s swinging it right now.
Here are the top value pitchers for June 17:
Julio Urias ($7,600) – The youngster just keeps getting better. He’s got 21 strikeouts in 17 innings and is coming off of a solid start with 5.1 innings worked and a 7/1 K/BB ratio. Urias is going to be placed on an innings restriction later this month, so he’s got nothing to lose by going all out in these next few outings. The Brewers are 20th in wOBA against LHP on the season and that’s driven by a high BB rate. They haven’t hit for much power or average.
Trevor Bauer ($8,200) – The Indians right-hander seems to have developed a strong rapport with catcher Chris Gimenez. I’m not the biggest believer in cERA (catcher ERA), but Bauer has a 3.29 ERA with a 41/16 K/BB ratio in 52 innings with Gimenez behind the dish. The White Sox are 24th in wOBA against right-handed pitching on the season and have struck out over 20 percent of the time.
Matt Shoemaker ($8,700) – It seems like it’s time to believe in Matt Shoemaker. The Angels right-hander has 48 strikeouts in 38.1 innings of work over his last five starts with a 1.88 ERA, a 1.39 FIP, and a 2.04 xFIP. He’s walked one batter in that span. Even if this is a flash in the pan, Shoemaker is in a good pitcher’s park and has found confidence with that splitter, so he’s definitely worth a look here on Friday at a reasonable price.