Tuesday night is one of my favorite nights for baseball. Everything is structured so nicely without getaway day games or any of the other stuff that throws everybody out of their routines. All 15 games will start at 7:05 p.m. ET or later. Some big series begin and some other big series continue. All in all, this is shaping up to be one of the best nights of baseball we’ve had in a while with a little bit of something for everybody. Luis Severino vs. Carlos Carrasco. Joe Ross vs. Zack Greinke. Scott Kazmir vs. Madison Bumgarner. Some possible offensive shootouts with Anibal Sanchez vs. Yordano Ventura and Taylor Jungmann vs. Dan Haren. The MLB debut of Colin Rea. The Chicago return of Hector Santiago. There are a lot of compelling angles and storylines tonight.
As you know, this DFS article is a lot different from others, because we’re not projecting the best hitters and pitchers to take, rather trying to seek out the best values to add to your lineup. Keep that in mind as you peruse today’s suggestions looking for the magic formula to cash a big winner.
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The salaries listed are from DraftKings:
Here are the top teams to stack for August 11:
Chicago Cubs – Let’s try this again with Taylor Jungmann. Predicting that regression will happen is one thing. Pinpointing exactly when it will happen is another. Even though it should happen with Jungmann, he may just be a guy able to get ground balls to kill rallies. In any event, Jungmann has a 2.26 ERA with a 3.66 xFIP and a 3.62 SIERA over his first 71.2 Major League innings. His .277 BABIP is pretty low for a ground ball pitcher and his 3.5 percent HR/FB% is low for any pitcher. The Cubs are facing him for the second time in two weeks, so they should have a better idea of his arsenal this time around.
Tampa Bay – The nice thing about stacking Tampa Bay is that it is relatively cheap in order to get some top starting pitching. The Rays take on Williams Perez and the Atlanta Braves. In 10 starts and three relief apps, Perez has a 4.48 ERA with a 4.59 FIP and a 4.81 xFIP. Now, with his 10.7 percent BB%, you add an extra hitter to the lineup in an AL park. In two starts since returning from the DL, Perez has allowed 15 runs in 10.1 innings on 19 hits with more walks than strikeouts. It’s a small sample, but at the same time, he’s a guy with mechanical issues that missed more than a month at the Major League level.
Cincinnati – Colin Rea makes his Major League debut with an impressive collection of minor league stats this season. A couple of years ago, there were questions about Rea’s control and command that turned him temporarily into a reliever in the Padres system. From what I’ve read and researched, his arsenal isn’t particularly deep and his slider and changeup still need some work. Even though the Reds have never seen him before, trying to go through a big league lineup with one or 1.5 pitches is not easy to do. There’s a little bit of pop in the Reds lineup and the suppressive run environment of Petco Park may add more return on investment to a Reds stack.
Here are the best value hitters for August 11:
Jhonny Peralta ($3,700) – We’ve had past success with Jhonny Peralta against lefties and we’ll bark up that same tree again here. Peralta owns a .237/.297/.500 slash with a .341 wOBA and a 119 wRC+. You may scoff at the batting average, but a .235 BABIP against southpaws is pretty much out of his control. The key stat is that Peralta has nine home runs in just 128 PA against lefties. Also, Jeff Locke is not very good.
Kendrys Morales ($3,900) – Kendrys Morales has been a highly underrated signing by Dayton Moore and the Kansas City Royals. Morales is up to .292/.348/.467 on the season thanks to a .383/.425/.608 slash over his last 10 games. Anibal Sanchez has had all kinds of command problems this season. Morales, a switch hitter, owns a .276/.342/.490 slash against righties this season. Surprisingly, Sanchez has reverse splits this season, but Morales should be in the thick of the Royals’ onslaught regardless.
Abraham Almonte ($2,000) – The ultimate gamble here. If you want to load up on top players at every position and need a salary minimum filler, the man now known as “Babraham” in Cleveland could be worth a flyer. Almonte has punished a couple of fastballs for the Indians and pitchers aren’t exactly looking at him as a guy to fear. He showed some decent gap power in the minors and has a bit of speed. Again, this is simply if you want to load up on other positions and find a cheap OF.
Here are the best value pitchers for August 11:
Luis Severino ($5,500) – DFS salary generators are right to keep the price low on Severino because of the unknown, but if they’re doing it because of the Indians’ offensive explosion last weekend, I have a bridge to nowhere they might be interested in. The Indians took advantage of a contact-based Twins rotation to shed four months of bad BABIP luck. Severino misses bats and has very polished control for a pitcher his age. Against what amounts to a Triple-A lineup plus Michael Brantley and Carlos Santana, Severino should be good for a strikeout per inning should work deeper than last start.
Carlos Rodon ($5,400) – Carlos Rodon is wild and we all know it. But, he also possesses swing-and-miss stuff and draws the 22nd-ranked offense by wOBA against lefties in the Angels on Tuesday night. The Angels haven’t been overly impressive offensively most of the season, with the exception of Albert Pujols and Mike Trout. Rodon has done a good job of keeping the ball in the ballpark and has the potential to throw a dominant start on any given night. At this price, take the chance.
Madison Bumgarner ($11,100) – Since you’re going to take a high-priced pitcher, my recommendation is Madison Bumgarner. The Astros are a league average offense against lefties on the season, with their walk rate being a bit of a separator, but Bumgarner doesn’t walk anybody, so that advantage is out. Bumgarner has seen a small spike in home run rate, but he’s striking out more than a batter per inning and owns a 2.43 ERA with a .225/.283/.349 slash against at home.