The Chicago Cubs just have to be different, so they and the Chicago White Sox are not considered for Friday’s DFS card due to their 4:05 p.m. game. The reason for this is because most contests will be for the night games and not for the “all day” selection that would include the battle of Chicago. The top prize pools in the Moonshot are for the night games only, so that’s why we will focus on those. There is definitely a lot to sort through today, so let’s see what kind of value we can uncover.
As you know, this DFS article is a lot different from others, because we’re not projecting the best hitters and pitchers to take, rather trying to seek out the best values to add to your lineup. Keep that in mind as you peruse today’s suggestions looking for the magic formula to cash a big winner.
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The salaries listed are from DraftKings:
Here are the top teams to stack for August 14:
Tampa Bay – The best offense in baseball this month is the Tampa Bay Rays, who are lighting up the scoreboard with a .297/.356/.507 slash. It is a fairly small sample size, so you want to take it with a grain of salt. However, the Rays are facing a lefty tonight in Martin Perez and they have excelled against lefties all year long. Their .327 wOBA ranks fifth in all of baseball and their 113 wRC+ is good for third. Perez is a pitch-to-contact lefty without overpowering stuff and that should play right into Tampa Bay’s strengths. Another nice thing about a Rays stack is that they utilize a lot of platoon bats and those often come cheaper in DFS formats.
Houston – One of the biggest betting favorites on the board today, the Astros will take their cuts against Alfredo Simon. Simon now owns a 4.74 ERA with a 4.29 FIP and a 4.42 xFIP on the season and has allowed less than four runs one time in his last nine starts. His days of overachieving are no longer visible in the rearview mirror. With an ugly K/BB rate and questionable command, the Astros could hang big numbers, not just today, but all weekend long.
St. Louis – Tom Koehler takes the mound for the Marlins away from home and that’s never a good thing. Koehler owns a 4.37 ERA away from home with a .255/.330/.414 slash against in his career. This season, Koehler’s ERA has benefitted from six unearned runs, as he has allowed 39 runs and 98 baserunners over 68.2 innings of work. If a pitcher has an ERA split over 4.30 with a BABIP against of .278, that’s not a good thing and something that the Cardinals hitters can exploit.
Here are the best value hitters for August 14:
Logan Forsythe ($3,800) – To illustrate what I mean about the Rays stack, look at Logan Forsythe. Forsythe owns a .279/.362/.604(!!) slash against left-handed pitching on the season in 130 plate appearances. Of his 31 hits, 19 have gone for extra bases, including eight home runs. For what it’s worth, Forsythe is holding his own against righties as well with a .281/.362/.374 slash. But, the righty has more power in a platoon role and that’s what we’ll look to take advantage of today. He’s a great option at 2B.
Marlon Byrd ($3,200) – Byrd is having a fine season for the Reds and it was a bit of a surprise that no contenders were after his services. In a relatively small sample size of 84 PA against southpaws, Byrd owns a .289/.357/.526 slash line on the year. While that sample size is a bit smaller than we’d like, Byrd posted a .773 OPS in 2014, a .959 OPS in 2013, and owns a .287/.339/.465 lifetime slash against lefties. Righties own a .293/.367/.430 slash against Alex Wood this season.
Chris Young ($2,800) – The Yankees are going to have to scratch and claw for anything they can get off of David Price, but Chris Young is one of the guys that could have some success. Young is the dictionary definition of a platoon bat, owning a .348/.408/.652 slash against lefties on the season. That’s 91 percent better than league average and the total package accounts for a .446 wOBA. In a good hitter’s park, if anybody’s going to get to Price, Young is a cheap guy to look at.
Here are the best value pitchers for August 14:
Robbie Ray ($7,500) – Robbie Ray takes on a Braves lineup that has been awful against lefties most of the season. The Diamondbacks’ southpaw has shown strikeout per inning upside and a good feel for pitching this season. He tends to be a fly ball guy and Turner Field is a good park for those types of pitchers. Ray has a 3.13 ERA with a 3.17 FIP and a 3.83 xFIP, but xFIP and SIERA never look favorably on fly ball pitchers. He’s a great value at this price.
Tyson Ross ($8,400) – Tyson Ross is one of the few pitchers that has the opportunity to be overpowering at Coors Field. His extreme ground ball split should allow him to avoid the normal pitfalls that pitchers face going into that run environment. The Rockies offense is pretty bad right now. Their Coors Field-inflated numbers rate well overall, but when park-adjusted, they are a league average offense. You get Ross at a bargain price here because of the Coors Field factor and he should easily be a strikeout per inning guy against a bad lineup.
JA Happ ($6,600) – This one is a little bit of a gut feeling, so we’ll see what happens. JA Happ was skipped by the Pirates and moved to Friday to start the series opener with the Mets. This is a much better park for him to pitch in and I want to see what happens after some additional time on the side with Pirates pitching coach Ray Searage. Searage is one of the best and has turned around guys like Francisco Liriano and Edinson Volquez. Happ does have some strikeout upside and went from a bad defensive team to a pretty good one. There may be value in that tonight.