Eleven night games are on the docket for tonight and those will be the focus of today’s daily fantasy baseball value picks article. There are some very good starting pitchers going in tonight’s games and some that show a lot of promise, so it should be a very good night for finding value. September call-ups can make interesting low-cost plays, especially if you look for new guys that have some platoon advantages. New guys see a lot of fastballs, so they have chances to hit. Of course, they’re also batting low in the order, which is a detriment to their value. Keep all of that in mind as you look over today’s analysis.
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The salaries listed are from DraftKings:
Here are the top teams to stack for September 2:
Toronto – I’m beginning to sound like a broken record, and this is a very square play, but Toronto has to be considered for a stack on a nightly basis. That’s especially true of tonight, when the Blue Jays face Trevor Bauer. Bauer has a knack for allowing walks and home runs and that could give Toronto a big offensive output. Bauer allowed 12 home runs in 105.1 innings in the first half and has allowed 11 home runs in just 51.1 innings in the second half. Hitters are posting a .344 OBP and a .490 SLG over his that span. It’s admirable that Bauer is constantly tweaking things to get better results, but it’s a scary proposition against Toronto because he may think way too much.
Kansas City – Randy Wolf can’t possibly keep doing this, right? Wolf has turned in two quality starts thus far, but that trend should stop against the Royals. Wolf surprised a Texas lineup that is pretty left-handed heavy at the top and then ran into a severely-slumping Angels lineup. It’s a good story, but it can’t possibly be sustainable. The Royals aren’t all that expensive of a stack because they don’t hit for a whole lot of power. Wolf pitches to contact and the Royals have done a lot of damage throughout the season against pitchers that can’t overpower them.
Houston – Which Taijuan Walker do we see on Wednesday? Walker has allowed four or more runs in 10 of his 26 starts this season. His command is a work in progress without question. Walker has some interesting splits this season. With the bases empty, hitters are batting just .210/.271/.332. With men on base, the numbers go up to .313/.356/.556. After a first-pitch ball, hitters are batting .285/.347/.545. After a first-pitch strike, hitters have an anemic .187/.245/.277 slash. This stack has boom or bust potential for sure.
Here are the best value hitters for September 2:
Rougned Odor ($3,100) – The Texas 2B is quietly having a really solid season with a .279/.333/.476 slas in 346 PA. That’s good enough for a 116 wRC+. At second base, that’s some pretty phenomenal production. Ian Kennedy has a bit of a platoon split against lefties, so that should help Odor’s cause as well. Odor has gotten the power stroke going with three home runs over his last 10 games. It shouldn’t come as a surprise that the 21-year-old is getting better as the season goes on. There’s a lot of talent here.
Buster Posey ($3,400) – Clayton Kershaw or not, when you can get the best offensive catcher in baseball at this price, you do it. Posey owns a .321/.378/.474 slash on the season for the Giants and will be hitting right in the middle of the order. As elite as Kershaw is, Posey is an elite hitter in his own right and he’s completely worth taking a chance on at this price.
Mark Trumbo ($3,600) – Mark Trumbo has started to get the power stroke going with four dongs in his last 10 games. Two of Scott Kazmir’s three starts in Houston have been pretty good, but going from Oakland to Houston is definitely an interesting change. Righties have hit eight of the 12 home runs that Kazmir has allowed and Trumbo owns a .275/.316/.528 slash against lefties on the season.
Here are the best value pitchers for September 2:
Aaron Nola ($7,300) – Aaron Nola gets to go up against Matt Harvey on Wednesday night. He’s a huge underdog, so you’re unlikely to get a win, but Nola has shown some plus pitchability through his first eight starts and the Mets offense has cooled off a bit after a really hot stretch that included a trip to Colorado. Nola certainly has strikeout per inning upside with a low walk total and some good all-around numbers. Hitters are only posting a 17 percent line drive rate, so there’s not a lot of solid contact there.
Ian Kennedy ($8,600) – Since the All-Star Break, Ian Kennedy has a 2.32 ERA with a .207/.283/.371 slash against. Kennedy was hurt in April and basically had to rebuild his arm strength and smooth out his mechanics on the fly during the regular season. That led to a really ugly start. Over his last 16 starts, Kennedy has allowed more than three runs on just one occasion and has a 2.63 ERA with a .229/.294/.428 slash against. You could do a lot worse than Kennedy at home.
Matt Harvey ($11,900) – I was really torn between Wacha or Harvey as my high-priced value pitcher, but I’m going with Harvey because he has been downright dominant of late. Over his last 12 starts, Harvey has allowed 12 earned runs and opposing hitters have a .192/.244/.301 slash line. He’s capable of more than a strikeout per inning against a Phillies lineup that is improved, but is hardly the class of the league. The command problems that bothered Harvey early in the season in his return from Tommy John are well behind him now.