It’s a recurring theme, but the Chicago Cubs keep us from having all 30 teams available for today’s DFS MLB lineup tips and suggestions article. All indications are that it could be a good night for offenses, with three five-figure hurlers on the bump at DraftKings salaries and some pretty interesting second-tier guys that could go either way. There are a lot of big betting favorites on Friday. Will that affect the way you set your lineup?
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The salaries listed are from DraftKings:
Here are the top teams to stack for September 4:
Houston – The Astros’ kryptonite from an offensive standpoint is a guy that can strike them out. Mike Pelfrey is not that guy. Pelfrey does keep the ball on the ground and in the park, but it’s absolutely stunning that he has a sub-4.00 ERA. His 4.49 xFIP and 4.65 SIERA are much better indicators of his true talent. I don’t pay a ton of attention to home/road splits unless they’re extremely sharp. The fact that Pelfrey has a 5.59 ERA with a .346/.406/.477 slash with a .383 wOBA against in 66 innings away from home is eye-opening.
Detroit – Let’s go really off the wall with this one. Corey Kluber is the most expensive pitcher on the board for Friday, but he has shown some cracks lately. Kluber has allowed seven home runs over his last four starts. Furthermore, he has struggled with the Tigers in the past because Detroit it willing to hit his cutter to the opposite field. In 13 career starts against the Tigers, Detroit has a .301/.347/.490 slash. Nobody’s going to stack against Kluber, so if this pays off, it will do so handsomely.
San Francisco – How long will the talented Giants offense continue to be held down? It’s been rough without Hunter Pence, but Jorge de la Rosa may be the guy to end the offensive slumber. The big worry for JDLR this season is his walk rate, which has taken a major step back. The command hasn’t been great either, leading to a 4.40 ERA with a 4.32 FIP. The cardinal sin for a pitcher at Coors Field is issuing walks. There’s a reason that JDLR owns a 5.91 ERA at Coors this season after being pretty good there over the last few seasons.
Here are the best value hitters for September 4:
Chris Johnson ($2,200) – The Indians got Chris Johnson because they needed to get rid of Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn. However, Johnson has some platoon value against lefties. The Indians draw one on Friday night in Kyle Lobstein. Despite a slow start against lefties to begin his career, Johnson now owns a .314/.349/.439 slash against southpaws. We’ve had success with platoon bats in this price range throughout the season and the Indians should put up some numbers against Lobstein.
Corey Seager ($2,700) – Seager’s debut was not a fluke. The consensus top prospect in the minors as of Wednesday is now a Major Leaguer and he’ll have every opportunity to prove himself over the next four weeks as the Dodgers look to see what they have for the future. Seager draws a tough customer in James Shields, but he will have a platoon advantage and Shields has allowed a .276/.354/.508 slash to lefties, including 17 home runs.
Tommy Pham ($3,000) – We’ve been down this road before with Tommy Pham against left-handed pitching. He’s batting near the top of the Cardinals order and the Redbirds get JA Happ on Friday night. Between Triple-A and the Show, Pham has a .341/.450/.524 slash against southpaws. After a tough stint his first time around, Pham has a .300/.407/.400 slash in 59 plate appearances since he returned in mid-August.
Here are the best value pitchers for September 4:
Kris Medlen ($4,700) – The Tommy John comeback kid has struck out a batter per inning for the Royals through his two starts and has shown good velocity throughout those outings. The lifeless Chicago White Sox come to town now and Medlen has a very favorable matchup and is also one of the biggest betting favorites on the board. At this price, it really doesn’t take a lot to get a quality return on investment and that’s all you’re looking for out of Medlen.
Joe Kelly ($6,400) – Are we finally seeing Joe Kelly’s potential? Over his last 32 innings, Kelly has posted a 1.59 ERA. Kelly still fought with some minor control problems in August, but racked up 28 punchouts in 37 innings with a 2.68 ERA. The stuff is there and scouts and analysts have been perplexed as to how a kid with a mid-90s sinker and a decent breaking ball has had so much trouble. Perception has changed about the Phillies, but we’re still talking about a below average offense.
Julio Teheran ($6,900) – I was torn between Teheran and Mike Bolsinger, but the price difference leads me to Teheran. Matt Wisler was blasted by the Nationals on Thursday, but Teheran certainly has better stuff and has increased his strikeout rate throughout the season. Command is still an issue for Teheran, with eight home runs allowed over 53 innings in the second half, but innings and strikeouts are what we are looking for at this price and Teheran has the chance to go six with six or more punchouts.