With a chance to get this out before the midnight hour on the East Coast, I’ll be able to include the day games for Saturday’s MLB DFS slate. Normally, with the lead time of the article, it’s best to simply focus on the night games. This first college football Saturday of the season is a special one, both because of the CFB DFS lineup tips and suggestions article, as well as a full day slate of MLB action.
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The salaries listed are from DraftKings:
Here are the top teams to stack for September 5:
New York Yankees – Matt Moore is walking into a hornet’s nest on Saturday afternoon. Moore was clearly not ready when he returned from Tommy John surgery and hung an 8.78/5.62/5.79 pitcher slash in 26.2 innings of work. The command was awful, the control was poor, and the barrels were aplenty. Moore got the entire month of August to get things figured out in Triple-A, but this is a bad spot to bring him back. The Yankees are the third-best offense in baseball in wOBA against lefties and have the luxury of a great hitter’s park.
Chicago Cubs – It’s been a while since we’ve tried to stack the Cubs because they haven’t really been worth it. There are some things that I don’t like about Robbie Ray right now. He hasn’t worked deep into games recently and his control is on the fritz. Ray has a change to surpass his previous career high in innings in this start and these are definitely more high stress innings than back in 2013 in High-A and Double-A. Pitchers approaching new thresholds are always scary because you don’t know what to expect. Because of that, stacking the Cubs is worth a shot for the afternoon.
Cleveland – Oh, Alfredo Simon. We meet again. The Indians pummeled Kyle Lobstein and the Tigers bullpen on Friday night and the Tribe seems to be on the warpath offensively again. They knocked around Angels pitching last week and the emergence of Francisco Lindor in the #2 spot in the order has completely changed the dynamic. Simon now owns a 5.09 ERA with a 4.72 FIP and a 4.71 xFIP. With a poor strand rate and awful peripherals across the board, what’s not to like about stacking the Indians? Plus, it comes pretty cheap.
Here are the best value hitters for September 5:
Chris Young ($2,700) – My favorite cheap hitter of the day has to be prototypical platoon slugger Chris Young. The Yankees outfielder owns a .331/.396/.605 slash against lefties this season. That’s good enough for a .422 wOBA and a 173 wRC+. You cannot beat those numbers at this price. As mentioned above, I have major concerns about Matt Moore in this start anyway. Twenty of Young’s 41 hits against southpaws are either doubles or home runs, so we’re definitely talking about a guy capable of putting up a healthy point total.
Domingo Santana ($3,400) – Domingo Santana has power and lots of it. In a bandbox like Great American Small Park, and up against a lefty in John Lamb, Santana has quite a bit of upside for the afternoon slate. Santana has a .338/.419/.574 slash against southpaws. He’s really a “three true outcomes” hitter with either a dong, a K, or a walk. Hopefully he does more of the first one than the second one in this game.
Mitch Moreland ($3,200) – It’s fairly easy to forget about Mitch Moreland, but in just 378 at bats, he has 18 home runs and owns a very respectable .286/.334/.484 slash. Going up against Jered Weaver is a good opportunity to improve on those numbers. Batter vs. pitcher stats rarely mean much to me because they’re too small to be significant, but Moreland has a .313/.333/.531 slash against Weaver in 33 plate appearances. You can take that for what it’s worth.
Here are the best value pitchers for September 5:
John Lamb ($7,900) – While I think Domingo Santana has a little bit of value, the Brewers, as a whole, do not. The Brewers are the worst team in the National League in batting against lefties. Granted, the Rockies have a lower wRC+, but the Brewers have been really awful against lefties. Lamb has shown some major swing-and-miss upside so far this season at the big league level. Lamb has 29 K in 22.1 IP and has shown a lot of promise in his 22.1 innings.
Derek Holland ($7,200) – I don’t know if I’m ready to buy Derek Holland, but this is a friendly price for a guy with strikeout per inning upside against a below average lineup. The Angels have really fallen off the pace since Albert Pujols cooled off and their performance against southpaws certainly leaves something to be desired. This just Holland’s fifth start, so, much like Lamb, some bust potential is there. But, Holland has a 20/1 K/BB ratio over his three starts back.
Lance McCullers ($9,200) – Speaking of strikeout per inning upside, the Twins just faced Lance McCullers last week and that’s what he did. He was a little bit erratic after a couple extra days of rest and will have a similar layoff between starts here, but he should be better equipped to handle it in this outing. The four walks he allowed last start tied a season high, so expect the Astros to fix those control issues. No lineup in baseball has a worse offense against fastballs than the Twins, who are 34.3 runs below average this season.