The MLB daily fantasy season is winding down. Hopefully it has been profitable for you. Today’s focus is college football in the betting and DFS world, and I have some thoughts on that here, but we’re never going to forget about baseball here at BangTheBook. We’ll focus on the 11 night games for today with some strange things during the day like doubleheaders and suspended games and those always have an effect on lineups. We’ll stick to the basics for this one.
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The salaries listed are from DraftKings:
Here are the top teams to stack for September 12:
Texas – The Rangers draw Sean Nolin on Saturday, a fly ball pitcher with some shaky peripherals. Nolin labored through six innings against the Mariners last time out with three earned over six on five hits with three walks and one strikeout. He doesn’t miss a whole lot of bats and a high number of fly balls allowed makes for a really bad combination in Arlington. About the only thing that Nolin has going for him is that he throws left-handed and the Rangers are 21st in wOBA against lefties. I wouldn’t be worried about that here, as not all left-handers are created equal.
Los Angeles Dodgers – The Dodgers take on Rubby de la Rosa on Saturday and RDLR has some second half regression coming his way. He has a strand rate of almost 82 percent and a very low BABIP against, which is something we don’t often see from pitchers with poor command. The Diamondbacks are a great defensive team, but a .261 BABIP isn’t sustainable for RDLR. Also, the Dodgers have a handful of quality left-handed sticks and lefties are batting .306/.370/.557 this season against de la Rosa.
Philadelphia – It might be a little bit rainy in Philly today, so keep an eye out for the weather reports, but Dan Haren is on the bump for the Cubs. Haren has been hit or miss with the Cubs, allowing at least three runs in each of his first five starts before a couple better ones of late. His last start was the first one in which he didn’t allow a home run since July 12. The Phillies have had some better offensive fortunes in the second half and this is a contrarian stack that could pay off reasonably well if Haren’s command is off.
Here are the best value hitters for September 12:
Jake Lamb ($3,400) – Lamb, who will turn 25 next month, seems to have some value as a platoon bat for the Diamondbacks. He’s been brutal against lefties, but he owns a .287/.346/.437 slash against righties. Some injuries slowed the hot start that he had with platoon advantages, but he’s still been a productive bat when facing right-handers. He’s had some exposure to Bolsinger from being in the system together and that could be a small advantage for him.
Domingo Santana ($3,600) – I’ve gone this route with some success this season and this seems like a good spot to play on Santana’s power. It’s a small sample of 42 PA against lefties, but Santana has a .324/.405/.622 slash. He was a good acquisition for the Brewers in the Mike Fiers deal and there’s some upside in this play against Jeff Locke. His Triple-A PCL stats are a tad inflated, but he has a .355/.442/.603 slash overall this season against lefties.
Carlos Santana ($3,800) – I keep telling you that I don’t believe in pitcher vs. hitter stats, and I don’t, but there’s something to the fact that Carlos Santana has six career home runs in 58 plate appearances against Justin Verlander. Fourteen of Santana’s 15 home runs have come from the left side of the plate this season and he’s been having some more BABIP luck in the second half, which is always a good thing.
Here are the best value pitchers for September 12:
Tanner Roark ($5,400) – With all of the attention on Jose Fernandez, Tanner Roark is a sneaky streaming play on Saturday. The Nationals probably won’t give him a whole lot of run support, but Roark turned in 31 really good starts last season at the big league level and has enough stuff to get by with a strikeout per inning and a low walk rate. Remember that the Marlins are the worst offensive team in baseball against right-handed pitching. That, alone, adds value to Roark.
Roenis Elias ($6,300) – The Rockies are awful against left-handed pitching, so a quirky, unconventional southpaw like Elias could signal bad things for them. Adjusted for park factor, the Rockies are the worst offense in baseball against southpaws. Elias has had a rough season, but there’s some swing-and-miss there and the Rockies haven’t seen him before. He likes to change arm slots and release points and that could wreak havoc on a lineup that isn’t interested in playing games with pitchers at this stage of the season.
Ian Kennedy ($9,100) – Kennedy is pricy for Saturday, but he’s worth the investment against a Giants lineup that doesn’t project to give Madison Bumgarner a whole lot of offensive support. Kennedy had some bad sequencing luck last start against the Rockies, but he struck out nine over five innings. Kennedy now has 46 strikeouts over his last five starts and four of those outings are quality starts. He’s pitched really well most of the season, with more than a strikeout per inning and he has fixed the command problems that plagued him earlier this season.