Another night on the diamond means another night of putting together MLB DFS lineups. There are two afternoon games that will be left out of today’s write-up, as always, but 13 night games give us all kinds of players to pick from. There are some very strange pitcher salaries today, as Jake Peavy and Colby Lewis are fifth and sixth in terms of price on DraftKings, ahead of Yordano Ventura, Marcus Stroman, and Lance Lynn. It’s pretty clear that recency bias is a thing on DraftKings. Let’s see if we can take advantage of that.
DraftKings or FanDuel are the industry leaders in ease of use and safe, free transactions. Use these tips and the tips from the twice-a-week MLB betting podcast, The Bettor’s Box, to improve your abilities and fill out the winning lineup. Our MLB daily fantasy tips and suggestions article is different in that we’re not looking for the top scorers, but for the best values so that you can get the edge that you need in order to save money for the game’s best players.
The salaries listed are from DraftKings:
Here are the top teams to stack for September 23:
Cincinnati – Yesterday was a rough day overall with the DFS article, so we’ll hope for better things today, beginning with a Cincinnati Reds stack against Lance Lynn. How bad has Lance Lynn been lately? I’m glad you asked! He has a 5.34 ERA over his last seven starts with a .313/.413/.484 slash against. He’s walked 20 guys and has struck out 19. There’s clearly something wrong with the Cardinals right-hander. To be honest, I don’t know why he’s even making this start, but it could work to our advantage.
Los Angeles Dodgers – I had high hopes for Chase Anderson this season and he disappointed me. This isn’t a stack out of spite, rather a stack of opportunity. Anderson hasn’t pitched since September 8 when he allowed five runs on five hits, including two home runs, against the Giants. Fifteen days without game action is a pretty significant amount of time and Anderson has a pretty thin margin for error since he doesn’t have overpowering stuff to miss bats.
New York Mets – The Mets get Williams Perez for the second time in 11 days and narrowly missed landing a few different knockout punches when they faced him on September 12. They only scored three runs, but banged out eight hits and walked three times. Perez has a 5.16 ERA, a 4.94 FIP, a 4.83 xFIP, a terrible walk rate and a terrible strikeout rate. There’s not a whole lot to like about him, other than he induces ground balls, so that makes it a little bit harder for teams to score runs. Expect the Mets to string some hits together here and knock him out early.
Here are the best value hitters for September 23:
Freddie Freeman ($3,900) – Freeman doesn’t have a whole lot help in the Atlanta lineup, which limits his return on investment potential, but Bartolo Colon has had below average command all season long and Freeman is the most likely Brave to take advantage. Lefties own a .283/.307/.434 slash against Colon. Don’t let his second half ERA improvement fool you. His BA, OBP, and SLG against are all higher in the second half than they were in the first half. He’s simply getting more batted ball luck in situations with runners on base.
Brian Dozier ($3,800) – We’re getting Brian Dozier at a pretty good price as he tries to get to 30 home runs on the season. As I mentioned last week in my MLB podcast, The Bettor’s Box, it may be a good time to back players that are trying to reach personal milestones, like .300, 30 HR, 100 RBI, etc. Dozier has 27 bombs on the season and is taking on Corey Kluber, whose command has not been all that great over the last few weeks. This is only Kluber’s second start back, so only half of Dozier’s plate appearances will probably come against him.
Matt Duffy ($3,600) – Matt Duffy and the Giants take on Andrew Cashner and the Padres and the Giants may be a sneaky stacking option. If not, look for a guy like Matt Duffy to put up some points. Duffy is on the verge of a 10 HR, 10 SB season and has been one of the most consistent hitters in this lineup. He’s betting .310 with a .375 OBP over his last 10 and .299/.339/.429 for the season. Young hitters sometimes tail off, but Duffy seems to be doing just fine.
Here are the best value pitchers for September 23:
Kyle Hendricks ($8,000) – Hendricks got an additional day of rest once again after a poor start against Pittsburgh last time out. Hendricks is approaching that ERA-xFIP discrepancy that we expect positive regression from once again. He has a 4.22 ERA with a 3.66 FIP and a 3.46 xFIP. He’s got good K/BB peripherals, so a matchup against a subpar Brewers offense should be a good chance for him to right the ship.
Yordano Ventura ($8,600) – The fact that guys like Jake Peavy and Colby Lewis are ahead of Yordano Ventura in the salary column is crazy. As mentioned in the past, Ventura’s biggest problem has been sequencing luck. His strikeout rate is better and so is his ground ball rate. The Mariners don’t see much of the hard thrower, so he should have an advantage in this start and also has some of the best strikeout upside of any arm on the board. He’s absolutely worth a look on Wednesday.
Drew Smyly ($9,500) – I have some big worries about Drew Smyly at Fenway Park, but he, like Ventura, has some of the best strikeout upside of anybody on the board. There’s a lot of value in pitchers that can rack up a strikeout per inning and Smyly definitely has that potential. He hasn’t issued a lot of walks in his 10 starts back from a stint on the DL for a shoulder problem, so he’s not going to hurt himself. If Boston hits him, it happens, but he’s got excellent stuff and that makes it a lot tougher on the Red Sox offense.