We have just six days of regular season baseball left before the playoffs begin and time is running out to take advantage of this daily MLB DFS article. This article will not run through the playoffs with such a small number of teams involved, so there are six opportunities left to use these value plays to fill out your lineup and build up that bankroll. It’s a Tuesday night, one of my favorite nights for DFS, and all 30 teams are in action with night games. The entire DFS catalog is at our disposal tonight as we dig deep for the best values on the board.
DraftKings or FanDuel are the industry leaders in ease of use and safe, free transactions. Use these tips and the tips from the twice-a-week MLB betting podcast, The Bettor’s Box, to improve your abilities and fill out the winning lineup. Our MLB daily fantasy tips and suggestions article is different in that we’re not looking for the top scorers, but for the best values so that you can get the edge that you need in order to save money for the game’s best players.
The salaries listed are from DraftKings:
Here are the top teams to stack for September 29:
Arizona – The Rockies are involved in this game and it’s not at Coors Field, but the Diamondbacks are still worth a look. Christian Bergman has spent most of the season working in relief, but he’s getting some spot starts here in September and that’s a big worry. Even in a relief role, Bergman didn’t miss a lot of bats. Guys with shallow arsenals wind up being relievers with low strikeout rates and it’s hard to see Bergman, who owns a 4.62 ERA with a 4.38 FIP and a 4.50 xFIP having enough stuff and deception to last as a starter. He has a standard four-pitch mix and throws strikes, but a fly ball pitcher at Chase Field is a scary proposition.
Tampa Bay – The Rays get a lefty that they can handle in Adam Conley on Tuesday night. Conley has shown some pretty good stuff with a 3.93 ERA, a 3.76 FIP, and a 3.98 xFIP, but he’ll be facing an extra hitter in an American League park and he won’t have the safety net of NL East lineups with which to pad his stats. Conley has a 4.74 ERA in his 24.2 innings away from the pitcher sanctuary that is Marlins Park. The Trop isn’t a great hitter’s backdrop, but the Rays have been a top-10 offense against lefties all season long.
Chicago Cubs – Josh Smith, who made his Major League debut at 28 years old, has a 7.23 ERA with a 6.27 FIP and a 5.69 xFIP in his 23.2 innings so far. He’s shown a little bit of swing-and-miss, but that can be attributed to being “effectively wild”. He has a 13.9 percent walk rate, has a .347 BABIP against, and has allowed four home runs so far. The Cubs should get a lot of chances to score runs in this game against an erratic pitcher with bad command.
Here are the best value hitters for September 29:
Jose Abreu ($3,900) – Sometimes you look at a player’s stats and you are blown away by what you see. Jose Abreu is a right-handed slugger with a dramatic reverse platoon split this season. Against same-side pitching, Abreu has hit 26 of his 29 home runs with a .308/.360/.549 slash. He has a .385 wOBA against right-handed pitching. That ranks 18th. Only Mike Trout, Miguel Cabrera, Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion and Yoenis Cespedes have higher wOBAs against RHP as right-handed batters. Abreu also has six games left to get his 30th HR of the season and playing guys aiming for milestones is a good way to go about DFS this week.
Chris Gimenez ($3,500) – Against southpaw Daniel Norris, Chris Gimenez should be a big part of the Rangers lineup on Tuesday. In a small MLB sample, Gimenez has a .280/.455/.680 slash against lefties. His career path has been a little bit strange, but as a guy that can catch and show some pop against lefties, Gimenez has been able to hang around for parts of seven Major League seasons. Norris is a fly ball guy, so Arlington may not be very forgiving.
Chris Carter ($3,200) – Power hitters are very streaky, especially ones that strike out a lot like Chris Carter. Carter is hot at the right time for Houston with a .483/.517/1.208 slash over his last 10 games, a stretch that includes five home runs out of his 10 hits. Vidal Nuno has pretty run-of-the-mill stuff for a left-hander, so Carter will have a platoon advantage against a guy that cannot overpower him. He’s an all-or-nothing type of hitter, but if you get more all than nothing, that’ll make for a good night.
Here are the best value pitchers for September 29:
Dan Haren ($6,200) – The Cubs are in a great position to big up a big win on Tuesday night with Dan Haren in the middle of it. The Reds have quit on the season. They’ve dropped nine straight and have only scored 21 runs in those nine games. Even against a guy like Haren, with declining stuff and not a lot of strikeout upside, the Reds won’t do a lot of damage. What Haren lacks in stuff, he makes up for in pitchability. That could be enough for a few strikeouts and a victory at a low price.
Robbie Ray ($6,900) – By wRC+, which is park and league adjusted, the Colorado Rockies are the worst team in baseball against lefties. Robbie Ray throws baseballs with his left hand. Ray has gradually dropped off throughout the season, especially from a strikeout standpoint, but this is a very favorable matchup for him against a team that is historically awful on the road and has nothing to play for the rest of the way.
Marcus Stroman ($7,700) – Stroman hasn’t shown much in the way of strikeout upside since returning from his torn ACL, but I think that changes tonight against Baltimore. The Orioles are one of the most aggressive lineups in baseball and Stroman is able to get strikeouts by playing off of aggression. He mixes his pitches so well and everything he throws has movement. His control and command have already been so good that the whiffs are coming and they should start to show up tonight.