The Major League Baseball regular season is winding down with just four days of games left, barring a tiebreaker (or two) for the AL Wild Card. With a strange Sunday on the horizon, there are just three more editions of our MLB DFS tips and suggestions article. It’s bittersweet to see it come to an end, because it means that the playoffs are upon us, but it also means that it will be a long winter without daily fantasy baseball. You can still play through the playoffs, but we’re not going to be providing analysis because there are so few teams in action.
DraftKings or FanDuel are the industry leaders in ease of use and safe, free transactions. Use these tips and the tips from the twice-a-week MLB betting podcast, The Bettor’s Box, to improve your abilities and fill out the winning lineup. Our MLB daily fantasy tips and suggestions article is different in that we’re not looking for the top scorers, but for the best values so that you can get the edge that you need in order to save money for the game’s best players.
The salaries listed are from DraftKings:
Here are the top teams to stack for October 1:
Minnesota – It’s not an ideal situation for Trevor Bauer on Thursday, as he moves from the bullpen to the starting rotation for his final start of the season. Bauer is a routine-oriented guy and the long layoff between starts may be a big detriment to him. Bauer has thrown one relief inning since his last start on September 13. That’s a lot of time for a tinkerer like Bauer to sit. He has a tremendous work ethic and a burning desire to get better, but the results haven’t been there for a large portion of the season. Outside of the situational stuff, he has a 4.69 ERA with a 4.37 FIP and a 4.25 xFIP. He also has a very high walk rate.
Texas – A lot of people seem to be going with the Angels on Thursday night given the betting line movement, but I’m considering this one from the other side. Derek Holland has been really bad lately, so an Anaheim stack may be the preferred angle of approach, but Andrew Heaney is making the biggest start of his career and he thrives on pitching to soft contact. Globe Life Park is definitely not going to be as forgiving as Angel Stadium, so Heaney will have to be sharp with a lot of nerves. It’s a worthwhile gamble on a night without a lot of great stacking options.
Chicago White Sox – Like I said, it’s a bad night for stacking. Kris Medlen owns a 4.87 ERA in his 38 innings as a starter this year. The arsenal just isn’t that deep and the White Sox, if they still care, can get some good swings in against Medlen. After a very slow start to the season, the White Sox have averaged 4.4 runs per game since the All-Star Break, so they have turned things around a little bit. This game has a suspiciously low betting total for a Medlen vs. John Danks matchup, so this may not work out, but if it does, you should be in great shape.
Here are the best value hitters for October 1:
Travis Shaw ($3,300) – Normally this section is about searching for platoon value. Travis Shaw hits left-handed and is facing CC Sabathia tonight. Surprisingly, Shaw has hit six of his 13 home runs against lefties, in just 80 plate appearances. With a short porch in right field and a pitcher with below average command, Shaw could be a very good streaming option for Thursday night.
Mike Napoli ($3,300) – Is Mike Napoli getting hot at the right time? Napoli has a .367/.500/.800 slash over his last 10 games and has a favorable matchup against left-hander Andrew Heaney. Napoli’s numbers on the season are terrible, but that’s the byproduct of facing a lot of righties. Napoli has a .286/.393/.578 slash on the year against lefties and 12 of his 18 home runs have come with the platoon advantage.
Joe Mauer ($3,600) – Mauer is a pretty good high fastball hitter and Trevor Bauer does his best to work up in the zone with the ol’ #1. Mauer hasn’t had a strong season, but he’s been hitting for a little bit more power lately. This is a really good matchup for Mauer and he seems to be able to have good numbers against pitchers that do work up. I don’t believe in small samples, but Mauer is 5-for-14 with a home run and a couple of doubles off of Bauer.
Here are the best value pitchers for October 1:
Rich Hill ($4,300) – You kind of have to at this price, right? The Yankees aren’t any better than any of the other lineups that Hill has faced so far this season. His performance definitely isn’t sustainable over the long haul, but we’re only asking for one more start. At this price, he doesn’t even have to be all that great. Ten strikeouts would be nice, but a decent quality start where he doesn’t get crushed is enough to complement him with Jose Fernandez or Stephen Strasburg.
Patrick Corbin ($7,500) – Corbin might be the best option on the board for Thursday. He draws a Rockies lineup that is positively awful against lefties and Corbin has thrown the ball extremely well since he returned from Tommy John surgery. His last start wasn’t great, but he had zero walks in his previous four starts with no more than two runs allowed. He’s just shy of a strikeout per inning and has shown tremendous control. This is a great matchup.
Jake Odorizzi ($8,100) – Odorizzi is another bargain for Thursday night. The Marlins are among the worst teams in baseball against right-handed pitching and this game has the makings of a serious pitcher’s duel. Odorizzi has a 3.49 ERA and a 3.69 FIP in his 27 starts this season. Since sabermetric stats don’t look kindly on high fly ball rates, his xFIP and SIERA aren’t great, but he’s over 21 percent on strikeouts this season and the Marlins are not a very good lineup.